A Climate Realist’s not so short Answers to Hard Questions About Climate Change. Question 1 (of 16) How much is the planet heating up?

1. How much is the planet heating up?

As of February 2016, the Earth has warmed about 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit since 1880, when records began at a global scale. That figure includes the surface of the ocean. The warming is greater over land, and greater still in the Arctic and parts of Antarctica, but there is very little warming in the tropics.

Since pre-industrial times the CO2 level has increased from 280 ppm to 405 ppm, an increase of about 45%, and we know that for every doubling of CO2 temperatures will rise about 1.6 degrees F unless other factors dominate, such as positive or negative temperature feedbacks.

During ice-ages global temperatures hover around 10 degrees F colder with CO2 levels around 185 ppm. Global temperature was about 6 degree F colder than today and in about 4000 year time temperature rose rapidly and we came out of the ice age. During that time, and with a 300 to 800 year delay CO2 rose from 185 ppm to 265 ppm, a 43% rise.  Coming out of the ice age, if CO2 was the only factor,  the effect of doubling CO2 would increase global temperatures by 11.5 degrees F.

Al Gore saw the charts, and got so alarmed that he wrote “Earth in the balance.” What he didn’t take into account was that the major rise in temperature was not due to the increasing CO2, but the loss of albedo when the ice melted. CO2 played a supporting role, a lagging one. Then, around 9000 years ago temperatures stopped rising, CO2 levels stabilized and we entered a period of relative stability. What happened?

The albedo came back, this time in the form of increasing clouds. Once the oceans got warmer and stabilized, there was enough water vapor in the air to make more clouds, and so stabilize temperature. Since then temperatures have been on a slow decline, and the trend was accelerating until the ” little ice age”. There were 3 notable warming periods, the Minoan, the Roman, and the Medieval warming period.

During the Roman warm period wine grapes were grown almost up to the Hadrian Wall. It is well documented, and in Northhamptonshire, England there were at least 9 flourishing wineries..

The Roman Northamptonshire wine
was good, not excessively fine.
So it just goes to show
that Al Gore does not know
of Climate Change past, that’s my line.

The the dark ages came and grapes no longer ripened in England. During the Medieval Warm Period there was at least one cheese farm on Greenland “Gården under sanden”, abandoned as the glaciers regrew, starting the “Little Ice Age”. During the little ice age it got so cold, that in Jan 1658 the Swedish army crossed the Great Belt of Denmark over ice, canons and all,  and sacked Copenhagen. We are still recovering from the “little ice age.” 2016 may have been a warm year, but most years since the ice age were warmer. See Chart.Greenlandgisp-last-10000-newWe are still in the sweet spot of a remarkable stable Climate, only more CO2 will save us from a new Ice Age. We are not yet back to the Medieval warming period, much less the Roman and even less the Minoan. A doubling of CO2 will not get us back to the Roman warming period since the negative feedback from clouds will dominate and limit the temperature rise.

As to the fear mongering claim that “The heat accumulating in the Earth because of human emissions is roughly equal to the heat that would be released by 400,000 Hiroshima atomic bombs exploding across the planet every day,” I can only say that the energy from the sun is equivalent to over 25oo Hiroshima bombs per second, or about 540 times as much as comes from human energy production, about 0.2%, hardly anything to worry about.

Thought for the day: In the middle of “Snowmageddon”, thank God for creating a wonderful ecosystem!

Genesis 1: 6-8 And God said, Let there be a firmament in the midst of the waters, and let it divide the waters from the waters.  And God made the firmament, and divided the waters which were under the firmament from the waters which were above the firmament: and it was so. And God called the firmament Heaven. And the evening and the morning were the second day.

I marvel at God’s creation, especially when it shows its full power. The bird feeder got repaired just in time for the snowstorm, the birds are now flocking to it. We put out the Christmas tree next to it, so the birds can have close shelter when the stealer boys, the Blue Jays come and take over the feeder. I marvel at the persistence of all the small birds, surviving in these conditions.

In Creation, God, the Word and the Spirit created all matter. The water was created before light. And God saw that it was good. That was the first day.

The second day God made the feedback loop of water vapor evaporating,  rising to make clouds and giving rain and snow to form a functioning eco-system. So God took a whole day out of Creation just to make the clouds? And He didn’t even say it was good? He said it was good after all the other days of Creation. In the sixth day of Creation, after creating man, God even said it was very good, and then rested on the seventh day! The reason is the total ecosystem does not function well and be stable until all components, clouds, rain, snow, grass, plants, trees, animals and yes, even man are in place.

The story of Creation explains Creation spiritually, but leaves out a lot of details. To understand the functioning ecosystem one has to go about it scientifically, that is: Look at nature and what happens to Earth when something changes, such as burning fossil fuels and produce more and more CO2. Is that good or bad?

The last ice age ended with a massive melting of ice. The northern ice cap extended as far south as the Finger Lakes in North America and the middle of Poland in Europe. Something caused a disturbance to start the melting of the ice. Once going, more ice melted and exposed bare earth and more ocean for even more warming, and a chain reaction started. What had been a stable ice cap for thousands of years melted in a very short time. The level of CO2 was low during the ice age, but as soon as the ice melted some CO2 got released from the ice, and even more from the warming oceans, so with a lag of about 800 years the CO2 levels rose as well. The temperature rose and rose until suddenly they leveled off in what is called the Minoan optimum, with pleasant temperatures. Since then it has gotten gradually colder with small warm periods such as the Roman and Medieval Warm period, and colder periods, the last of which was the Little Ice Age.

During the ice age evaporation was much less than now. Snowfall over Greenland was about half what it is today, and there were significantly fewer clouds in the ice covered areas, much like Antarctica is today, an ice desert. This is what happens: As temperatures rise, more water evaporates and clouds form more often and earlier in the day causing a strong negative feedback so it doesn’t get as warm  as it otherwise would have been. This limits the surface temperature to about 88F when thunderstorms occur. If no clouds form it can get substantially warmer. Take New Delhi, India for example. During May the sky is without clouds and temperatures can reach 115F during the day. When the monsoons come in June-July the temperature stays below 100F with high humidity.

We are now well into the bog building phase of the inter-glacial period and the next ice age can start at any time. In fact, it was narrowly averted after the little ice age. With burning more fuel, creating more CO2 we delay the onset of the next ice age by a few thousand years. In addition, added CO2 grows more plants, making it possible to feed an additional two billion people on earth without starving. By lessening the temperature differences between the poles and the equator, storms, hurricanes and tornadoes will be less severe. Droughts will be less severe. Water will be more abundant. The only drawback is that floods will increase, but if we know they can come we can prepare for it.

The conclusion after this long harang is: When you see a cloud forming, thank God for providing a functioning ecosystem, and when you see a rainbow in the sky thank him again for his promise.

 

 

 

 

 

 

Eleven signs of cooling. A new little Ice Age coming? (Updated 6/6/2015)

Eleven signs of cooling. A new little Ice Age coming? (Updated 6/6/2015)

Sometimes regional newspapers in faraway countries can produce articles that are newsworthy all over the world. Such is the case with the major Danish newspaper “Jyllandsposten” which acquired worldwide fame for publishing the “Muhammad  Cartoons.” There had been a Muslim honor killing, and the case was publicized incessantly by the paper. The public was outraged, and when the case went to court the Danish court, known for Scandinavian leniency broke with tradition and gave all six defendants hard sentences, including the taxi driver, who just drove the getaway car. This outraged the Muslim community, so they threatened the reporters with reprisals. The editorial board decided they would not be intimidated, so they decided to run a competition “Who could make the best Muhammad cartoon”. So far more than 200 people has been killed because of the cartoons from adherents to “the religion of peace”

Aug 8 2013 Jyllandsposten posted a two page article “The behavior of the sun can trigger a new “Little Ice age”.

JP_1

They should know. During the last little ice age the Swedes, with their whole army went over of the Great Belt on ice and sacked Copenhagen. The year was 1648.

300PX-~2

Nowadays the Great Belt is rarely even frozen over.

Jyllandspostens argument is that we are headed for a new solar minimum of either the Daulton or the Marauder minimum, both leading to significantly colder winters, more storms, and diminished harvests. Above is their front page:

The  Paper Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”!

Could they possibly be right? Some say that global warming “deniers” are the scum of the earth worthy of extinction. Obama suggests we belong to the “flat earth society.” In Jyllandspostens view that is beside the point. They were not cowed by the Muhammad cartoons, neither will they be silenced on exposing the fallacies of the religion of global warming.

Since the main street media never report on these facts I have put together 11 reasons why I believe we are entering a new ice age.

sunspots

#1. It all depends on the sun. The sunspots and its accompanied solar activity goes in cycles. When there are lots of sunspots the sun is more active than when there are few. We are now at a solar maximum and this is the lowest maximum in over a hundred years and less than half of the most recent solar cycles. The next solar cycle is projected to be almost nonexistent. The last time this happened was during the little ice age.

article-2093264-1180A549000005DC-715_468x290

It is to be noted that the actual behavior of the sun is even quieter than predicted. This means colder winters for the next 33+ years.

clip_image002

#2. A new record time for no major hurricanes hitting the U.S. mainland is set every day.

229a8-daysbtcat3plus2014hurricane-wilmaHurricane Wilma, the last major hurricane to strike the United States, made landfall on Oct. 24, 2005.

#3. The number of tornadoes are still way below average in spite of early May 2015 activity.

Annual Tornado Running Totals

 

#4. The arctic temperature over 80 degree latitude was below average every day since from May through August in 2013. This was unprecedented since measurements started. This pattern is repeated in 2014.

meanT_2013

{Source Danish Meteorological Institute)

2014 the pattern continues with warmer winter temperatures due to more snowfall than normal and colder summer temperatures due to the extra melting of last years snow.

meanT_2014 (2)
And again in 2015 the switch from a 5F warmer winter to a cooler spring summer happened early May.
meanT_2015 (2)

#5 Arctic ice content for  2013 was at a 6 year high. Ice is a lagging indicator. If the ice is increasing, temperature has been decreasing for some time. This year will have a higher minimum since there is much more multi-year ice northwest of Greenland.

ssmi1_ice_area_small

arcticice

#6. Arctic melt is larger than the 30 year average, but that is due to soot from China, not higher temperatures.

chinapollutioncloudmelt-water-canal_20342_610x343

China consumes more than 45% of all the coal burned in the world  every year. It is mostly low grade lignite. Even with scrubbers, which are often down for “service” (it costs money to operate scrubbers) there is substantial soot pollution. This soot cloud hangs in the air, and some of it makes its way up to the arctic, carried on by the prevailing westerly winds. Note the soot in the bottom of the ice-lake in figure at right.

#7. Last two years the Antarctic ice cover hit consecutive record highs since measurements started.

 

 seaice.recent.antarctic (1)

#8. Antarctic ice is running well above average,  setting another record in 2013, and is on its way for another record in 2014. The picture above shows we are setting a new all time record for ice anomaly with more than 2 million square kilometer ice than normal for this time of the year. This ice is around the 60th latitude which means the change in albedo from ocean to ice is highly cooling leading to even more ice growth.

image_thumb

The picture below shows an accelerating trend to greater ice anomaly.

seaice.anomaly.antarctic

#9. The continental U.S. temperature records are misleading. Many weather stations are located near airport runways. This is a proper location to give runway information to the pilots but is not well suited for climatological reporting since they report the airport runway microclimate, not true overall conditions. This tends to skew temperature data. If airport data is taken out of the reporting, temperatures now are well below the records set mostly in the early 1900’s. A snapshot from the last week of July:lows_for_july

Even with the suspect temperature measurements there has been no significant global temperature increase the last 18 years 6 months:

clip_image002_thumb3


#10. Northern Hemisphere snow cover is increasing.

nhland_season11

#11. Sandy. Contrary to popular reporting of the unprecedented storm surge during hurricane Sandy there has been two hurricanes with higher storm surges. They both occurred in the 1600’s, during the little ice age and can be explained by a late hurricane coming up the East coast being drawn inland by an early outbreak of cold arctic air.

NE_Storm_Surges

The jury is out. Who are the scum of the earth, members of the “flat earth society?” Who looks at the facts and who is ideologically motivated.

On a brighter note, it may be time to return to good, old-fashioned romance

And one thing more. Increasing CO2 levels will delay the onset of the next ice age. In the meantime  we can enjoy the fruits of increased CO2 levels: Greater harvests, a greener earth, less temperature differences between the equator and the poles, less hurricanes, fewer tornadoes, less large storms, and a more resilient nature feeding more animals and enabling more biodiversity. The colder weather will finally catch up with us, and that will mean widespread famine unless CO2 is increased substantially.

Why am I not worried about the greenhouse effect from CO2?

If CO2 is doubled, global temperatures will increase less than 2 degree F if no gain is in the system. Water vapor increases with about 4% per degree F temperature rise, and so a gain is assumed. The models predict a hotspot in the troposphere over the tropics because of CO2 coupled with water vapor. No hotspot has been found. In fact there is a barely perceptible cold spot  where the hotspot was expected. This is because of the great thermostat of the earth called thunderstorms. When the air is hot and humid enough thunderstorms form and this mechanism controls tropical temperatures to be rarely above 95 degrees F. In desert regions it can be substantially hotter, like in northern India, where it is routinely 115 degree F until the monsoons start, when the thunderstorms keep temperatures below 100.

No such control mechanism exists on the cool side. It will get as cold as the solar output dictates, and the coming cooling is inevitable. It will delay the onset of the new little ice age by maybe a few years.

I am an engineer and look at the earth as an organism that responds to impulses. The Sun gives two types of impulses: day and night, and summer and winter. We can take a look at the seasonal response in temperatures and notice the difference between now and when we had 14% less CO2 in the atmosphere. Fairly simple calculations will yield a 0.4 degree F rise for doubling CO2 levels over water, and about 1.2 degree F rise over land. The land increase has much higher variability between coastal and inland climate, but that is a ballpark number. This is not enough to offset the influence from a less active sun. The imbalances manifests itself in shrinking and growing ice and snowcaps. The trend is for increasing ice and snow, which means we are already well into the cooling phase.

To continue to thrive in an ever cooling climate we will have to find additional energy sources. There simply is not enough coal, oil and gas to sustain us in a quality of living to which we are accustomed, unless we expand the base for energy production. The only viable source of energy left would be expansion of nuclear energy. U235 and Plutonium based energy production have serious drawbacks with nuclear waste lasting for millenia.

May I suggest Thorium based Nuclear power. Here are 22 reasons to switch to Thorium based energy production:

https://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/eleven-reasons-to-switch-to-thorium-based-nuclear-power-generation/

https://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/eleven-more-reasons-to-switch-to-thorium-as-nuclear-fuel/

Thorium nuclear power generation can be made earth quake safe:

https://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/nuclear-power-and-earthquakes-how-to-make-it-safer-and-better/

and finally, here is my (admittedly incomplete) view of why we chose Uranium over Thorium as nuclear fuel in the first place

https://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/nuclear-power-why-we-chose-uranium-over-thorium-and-ended-up-in-this-mess-time-to-clean-up/

A new little ice age is looming! Ten days in new all time record for ice in the Antartics! A Limerick.

NSIDC.org is back in business after the partial government shutdown and published its daily satellite data for ice in the southern hemisphere.

Ten days record ice set down under.

The IPCC torn asunder.

For the Ice does not lie.

Kiss the warming good-bye.

It’s worse than a crime, it’s a blunder.

.

In 2012 NOAA’s South Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent set a new all time record with 11 of the 12 highest levels ever recorded.

These are the top 12 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)!

11 of the top 12 extents are now in 2013!

This must be an inconvenient truth since NOAA isn’t mentioning it.

Day        year       ice extent (million sq. km)

273         2013       19.57088  (Oct 1)

264         2013       19.51394

257         2013       19.51234

270         2013       19.50797

258         2013       19.48591

263         2013       19.48309

269         2013       19.47161

274         2013       19.46862

265         2013       19.46830

260         2013       19.45470

266         2012       19.45418

262         2013       19.45109antarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2013_day_291_1981-20101

Finally, the ice is melting, three weeks after spring has started in Antarctica, but the icepack is 1.1 million square kilometers (around 6 %) above the 30 year average

Eleven signs we are entering a new little ice age.

Eleven signs we are entering a new little ice age. (Updated Jun 25 2014)

Sometimes regional newspapers in faraway countries can produce articles that are newsworthy all over the world. Such is the case with the major Danish newspaper “Jyllandsposten” which acquired worldwide fame for publishing the “Muhammad  Cartoons.” There had been a Muslim honor killing, and the case was publicized incessantly by the paper. The public was outraged, and when the case went to court the Danish court, known for Scandinavian leniency broke with tradition and gave all six defendants hard sentences, including the taxi driver, who just drove the getaway car. This outraged the Muslim community, so they threatened the reporters with reprisals. The editorial board decided they would not be intimidated, so they decided to run a competition “Who could make the best Muhammad cartoon”. So far more than 200 people has been killed because of the cartoons from adherents to “the religion of peace”

Aug 8 2013 Jyllandsposten posted a two page article “The behavior of the sun can trigger a new “Little Ice age”.

JP_1

They should know. During the last little ice age the Swedes, with their whole army went over of the Great Belt on ice and sacked Copenhagen. The year was 1648.

300PX-~2

Nowadays the Great Belt is rarely even frozen over.

Their argument is that we are headed for a new solar minimum of either the Daulton or the Marauder minimum, both leading to significantly colder winters, more storms, and diminished harvests. Here is their front page:

The  Paper Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”!

Could they possibly be right? Some say that global warming “deniers” are the scum of the earth worthy of extinction. Obama suggests we belong to the “flat earth society.” In Jyllandspostens view that is beside the point. They were not cowed by the Muhammad cartoons, neither will they be silenced on exposing the fallacies of the religion of global warming.

Since the main street media never report on these facts I have put together 11 reasons why I believe we are entering a new ice age.

sunspots

#1. It all depends on the sun. The sunspots and its accompanied solar activity goes in cycles. When there are lots of sunspots the sun is more active than when there are few. We are now at a solar maximum and this is the lowest maximum in over a hundred years and less than half of the most recent solar cycles. The next solar cycle is projected to be almost nonexistent. The last time this happened was during the little ice age.

article-2093264-1180A549000005DC-715_468x290

sunspot

It is to be noted that the actual behavior of the sun is even quieter than predicted. This means colder winters for the next 33+ years.

#2. A new record time for no major hurricanes hitting the U.S. mainland is set every day.

hurricanes

#3. The number of tornadoes is at a historic low.

torngraph-big1

#4. The arctic temperature over 80 degree latitude has been below average every day since May 6. This is unprecedented since measurements started.

meanT_2013{Source Danish Meteorological Institute)

This year the pattern continues with warmer winter temperatures due to more snowfall than normal and colder summer temperatures due to the extra melting of last years snow.

meanT_2014Jun23

#5 Arctic ice content for end of July is at a 6 year high. Ice is a lagging indicator. If the ice is increasing, temperature has been decreasing for some time.

icecover_current_new1

arcticice

#6. Arctic melt is larger than the 30 year average, but that is due to soot from China, not higher temperatures.

chinapollutioncloudmelt-water-canal_20342_610x343

China consumes about 45% of all the coal burned in the world  every year. It is mostly low grade lignite. Even with scrubbers, which are often down for “service” (it costs money to operate scrubbers) there is substantial soot pollution. This soot cloud hangs in the air, and some of it makes its way up to the arctic, carried on by the prevailing westerly winds.

#7. Last year Antarctic ice cover hit a new record high since measurements started, Sep 25 to Sep 29.seaice_recent_antarctic

Updated Jun 25 2014

seaice.recent.antarcticj24

#8. Antarctic ice is running well above average, maybe setting another record this year.

image_thumb

#9. The continental U.S. temperature records are misleading. Many weather stations are located near airport runways. This is a proper location to give runway information to the pilots but is not well suited for climatological reporting since they report the airport runway microclimate, not true overall conditions. This tends to skew temperature data. If airport data is taken out of the reporting, temperatures now are well below the records set mostly in the early 1900’s. A snapshot from the last week of July:lows_for_july

Even with the suspect temperature measurements there has been no significant global temperature increase the last 16 years:

rose-_16yrs_hardcrut4

#10. Northern Hemisphere snow cover is increasing.

nhland_season11

#11. Sandy. Contrary to popular reporting of the unprecedented storm surge during hurricane Sandy there has been two hurricanes with higher storm surges. They both occurred in the 1600’s, during the little ice age and can be explained by a late hurricane coming up the East coast being drawn inland by an early outbreak of cold arctic air.

NE_Storm_Surges

The jury is out. Who are the scum of the earth, members of the “flat earth society?” Who looks at the facts and who is ideologically motivated.

On a brighter note, it may be time to return to good, old-fashioned romance

And one thing more. Increasing CO2 levels will delay the onset of the next ice age. In the meantime  we can enjoy the fruits of increased CO2 levels: Greater harvests, a greener earth, less temperature differences between the equator and the poles, less hurricanes, fewer tornadoes, less large storms, and a more resilient nature feeding more animals and enabling more biodiversity. The colder weather will finally catch up with us, and that will mean widespread famine unless CO2 is increased substantially.

Why am I not worried about the greenhouse effect from CO2?

If CO2 is doubled, global temperatures will increase less than 2 degree F if no gain is in the system. Water vapor increases with about 4% per degree F temperature rise, and so a gain is assumed. The models predict a hotspot in the troposphere over the tropics because of CO2 coupled with water vapor. No hotspot has been found. In fact there is a barely perceptible coldspot  where the hotspot was expected. This is because of the great thermostat of the earth called thunderstorms. When the air is hot and humid enough thunderstorms form and this mechanism controls tropical temperatures to be rarely above 95 degrees F. In desert regions it can be substantially hotter, like in northern India, where it is routinely 115 degree F until the monsoons start, when the thunderstorms keep temperatures below 100.

No such control mechanism exists on the cool side. It will get as cold as the solar output dictates, and the coming cooling is inevitable. It will delay the onset of the new little ice age by maybe a few years.

I am an engineer and look at the earth as an organism that responds to impulses. The Sun gives two types of impulses: day and night, and summer and winter. We can take a look at the seasonal response in temperatures and notice the difference between now and when we had 14% less CO2 in the atmosphere. Fairly simple calculations will yield a 0.4 degree F rise for doubling CO2 levels over water, and about 1.2 degree F rise over land. The land increase has much higher variability between coastal and inland climate, but that is a ballpark number. This is not enough to offset the influence from a less active sun. The imbalances manifests itself in shrinking and growing ice and snowcaps. The trend is increasing ice and increasing snow, which means we are already well into the cooling phase.