Death Valley rains lead to super bloom! A Limerick.

The desert and the parched land will be glad;
    the wilderness will rejoice and blossom.
Like the crocus, it will burst into bloom;
    it will rejoice greatly and shout for joy.
The glory of Lebanon will be given to it,
    the splendor of Carmel and Sharon;
they will see the glory of the Lord,
    the splendor of our God. (Isaiah 35:1-2)

living_prairieIt rained cats and dogs in Death Valley.

Find passable roads, Rand McNally!

See the desert in bloom;

not the feeling of doom,

a wish that is right up my alley!

In 1953 Walt Disney came out with a ground breaking movie. The name of it was “The living Desert” and showed time lapse photography of wild flowers bursting out from what looked like bare rock. My father took me as a little lad to see it in a movie theater in small town Sweden, and I was blown away. Ever since then I have wanted to see Death Valley in full bloom. Now it has happened. Death Valley is in full bloom. But, as with all blessings it comes with a price. Reading the park bulletin I see the following alerts:

Scotty’s Castle CLOSED until 2018 due to flood damage.  Alert 1 , Severity ,closure ,,Scotty’s Castle CLOSED until 2019 due to flood damage. Flooding in Grapevine Canyon from a severe thunderstorm has destroyed the road to Scotty’s Castle, damaged infrastructure and some out-buildings in the Castle complex. more

Closed Roads: Alert 1 , Severity ,closure ,,Closed Roads Titus Canyon, Emigrant Canyon, West Side, and Scotty’s Castle (also known as North Highway) Roads are closed due to snow and mud. Artists Drive is also closed. Please visit our Alerts & Conditions page by selecting “more.”  more

Weather conditions for 2/18 : Rain so far today in Death Valley, 0.66 inches, and more is expected.

For now I am reduced to admire the pictures some other people have taken:

600_447397036death-valley-super-bloom-california-03-blooms0316

 

 

The spillway at the Oroville Dam fails. Blame Climate Change, not the politicians. A Limerick.

The spillway at Oroville Dam:

The “permanent drought” was a scam.

“No more need for repairs,

if it fails,  no one cares.”

“It’s Climate Change. Blame Uncle Sam.”

In May of 2016 California Gov. Jerry Brown made some of the state’s temporary water restrictions permanent. The executive order, in response to the state’s drought, permanently bans wasteful practices like hosing sidewalks and washing cars with hoses that don’t have shut-off nozzles.

“Californians stepped up during this drought and saved more water than ever before,” Brown said in a statement. “But now we know that drought is becoming a regular occurrence and water conservation must be a part of our everyday life.”

Meanwhile, the concerns for the existing dams faded. They would never be filled to capacity again, so why worry about emergency spillways? Regular maintenance and repair work, not of an emergency nature was delayed yet another year, and resources were diverted to other priority items, such as a Satellite program to monitor Climate change  if disaster should strike and Donald Trump, perish the thought, would be elected.

This was in the middle of the last El Niño, and temperatures had only one way to go, up, and with that increasing capacity to hold water vapor. Now the El Niño has been replaced by a La Niña, the temperature are getting back to normal, the 19 year pause is back, and now the excessive humidity is raining out over the Pacific West.

k_street_inundation_of_the_state_capitol_city_of_sacramento_1862This should not have come as a surprise. The Great flood of 1862 was worse. The Oroville Dam spillwater empties out in what is Sacramento river, and flood control by building dams has been successful to avert major flooding like that. Politicians have short memories and even less sense of history. The climate changes all the time. We are now raining out from a very temporary temperature rise, and we know that eventually our descendants will have  to face another ice age. More CO2 may delay that inevitability by a few hundred years, but the long term trend is down. 2016 was still on of the 1000 coldest in the last 10000 years.

 

On Climate Change. What can we learn from the snow?

Having a snow day here at State College, and watching the birds feast on theseeds dsc_0355in the feeder, remembering the temperature was in the fifties yesterday my thoughts went back, way back to a time when I was trying to figure out why it was so hard to calibrate a temperature programmed gas chromatograph  when analyzing samples  from -40C to 275C. During the cryogenic phase water vapor froze on the inside of the oven, and when the oven temperature then rose through the melting point of water, temperature rise took a pause until all the ice was evaporated. As a result, calibration could vary widely dependent on the humidity and how long the oven was in the cryogenic state.
The weather has been unusual this year. After a long drought the Pacific coast has been hit with a seemingly unbroken string of storms, carrying moisture all the way from the Philippines, resulting in record rain and snow. Likewise, in the Atlantic there have been a string of strong storms going from the Gulf of Mexico all the way up to Greenland or Norway, and the storms are still roaring. From time to time the temperature has been reported to be up to 30 degrees warmer than normal, and it has been raining as far north as Svalbard.

A few years ago there was a prediction (was is Al Gore?) that Arctic Sea ice would be totally gone by the year 2015 and the following charts were produced as proof:

arctic-albedo-loss-and-feedbacks-9-638The charts seem to indicate that by September 2015 Arctic ice would be totally gone and all Arctic snow by summer 2014.

Yogi Berra said: “It is hard to predict, especially about the future.” So how are we doing?

Arctic ice started out with the lowest minimum since 2012 and is still at record low levels for this time of the year.arctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2017_day_34_1981-2010

The total sea ice volume is also at a record low for this time of the year: (from DMI, Danish Meteorological Institute)

cice_combine_thick_sm_en_20170211

Couple this with the message that 2016 was reported the warmest year on record, and there seems to be plenty cause for alarm. But then it was reported by whistle blowers that the temperature data is homogenized to better align with climate models, in other words, falsified, so we may have to look for something that does not change over time, like temperature. Snow and ice have the characteristic of freezing and melting at the same temperature, al long as there is no change in what else is in the snow or ice, like soot or salinity.

With all this ice melting, what is happening to the snow? Checking Rutgers’ University Global Snow Lab ice charts it is clear that the fall snow cover is increasing, signifying an about 8% increase in the last 50 years, and surprisingly,  a significant rise in the last 8 years.

This seems to hint it is getting colder.

Not so fast: what happens to the winter snow cover?

Again we see a slight upward movement, about 2% in the last 50 years.

The January 2017 result are in, and the snow cover was the 5th highest on record for January, so the upward trend continues, indicating the climate is getting colder.

But what happens in spring?

The story is quite different with the snow cover decreasing about 10% in the last 50 years.

That must mean the climate is warming.

Let us look at one more piece of smb_combine_sm_acc_en_20170206statistics: The Greenland ice cover.

This fall has seen a lot of snow falling over Greenland, about double of normal, much like the rain falling in California, the result of a string of storms starting in the Philippines, raining and snowing i California, snowing out in the Western states, recharging  themselves with moisture from the Gulf of Mexico, and finally snowing out over Greenland or Norway.

When the storms hit Greenland the temperature spikes, sometimes reaching 30F above normal, but it is still snowing!

This year the snow fallen over Greenland is larger than ever recorded. This means that  al this new-fallen snow will not melt during the melting season, which means the snow albedo is higher this year and will cause less snow melt than in years when the albedo is lower

ice-glaciers-2015-fig3-3c-tedesco_smlThe albedo was constantly getting lower until 2012, and then it again snowed more than normal and the albedo recovered in 2013, from then continuing a downward trend. This year it will probably recover some more, leading to a year of ice gain over Greenland.

Why is the albedo decreasing? Blame China. The last few years they have been building one dirty coal plant every week, spewing out soot and sulphur compounds in spite of their claim to have the best scrubbers. This is the reason for the earlier spring snow melt.

The conclusion?

The effects of  increasing CO2 is mush less than the effects from clouds and what the clouds reflect back into the sky and what they carry in the form of water vapor. We are now seeing the result of the end of the el nino, the raining out of the excess humidity, which happens when the earth again is cooling.

The 18 year pause is back, and is now 19 years.

From Sweden come the trolls, They are climate feminists, cold. A limerick.

From Sweden with love came the troll.

They must live in darkness, their goal.

Must reduce CO2

dark and cold, way to go.

They’re feminists, that plaid a role.

Trolls are very special creatures. They live in the deep forests of Sweden, do a lot of mischief, come out at night and you can see them in the dim moonlight of the most dense woods, but at the crack of dawn they disappear. No one have seen them by day. But for a true image, take a look at the  John Bauer paintings. He must have seen them clearly.

WASHINGTON, DC – JANUARY 23: (AFP OUT) U.S. President Donald Trump signs the first of three Executive Orders in the Oval Office of the White House in Washington, DC on Monday, January 23, 2017. They concerned the withdrawal of the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a US Government hiring freeze for all departments but the military, and “Mexico City” which bans federal funding of abortions overseas. Standing behind the President, from left to right: US Vice President Mike Pence; White House Chief of Staff Reince Preibus; Peter Navarro, Director of the National Trade Council; Jared Kushner, Senior Advisor to the President; Steven Miller, Senior Advisor to the President; unknown; and Steve Bannon, White House Chief Strategist. (Photo by Ron Sachs – Pool/Getty Images)

The newly elected U.S. President Donald Trump went on a signing spree, signing several executive orders the first days of his presidency. One of them was to deny tax funds to international organizations that promote abortions. This didn’t sit well with the Swedes, so they took notice.

Sweden is a very egalitarian society , so naturally the government cabinet since many years must consist of 12 men and 12 women. It is now a very weak coalition between the Social Democrats and the Greens, and they have less than 40% support in the uni-parliament. The Sweden Democrats have 14% of the seats, but all other parties refuse to have any dealings with them, even the opposition. Climate control is the holy grail however of Swedish politics, so they managed to get along well enough to sign a Climate Bill that promised “zero net CO2 emissions by 2045”.

There are those who say that the Green Party vice prime minister Isabella Lovin trolled Trump. Maybe so, for she also tweeted

17h17 hours ago Just signed referral of Swedish law, binding all future governments to net zero emissions by 2045. For a safer and better future.

Well, if zero CO2 emissions is feminism I remain cold. Not even candlelight for Valentine!
Background: Sweden’s prime minister on Thursday criticized climate skeptics within the new Trump administration and warned that all countries need to “step up and fulfill the Paris Agreement.”

“The position we hear from the new administration is worrying” Stefan Löfven told The Associated Press after announcing an ambitious new climate law promising zero net greenhouse gas emissions by 2045 and a 70-percent cut to emissions in the domestic transport sector by 2030.

The Swedish minister in charge of climate policy, the Green party Isabella Lövin, urged European countries to take a leading role in tackling climate change, since now “the U.S. is not there anymore to lead.”

The new Swedish law sets long-term goals for greenhouse gas reductions and will be legally binding for future administrations.

Lovin said Sweden wanted to set an example at a time when “climate skeptics (are) really gaining power in the world again,” and felt encouraged by pledges by China and India to fulfill their commitments to the Paris Agreement.

China is “investing billions and billions of dollars in solar (…) it’s a game changer,” she said warning that “those that are still wanting to invest in fossil fuels will be ultimately the losers.”

U.S. President Donald Trump, who has called climate change a Chinese hoax, has raised speculation that he might pull the U.S. out of the Paris Agreement.

The new Swedish law enters into effect on Jan. 1, 2018. It was developed after agreement from seven out of the eight political parties in parliament.

Oh, as to the picture of President Trump surrounded by only men, there was at least one woman witnessing the signing

donaldtrump88

Duelling groundhogs 2017, a Limerick.

The duelling groundhogs’ predictions:

They come with their voters’ restrictions.

One is hot, one is cold;

all to fit in the fold.

It’s all from the hogs’ jurisdictions.

This was totally predictable. Punxutawney Phil comes from the county of Jefferson, Pennsylvania, a county that voted 78.3% for Trump, so naturally he predicted six more weeks of winter. He is a representative of the 2,623 counties that voted in favor of Trump. No Climate Change here.

The impostor, Staten Island Chuck stems from the borough of Staten Island that voted 58.6% in favor of Trump. But New York City as a whole voted 81% in favor of Clinton, and as the Mayor of  New York City,  Bill De Blasio  was master of ceremonies, he didn’t dare to predict anything but an early spring, remembering what happened to his predecessor, a very unlucky grondhog the very same mayor dropped to the ground, after which fall he (she?) got hurt so badly he (she?) died a few hours later back in the zoo. It was then discovered that Chuck was actually Charlotte, an impostor, but what can you expect from New York City politicians? It didn’t prevent PETA to give De Blasio their award of the year anyway.

Chuck will represent the 520 counties won by Hillary Clinton, nearly all inner city counties, where people live Climate Change. The Urban Heat Island effect has lead to more than one degree heating in the last 30 years, and these concrete jungles will heat up some more even when there is moderate worldwide cooling.

Groundhog day 2017. A Punxutawney Phil Limerick.

The Phil Punxutawney prediction:

Six MORE weeks of winter affliction.

In the Climate change game

it is worth ’bout the same

as IPCC claims of fiction.

 

Here are the Climate models used by IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) Models versus reality:

CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1

Scientists’ march on DC, a Limerick.

A scientists’ march on D.C. ?

It can’t apolitical be.

For they must get their grants

through political chants.

Conform or get cut, can’t you see?

Sometimes in the near future there will be yet another march on Washington. This time it is from “concerned scientists” that want to take politics out of science, be allowed to be true scientists with no biases or prejudices.  To prove the point they have laid down the ground rules for participation in the march and produced this manifesto: There are certain things that we accept as facts with no alternatives. The Earth is becoming warmer due to human action. The diversity of life arose by evolution. Politicians who devalue expertise risk making decisions that do not reflect reality and must be held accountable. An American government that ignores science to pursue ideological agendas endangers the world.

Let’s take a look at that manifesto. There are certain things that we accept as facts with no alternatives. What happened to scientific curiosity? Is science ever settled? Do they mean there is nothing new to discover?

The Earth is becoming warmer due to human action. Well, for once I agree. We are returning CO2 to the atmosphere in increasing amount, and that is good. If nothing else changed, the logarithmic temperature increase with increased CO2 levels would cause the earth to warm up by 0.9C for a doubling of CO2, more if there is a gain in the system, less if there is negative feedback. The gain factors are mostly due to increased evaporation from warmer oceans, the negative feedback is supplied mostly through increased clouds, coming from increased absolute humidity. (I realise there are many other factors affecting climate, but this is a start, science is by no means settled). What is observed is that the earth is getting greener, and the increased CO2 from 280 PPM to 405 PPM makes the earth able to feed another two billion people without starving, not to mention plants and animals, and also use less water in doing so. Check the figure:increaseThe growth without added fertilizers 11%, extrapolated from the beginning of burning fossil fuels to now the increase is about 42%. This is a transfer of wealth from areas burning the fuel to agricultural areas, mostly in developing countries.

The diversity of life arose by evolution. Now that is a limiting statement. While there is great evidence for adaption, a valid scientific explanation for evolution simply is not credible, apart from intelligent design. The math is not there for another explanation, the DNA code is too complicated and complete including repair codes, start and stop codes to induce aging, and with codes to allow for future adaption already built in!

Politicians who devalue expertise risk making decisions that do not reflect reality and must be held accountable. The number of guilty politicians are too numerous to count.

An American government that ignores science to pursue ideological agendas endangers the world. Agree. No government exemplified this more than the Obama Government.  The Trump administration will restore balance in science, no longer excel in nonsense like this from Charles Bolden  “When I became the NASA administrator — or before I became the NASA administrator — he (Obama) charged me with three things. One was he wanted me to help re-inspire children to want to get into science and math, he wanted me to expand our international relationships, and third, and perhaps foremost, he wanted me to find a way to reach out to the Muslim world and engage much more with dominantly Muslim nations to help them feel good about their historic contribution to science … and math and engineering,”