Climate change and tornadoes. Are they really increasing?

One of the sacred tenets of climate change is that extreme weather is increasing. Is that really so?

Let us look at tornadoes. They occur when cold and hot air masses collide and in the fringes of hurricanes. Sometimes they can also be triggered by frontal thunderstorms. So if extreme weather increases by time, so should tornadoes, both in severity and numbers. Let us see if that is so.

So far this year, the number of tornadoes are slightly below normal:

If we look at “tornado alley”, the state of Oklahoma we see that there has been about the same number of tornadoes for the last  65 years

but but the number of strong tornadoes , F2, F3, F4 and f5 have been trending down for the same 65 years. How is this statistics holding up for U.S. as a whole?

Severe tornado trend is down:

And most significant of all, the worst tornadoes of all are declining. The last F5 tornado occurred in 2013!

Thanks to increased CO2, the poles are slightly less cold in the winter, while the temperatures at the equator are not changing with increased CO2, water vapor is the all dominant greenhouse gas, there is less temperature gradient between equator and poles, leading to less violent weather. While the number of tornadoes stay about constant, the number of strong tornadoes decrease. This is good news.

Climate change and droughts and wildfires.

History shows us there has always been climate change, from ice age to the Minoan temperature optimum to the Roman warm period to the dark ages to the medieval warm period to the little ice age to now. The question is, where does the climate go from here, how much will it warm from here, or will it start cooling again? One question is; will wildfires contribute to global warming, or will the smoke act as a cooling agent? The only way to give an answer as a scientist is to look at what the wildfire trends are. Wildfires have decreased 25% worldwide in the last 15 years!  This is according to NASA:the full article is in https://earthobservatory.nasa.gov/images/145421/building-a-long-term-record-of-fire

and has this very interesting time lapse video of the wild fires of the world:

The question is then: Why are wildfires decreasing?

One possible exclamation, droughts are decreasing. Let us check:

No, there is no discernible trend in droughts.

Since the beginning of industrialization CO2 has risen about 50%. CO2 is the feed-stock for all plants and indeed the earth is getting greener!

Yes, most areas are getting greener. There are a few areas that are getting less green, such as the southern edge of the Sahara Desert, the South American Gran Chaco, the American South West and the edges of the Gobi desert. The global environmental challenges are still enormous, but thanks to the overall increased vegetation the earth can now feed an additional 2 billion people, not to mention provide livable habitat for many more animals.

What increased CO2 does to global temperatures will come in future installments.

Climate change and wildfires. The problem is more due to forest management.

The natural life cycle of forests in the dry part of western United States is rejuvenation and growth, interrupted by forest fires. In fact, the lodgepole pine requires a fire to release the seeds in the cones. Without the fire they will not  germinate. Forest fires every generation is the normal occurrence for the dry, western forests. Then in the 1930’s, to stop the wild fires they started forest management in earnest, dead trees removed and underbrush cleared, and wildfires were cut by over 90%. They also harvested a lot of good, mature trees, but that is a different story. The chart below tell the facts:

Forest fires were very few from the late 50’s to late 90’s. But with forest management comes a price. Nature can no longer support as many birds and animals as before, and some species were already vulnerable and close to extinction. So, partly due to the power of the Sierra Club and other organizations it was decided to return nature to its original state as much as possible. That would be fine except we no longer live in the 19’th century, when California had less than a million inhabitants. It now has 40 million inhabitants and use up all the water that rains on it and more. People have to live somewhere, so they make beautiful settlements in tinder dry forests. This is the problem out west. You can not have settlements in an unmanaged forest and get away with it, the fire will get you sooner or later. The solution is to set aside some forest lands for natural growth, but only where nobody lives and manage all other forests. Climate change has very little to do with western forest fires, there has always been years of droughts, interrupted by torrential rains. As it was in biblical times in Israel and Egypt, so it is in the American west.

CO2 concentration has increased 50% since pre-industrial times causing climate change. Thorium Nuclear Power is the answer. A Limerick.

As CO2 warms up the poles

burned oil, gas and coal play their roles.

CO2 is still good;

makes plants green, grows more food,

and clouds are the climate controls.

We live in interesting times, the CO2 concentration has increased 50% since the beginning of industrialization. In the last 30 years the level has risen 17%, from about 350 ppm to nearly 410 ppm. This is what scares people. Is is time to panic and stop carbon emissions altogether as Greta Thunberg has suggested?As if on cue the climate models have been adjusted, and they suddenly show a much higher rate of temperature increase, in this case what is supposed to happen to global temperatures for a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial times, from 270ppm to 540ppm.

There are two ways to approach this problem. The models make certain assumptions about the behavior of the changing atmosphere and model future temperature changes. This is the approach taken by IPCC for the last 32 years. These models are all failing miserably when compared to actual temperature changes.

The other way i to observe what is actually happening to our temperature over time as the CO2 increases. We have 50 years of excellent global temperature data, so with these we can see where, when and by how much the earth has warmed.

The most drastic temperature rise on earth has been in the Arctic above the 80th latitude. In the winter of 2019 it was 4C above the 50 year average. See charts from the Danish Meteorological Institute:

Note, there is no increase at all in the summer temperatures!

The fall temperature saw an increase of 4C and the spring temperature saw an increase of about 2.5C.

Notice: In this chart the there is no recorded summer temperature increase at all, but the onset of fall freezing was delayed by 3 weeks.

The 5 thru 8C winter rise of temperature is significant, most would even say alarming, but my response is, why is that?

To get the answer we must study molecular absorption spectroscopy and explain a couple of facts for the 97% of all scientists who have not studied molecular spectroscopy. IPCC and most scientists claim that the greenhouse effect is dependent on the gases that are in the atmosphere, and their combined effect is additive according to a logarithmic formula. This is true up to a certain point, but it is not possible to absorb more than 100% of all the energy available in a certain frequency band! For example: If water vapor absorbs 50% of all incoming energy in a certain band, and CO2 absorbs another 90% of the energy in the same band, the result is that 95% is absorbed, (90% + 50% * (100% – 90%)),  not 140%, (90% + 50%).

The following chart shows both CO2 and H2O are absorbing greenhouse gases, with H20 being the stronger greenhouse gas, absorbing over a much wider spectrum, and they overlap for the most part. But it also matters in what frequency range s they absorb.

For this we will have to look at the frequency ranges of the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing black body radiation of the earth. It is the latter that causes the greenhouse effect. Take a look at this chart:

The red area represents the observed amount of solar radiation that reaches the earth’s surface, the white area under the red line represents radiation absorbed in the atmosphere. Likewise, the blue area represents the outgoing black body radiation that is re-emitted. The remaining white area under the magenta, blue or black line represents the retained absorbed energy that causes the greenhouse effect.

Let us  now take a look at the Carbon Dioxide bands of absorption, at 2.7, 4.3 and 15 microns. Of them the 2.7 and 4.3 micron bands absorb where there is little black body radiation, the only band that is of interest is at 15 microns, and that is in a band where the black body radiation has its maximum. However it is also in a band where water vapor also absorb, not as much as CO2,only about 20% to 70% as much. Water vapor or absolute humidity is highly dependent on the temperature of the air, so at 30C there may be 50 times as much water vapor, at 0C there may be ten times as much water vapor, and at -25C there may be more CO2 than water vapor. At those low temperatures the gases are mostly additive. In the tropics with fifty times more water vapor than CO2, increased CO2 has no influence on the temperature whatsoever. Temperature charts confirm this assertion:

Here the temperature in the tropics displays no trend whatsoever. It follows the temperature of the oceans, goes up in an El Niño and down in a La Niña. The temperature in the southern hemisphere shows no trend. In the northern temperate region there is a slight increase, but the great increase is occurring in the Arctic. There is no increase in the Antarctic yet even though the increase in CO2 is greater in the Antarctic and the winter temperature in the Antarctic is even lower than in the Arctic. So CO2 increase cannot be the sole answer to the winter temperature increase in the Arctic.

There is an obvious answer. When temperatures increase the air can contain more moisture and will transport more moisture from the tropics all the way to the arctic, where it falls as snow. Is the snow increasing in the Northern Hemisphere?

Let us see what the snow statistics show. These are from the Rutgers’ snow lab.

The fall snow extent is increasing, and has increased by more than 2 percent per year.

The winter snowfall has also increased but only by 0.04 percent per year. The snow covers all of Russia, Northern China, Mongolia, Tibet, Kashmir and northern Pakistan, Northern Afghanistan, Northern Iran, Turkey, Part of Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Canada, Alaska, Greenland and part of Western and Northern United States.

In the spring on the other hand the snow pack is melting faster, about 1.6 percent less snow per year. One of the major reasons for an earlier snow-melt is that the air is getting dirtier, especially over China, and to some extent Russia. The soot from burning coal and mining and manufacturing changes the albedo of the snow. The soot is visible on old snow all the way up to the North Pole. The other reason is that the poles are getting warmer. In the fall and winter it is mostly due to increased snowfall, but in the spring, as soon as the temperature rises over the freezing point, melting occurs.

So the warming of the poles, far from being an impending end of mankind as we know it, may even be beneficial. Warmer poles in the winter means less temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics, leading to less severe storms. They will still be there, but less severe.

There is one great benefit of increased CO2, the greening of the earth.

Thanks to this greening, accomplished with only the fertilizing effect of CO2, the earth can now keep another 2 billion people from starvation, not to mention what it does to increase wild plants and wildlife. More vegetation also helps to combat erosion.

Having said that, I am still a conservationist. Coal, oil and gas will run out at some time, and I for one would like to save some for future generations, not yet born. In addition I would like to minimize the need for mining, which can be quite destructive to the environment.

The best solution is to switch most electricity generation to Thorium molten salt nuclear power. There are many reasons why this should be done as a priority.

Here are some of them:

The case for Thorium. 1. A million year supply of Thorium available worldwide.

The case for Thorium. 2. Thorium already mined, ready to be extracted.

The case for Thorium. 3. Thorium based nuclear power produces 0.012 percent as much TRansUranium waste products as traditional nuclear power.

The case for Thorium. 4. Thorium based nuclear power will produce Plutonium-238, needed for space exploration.

The case for Thorium. 5. Thorium nuclear power is only realistic solution to power space colonies.

The case for Thorium. 6. Radioactive waste from an Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor decays down to background radiation in 300 years compared to a million years for U-235 based reactors. A Limerick.

The case for Thorium. 7. Thorium based nuclear power is not suited for making nuclear bombs.

The case tor Thorium. 8. Produces isotopes that helps treat and maybe cure certain cancers.

The case for Thorium. 9. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors are earthquake safe, only gravity needed for safe shutdown.

The case for Thorium. 10. Molten Salt Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors cannot have a meltdown, the fuel is already molten, and it is a continuous process. No need for refueling shutdowns.

The case for Thorium. 11. Molten Salt Nuclear Reactors have a very high negative temperature coefficient leading to a safe and stable control.

The case for Thorium 13. Virtually no spent fuel problem, very little on site storage or transport.

The case for Thorium. 14. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Nuclear reactors scale beautifully from small portable generators to full size power plants.

The case for Thorium. 15. No need for evacuation zones, Liquid Fuel Thorium Reactors can be placed near urban areas.

The case for Thorium. 16. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors will work both as Base Load and Load Following power plants.

The case for Thorium. 17. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors will lessen the need for an expanded national grid.

The case for Thorium. 18. Russia has an active Thorium program.

The case for Thorium. 19. India is having an ambitious Thorium program, planning to meet 30% of its electricity demand via Thorium based reactors by 2050.

The case for Thorium 20. China is having a massive Thorium program.

The case for Thorium. 21. United States used to be the leader in Thorium usage. What happened?

The case for Thorium. 22. With a Molten Salt Reactor, accidents like the Three Mile Island disaster will not happen.

The case for Thorium. 23. With a Molten Salt Reactor, accidents like Chernobyl are impossible.

The case for Thorium. 24. With Molten Salt Reactors, a catastrophe like Fukushima cannot happen.

The case for Thorium. 25. Will produce electrical energy at about 4 cents per kWh.

The case for Thorium. 26. Can deplete most of the existing radioactive waste and nuclear weapons stockpiles.

The case for Thorium. 27. With electric cars and trucks replacing combustion engine cars, only Thorium Nuclear power is the rational solution to provide the extra electric power needed.

The case for Thorium 28. The race for space colonies is on. Only Molten Salt Thorium Nuclear reactors can fit the bill.

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lenbilen

Retired engineer, graduated from Chalmers Technical University a long time ago with a degree in Technical Physics. Career in Aerospace, Analytical Chemistry, computer chip manufacturing and finally adjunct faculty at Pennsylvania State University, taught just one course in Computer Engineering, the Capstone Course.

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The Swedish COVID-19 experience, approaching herd immunity? Maybe they were right after all.

Deaths from the China virus is going down in Sweden. In total there has been  82,972 cases and 5,766 deaths from a population of 10,106,111 people.

Their case and death rate per million inhabitants are 8,210 and 571

For U.S.A. the corresponding rates are 15,711 and 500.

Sweden didn’t have a full lock-down but instituted some restrictions:

National ban on visiting retirement homes.

Ban on public gatherings of 50 people or more.

– The Government decided to stop non-essential travel to Sweden from countries outside the EU.

– New rules for restaurants, cafés and pubs, no closings but enforce social distancing and strict hygiene rules.

– Implement measures to avoid crowding of people in queues, at tables, buffets or bar counters.

– Ensure that guests can keep at least one meter’s ( 3 1/4 feet) distance from other people.

– Only serve food and drink to guests who are seated at a table or a bar counter.

– Guests are permitted to order and pick up food and drink, provided that this does not lead to crowding or queues.

– Offer guests the opportunity to wash their hands thoroughly with soap and water, or offer them hand sanitizer.

– Inform guests about how they can decrease the risk for spreading infection.

Sweden did not institute a mandatory mask mandate.

Elementary schools remained fully open.

https://http://www.krisinformation.se/en/hazards-and-risks/disasters-and-incidents/2020/official-information-on-the-new-coronavirus/restriktioner-och-forbud

The Swedish Medical Products Agency, Läkemedelsverket, stopped the use of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine against the China virus on April 2, 2020, until October 31, 2020. Had these medications remained available for prescription by a general physician the death rates would have gone down, probably by about 50% according to over 40 international studies. This assumes medication would have been prescribed as soon as symptoms arose.

Their excuse: “The Medical Products Agency has received signals of a sharp increase in prescribing of chloroquine, which is judged to be related to the outbreak of covid-19. The drug is relevant in several ongoing clinical trials against covid-19. To counteract a shortage situation, a new regulation will limit prescribing to doctors with certain specialist competencies, as well as limiting the dispensing of the medicine.”

In other words: We don’t care if people die before our clinical trials are complete.

source: https://http://www.lakemedelsverket.se/sv/nyheter/utlamnande-pa-recept-av-klorokin-och-hydroxiklorokin-begransas-i-ny-foreskrift.

But to show heart, they add: “An approved drug containing hydroxychloroquine may be dispensed against a prescription from a pharmacy only if it has been prescribed by a doctor with specialist competence in rheumatology, skin and sexually transmitted diseases or pediatric and adolescent medicine.”

https://http://www.lakemedelsverket.se/495e67/globalassets/dokument/lagar-och-regler/hslf-fs/hslf-fs-2020-11.pdf

The Swedish Public Health Agency, Folkhälsomyndigheten, releases a weekly report about the China virus.

The week 31 report includes the following

Page 8: “Of the deaths confirmed since the beginning of the pandemic, 47 percent are from deceased residing in nursing homes. Of confirmed cases in nursing homes, the pandemic has killed 38 percent.”

Page 13: “From the start of the pandemic until the current reporting week, the average age of the deceased was 82 years (median age 84 years)”

https://http://www.folkhalsomyndigheten.se/globalassets/statistik-uppfoljning/smittsamma-sjukdomar/veckorapporter-covid-19/2020/covid-19-veckorapport-vecka-31-final.pdf

Ohio Dept of Health BANS hydroxychloroquine in treating COVID19

COLUMBUS — The Ohio Department of Health has reportedly banned the use of hydroxychloroquine in treating COVID-19. The rule goes into effect Thursday.

Ohio Department of Health spokesperson Melanie Amato made the announcement, saying the drug touted by President Donald Trump is “not an effective treatment.”

According to WHIO, the rule “prohibits selling or dispensing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19.”

This comes after a group of Doctors held “America’s Frontline Doctors Summit” in Washington, D.C., in which the medical experts praised the use of hydroxychloroquine and some said there was no need for a mask mandate or economic shutdown.

The video, which was shared by President Trump on Twitter, was pulled by Twitter, YouTube/Google and Facebook. The tech giants labeled the news conference as spreading “false information.” As an interesting aside, my previous blog entry: https://lenbilen.com/2020/07/28/the-corona-virus-cure-early-treatment-with-hydroxychloroquine-zinc-zithromax-negative-studies-all-dealt-with-late-stage-hospitalized-patients/ can only be searched by bing, duckduckgo and yahoo, but not google. I wonder why.

For as long as as it lasts, here is a comment about the discontinued video:

In Ohio there is about 25 deaths a day, and about half of them would be eliminated if HCQ was endorsed as effective if administered as early as possible a. This means that between now and election at least 1200 lives are sacrificed, all in an effort to prolong the COVID hysteria and ensure a Democratic win in November. And this is for Ohio alone! Forty-four states have limitations on HCQ use to treat Covid-19 as an out patient.

Updated: The next day GOP Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine reportedly urged the state’s pharmacy board to withdraw a proposed ban of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for use as coronavirus treatments.

Under the proposed ban, pharmacies, clinics and other medical institutions would’ve been prohibited from dispensing or selling the drugs to treat COVID-19. But in an announcement Thursday, the pharmacy board pulled back the regulation change, stating it would reexamine the issue.

The case for Thorium 28. The race for space colonies is on. Only Molten Salt Thorium Nuclear reactors can fit the bill.

US reveals plan for nuclear power plant on the MOON that could power lunar Space Force base

NASA astronauts could one day live on the Moon inside a base powered by a lunar nuclear plant.

That’s according to plans shared by the US Department of Energy, which hopes to have the sci-fi power station up and running by 2027.

Nasa may one day build a nuclear power plant on the Moon.

The DoE on Friday put out a request online for ideas from the private sector on how to build such a contraption.

Dubbed a fission surface power system, the station could help man survive harsh environments on the Moon, Mars and beyond.

“Small nuclear reactors can provide the power capability necessary for space exploration missions of interest to the Federal government,” the DoE wrote in the notice published Friday.

Nasa has plans to put astronauts on the Moon in 2024 – the first manned mission to the lunar surface in almost five decades.

Nasa plans to establish a permanent base on the Moon in 2028

 
Nasa plans to establish a permanent base on the Moon in 2028.

The space agency has said it wants to set up a permanent base on Earth’s rocky neighbour in 2028. The base will help launch future missions to Mars.

Questions remain over what will power the base. Nasa would like to use solar panels, but the most power is needed during the 14 day lunar night every month, so nuclear power is the only practical solution.

It seems the space agency, working with the The Idaho National Laboratory and Department of Energy, is at least exploring the nuclear option.

According to the notice published to the DoE’s website, officials are looking for ideas on how to build a mostly autonomous lunar power station.

Only Molten Salt Thorium reactors would fit the bill.

It should work for 10 years at full power and boast a modular design that allows power units to connect together like Lego bricks.

Would-be designers are asked to whip something up that can survive the surface of Mars without modification.

They can be made very compact and modular

The Corona-virus cure: Early treatment with HydroxyChloroQuine +Zinc + Zithromax. Negative studies all dealt with late stage hospitalized patients.

Without a double blind study of the effectiveness of HCQ + Zn +Zmax the evidence is in. This chart show the difference:

Of these countries France stands out. It did not use the HCQ+  package in the beginning, but after two very positive studies the doctors starting prescribing the early treatment, and since then France show a pronounced decrease in new deaths.

Sweden tried another approach: No lock-down, schools open, restaurants serving, stores open, but large gatherings such as sports and music events stopped, only use personal hygiene and practice social distancing. Sweden is now very close to have achieved “herd immunity”, new cases and death have nearly stopped.

The study shown here lists both positive and negative studies. All negative reports have been with hospitalized patients where the second phase, the “storm” has already set in. At this late stage the HZQ+ treatment may even worsen the situation. For these cases stereoid treatments or Remdesivir may offer the best hope. Early treatment, both as prophylactics early intervention were all positive (over 30 studies) whereas late intervention studies were only 61% positive.

Here is but one of the scholarly papers listing treatment options. It has been out since April 6, so the treatment options have been known for a long time. Meanwhile, our medical professionals are waiting for the double blind study, and in the meantime people are unnecessarily dying by the thousands.

Wake up, America!

The case for Thorium. 27. With electric cars and trucks replacing combustion engine cars, only Thorium Nuclear power is the rational solution to provide the extra electric power needed.

It seems that electric powered vehicles are finally taking off, and sales are ready to explode. The Tesla electric car company capitalization value has increased eight-fold in the last half year, and is now worth more on paper than GM, Ford, Chrysler and Honda combined .

If CO2 is the great driver of environmental destruction, never mind that the increased CO2 is feeding 2 billion more people than before thanks to the greening effect of increased CO2, then we should work at warp speed to develop the additional electricity needs that will arise with all electric vehicles coming to market needing charging stations.

It makes no sense to build more coal and gas fired electric plants, replacing one CO2 generator with another, the best wind power sites are already taken, waste, geothermal and solar power is still a pipe dream, so, what to do?

Conventional nuclear power is limited and requires a very long and extensive approval process, partly due to the not in my backyard regulation attitude.  We are already the world’s largest importer of Uranium, and the world’s supply is to a large extent controlled by non allies. .

How do you eliminate all Coal and natural gas electric plants? Look at the U.S usage: (Last  year 2016)

Image result for electric production"

We can see that renewable energy will not suffice. The only real answer is to expand nuclear electricity, but we are already the world’s biggest importer of Uranium. (The Uranium One deal, when we sold 20% of our Uranium mining rights to Russia did not help, but we were in trouble even before ). No, the only real answer is to rapidly develop molten salt Thorium nuclear electricity production. They do not require water for cooling, so they can be placed anywhere where additional capacity is needed, eliminating rapid expansion of the electric grid.

Let us go to it now!

Three approaches to the Corona virus pandemic; Pennsylvania, Sweden, Florida.

The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the world in ways we do not fully understand and is beyond our control, yet all are trying.

The state of Pennsylvania implemented a rigorous shutdown, but left the nursing home people unprotected. Early on in Lancaster County 75% of the deaths were from nursing homes, and the majority of deaths came from care facilities. In most of the state things were not that bad. In Centre county the two first cases were my pastor, who has been to Washington State, and my son’s pastor, who had been in Lousiana, both visiting conferences. Pennsylvania has now partially opened up, and the statistics looks like this:

After an initial peak, the case rate were dropping until June 20, and is now rising. (Do the protests have anything to do with the rise?)

The death rate is not rising, and has so far totaled 7,183 with  about 16 new cases a day, and the rate is halved every month or so, which means that the total deaths would be about 8 to ten thousand. Pennsylvania has a population of 12.8 million, so the death rate from corona virus in Pennsylvania is about 0.07%. Total cases so far is about 110,000 and the sum total of cases should be no more than 256,000 or no more than 2% of the population would get the corona virus.

Sweden, a country of 10 million people took a different approach. They did not close the schools, did not close shops and restaurants. They encouraged personal hygiene, social distancing, and wearing masks where social distancing was not possible. They closed sports and music events and encouraged remote work wherever practical. What were the results? The charts are enlightening:

The daily case rate peaked around June 28 and is now down by more than half. Total cases for Sweden is so far 79,000, and will probably, once this pandemic is over, total less than 100,000 or about 1%

Daily deaths are even more interesting. So far 5,700 have died from this disease. The death rate is now near zero, so the total number of deaths will be less than 6,000, or 0,06% of the population.

As we can see from the charts, Sweden is now very close to herd immunity.

The third case is Florida, a state of 21.5 million people. They did have a very small initial wave of cases, but the big rise started to appear at peak summer season. The charts tell a lot:

 

So far, the number of cases are 415,000, and following Sweden more than half of the cases occurred before the peak, which occurred on July 15, the total number of cases should be no more than 700,000 or about 3.25%

The total number of deaths so far total about 5,800 or about 0.027 percent of the population. About one third of the deaths occur before the peak, so the total deaths should be between 17,000 and 20,000 and then herd immunity is achieved. this corresponds to a total death rate of 0.08%

All three approaches yielded the same result, total case rate is between 1 and 3,25%, with Sweden, doing the least government interference faring the best.

The total death rates  are between 0,06% and 0,08%, and when the corona virus pandemic has run its course, herd immunity is achieved.