Good news on the corona-virus. Death rates are down drastically in most countries. Sweden is now a leader in COVID recovery.

The Corona-virus pandemic has now been with us half a year and for the first time the trends ate looking better, giving us hope that the worst is over.

In the beginning the worldwide death rate was 8,65% and it is now down to 2.23%, a reduction of 74.2%. Total deaths worldwide are about 700,000 which is still less then the annual TB deaths that amount to 1.6 million, of which 300,000 are HIV positive.

The corresponding numbers for U.S.A :  7.02%  death rate at the beginning of the disease. Ir is now down to 1.84%, a 74% decrease. With unrestricted availability to take HCQ+ we can reduce the death rate even further.

Now it is getting interesting. While nearly all industrialized nations shut down their non-essential functions, such as schools, elective surgery, elective medical diagnostics, non food stores, flights, travel, restaurants, non essential government services and the like Sweden took a different approach. They kept their elementary schools open, did not close stores and restaurants, only mandated increased hygiene and practice social distancing, and then they let the virus rage as a normal flu, and waited for the so called “herd immunity.” Sweden did their best. though to protect the vulnerable.

In the beginning the results were disastrous. The initial death rate was over 21%, it seemed  like a failed attempt, but then things started to calm down. In late spring the death rate had settled down to 9.2%, but then came a second wave of cases and everyone was bracing for the worst. But the death rate  did not rise, and is now down to 0.41%. Let the charts speak for themselves:

New cases do not disappear altogether, they may even rise as sporting events and large gatherings resume.

Deaths are way down. Maybe “herd immunity”  is achieved? Time will tell.

The death charts from Sweden gives me hope, even for a state like Florida. It escaped the early peak of cases, the most vulnerable were protected, so the max death rate was held at 7.74%. In June the teal wave of cases came, and was climbing until mid July, after which the daily new cases have declined. The deaths were rising until Aug 1, after which they too will follow the Swedish decline and “herd immunity will be reached in three months, if personal hygiene and social distancing protocols are still obeyed.  Here are the charts for Florida:

 

These charts follow the Swedish charts, but with a 3 month delay.

 

Dr Fauci knew of the cure for SARS-Coronavirus in 2005. It was Chloroquine. Please release the hydroxychloroquine + Zinc + Zitromax now!

The SARS-Coronavirus appeared first in China in 2002. It spread rapidly, and NIH tried to develop a vaccine it disappeared. What they found instead was that chloroquine (same as hydroxychloroquine, but with more side-effects) was an effective anti-virus fighter, so effective that it could completely abolish the SARS-Covid infection. This was in 2005

Fast forward to 2020. This time they were not going to let the cure get established before the vaccine. Hydroxychloroquine + Zinc + Zitromax is an effective cure if taken as soon as symptoms occur. HCQ by itself is a good prophylactic, completely safe for nearly everybody (even for pregnant women and nursing mothers), and has been approved for Lupus and rheumatoid arthritis for many years without problem. These people take HCQ forever.

It is time to provide HCQ as an over the counter drug.

Here is the WhiteHouse petition. Please sign it if you care to save lives.

Hydroxychloroquine should be sold over the counter in limited quantities, It is safer than Aspirin, Tylenol and Benadryl. Sign the petition

We are making great strides in the fight against the corona-virus. In the beginning the disease had an 8,67% death rate. It is now down to 2.19%.

The corresponding numbers for U.S.A :  7.02%  death rate at the beginning of the disease. Ir is now down to 1.53%, a 78% decrease. With unrestricted availability to take HCQ+ we can reduce the death rate even further.

These are the numbers for every state.

State      Death rate max   7 day death rate now

Connecticut          9.62%     3.22%

New Hampshire  9.33%     5.2%

Missouri                8.96%     0.86% Prescribing hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, and azithromycin for COVID-19 prophylactic is discouraged and not recommended. Prescribers include the diagnosis code or diagnosis with the prescription. Prescribers should consider limiting the amount prescribed.

Pennsylvania       8.81%     1.63%

Indiana                 8.77%     1.39%

New Jersey           8.73%     4.23%

New York State    8.64%     1.79%    Positive COVID-19 test result must be documented as part of the prescription.•Prohibits use of hydroxychloroquine or chloroquine for experimental or prophylactic use.

Michigan               8.58%     0.92%

South Carolina     8.52%     3.09%

Kansas                   7.69%     1.30% Strongly encourages vigilance in processing new prescriptions for chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine •Recommends that if used, chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine should be restricted to patients who are admitted to hospitals with COVID-19 infections.•Urges pharmacists to consider that patients currently taking hydroxychloroquine for FDA-approved indications (lupus, rheumatoid arthritis) could be affectedby increased prescribing and that supplies should be monitored by pharmacists for medication availability.•Recommends reaching out to prescribers to verify COVID-19 diagnosis.

West Virginia       7.68%     1.1%

Arizona                 7.62%     3.08%

Nevada                  7.53%     1.55% Restricts the dispensing of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. The patient must have a diagnosis of COVID-19 and the diagnosis is indicated on the prescription;

D.C.                         7.45%     0.86%

Oklahoma             7.29%     0.65%

Massachusetts     7.24%     4.55%

New Mexico         7.14%     1.97%

Maine                    7%           2%

Mississippi           7.06%     1.62%

Wisconsin            6.97%      0.93%

Colorado               6.96%     1.28%

Rhode Island       6.92%      0.88%

Alabama               6.61%     1.21%

Delaware              6.55%      2%

Maryland              6.16%     1.10%

Washington          5.69%     1.10%

Georgia                 5.24%     1.23%

Kentucky              5.02%     0.93% Prescriptions for chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, mefloquine, and azithromycin may only be dispensed if: The prescription bears a written diagnosis from the prescriber consistent with its use;

Ohio                       4.97%     1.93% Prescriptions for either presumptive positive patients or prophylactic use of chloroquineor hydroxychloroquine related to COVID-19 is strictly prohibited unless the drugs are for use as part of a documented institutional review board-approved clinical trial to evaluate the safety and efficacy of the drugs to treat COVID-19

California             4.82%     1.47%

Arkansas              4.70%     1.20%

Oregon                  4.66%    1.76%

Illinois                  4,66%    1.12%

North Carolina   4.47%     1.27% Rule applies to hydroxychloroquine, chloroquine, lopinavir-ritonavir, ribavirin, darunavir, and azithromycin;•For above drugs, a pharmacist can only fill or refill a prescription if that prescription bears a written diagnosis from the prescriber consistent with its evidence for use;•If a patient has been diagnosed with COVID-19, any prescription of a drug listed above for the treatment of COVID-19 must: Indicate on the prescription that the patient has been diagnosed with COVID-19

Louisiana             4.18%     1.85% The boardoriginally issued an emergency rule to limit the dispensing of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine to address shortages,but rescinded the rule after it received information about a significant donation and distribution of the drugs from the manufacturer, along with the removal of the drug from FDA’s drug shortage list.•It now encourages each pharmacy to exercise professional discretion to dispense limited quantities of the drug as appropriate

Florida                  4.02%     1.75%

Montana               4%          1.4%

Idaho                     3.70%     1.21%  No prescription for chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine may be dispensed except if the following apply: The prescription bears a written diagnosis from the prescriber consistent with evidence for its use;

Vermont                3.6%       1%

Texas                     3.60%     2.56% No prescription or medication order for chloroquine, hydroxychloroquine, mefloquine or azithromycin may be dispensed or distributed unless all the following apply:oThe prescription or medication order bears a written diagnosis from the prescriber consistent with the evidence for its use; The prescription or medication order is limited to no more than a 14-day supply unless the patient was previously established on the medication; and no refills may be permitted unless a new prescription or medication order is furnished

North Dakota       3.6%       0.8%

Minnesota            3.55%     0.70%

Tennessee            3.50%      0,71%

Alaska                   3.5%        1%

Iowa                      2.95%      1.27%

Hawaii                  2.8%        0.5%

Virginia                2.76%      1.40%

Utah                      1.66%      0.97%

South Dakota       1.1%       1.25%

Wyoming              1%           0.5%

Nebraska              0.82%     0.72%

For all states, June 15, the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA) revoked the emergency use authorization (EUA) that allowed for chloroquine phosphate and hydroxychloroquine sulfate donated to the Strategic National Stockpile to be used to treat certain hospitalized patients with COVID-19 when a clinical trial was unavailable, or participation in a clinical trial was not feasible. The agency determined that the legal criteria for issuing an EUA are no longer met. Based on its ongoing analysis of the EUA and emerging scientific data, the FDA determined that chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine are unlikely to be effective in treating COVID-19 for the authorized uses in the EUA.

By the time the patient is hospitalized it may be too late to have any benefit of HCQ+ treatment. It works best as a prophylactic or taken as soon as the telltale sign occurs, loss of taste and smell, shortness of breath, etc. Then is the time to start the HCQ + Zn + Zmax treatment, even before a positive diagnosis is established.

Release HCQ to be sold as over the counter medication. For LUPUS and rheumatorial arthritis patients it is even prescribed to pregnant women and nursing mothers. It is that safe.

Here is the petition to the WhiteHouse to release it to over the counter dispensation. (19287 signed so far)

 

Ohio Dept of Health BANS hydroxychloroquine in treating COVID19

COLUMBUS — The Ohio Department of Health has reportedly banned the use of hydroxychloroquine in treating COVID-19. The rule goes into effect Thursday.

Ohio Department of Health spokesperson Melanie Amato made the announcement, saying the drug touted by President Donald Trump is “not an effective treatment.”

According to WHIO, the rule “prohibits selling or dispensing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for the treatment or prevention of COVID-19.”

This comes after a group of Doctors held “America’s Frontline Doctors Summit” in Washington, D.C., in which the medical experts praised the use of hydroxychloroquine and some said there was no need for a mask mandate or economic shutdown.

The video, which was shared by President Trump on Twitter, was pulled by Twitter, YouTube/Google and Facebook. The tech giants labeled the news conference as spreading “false information.” As an interesting aside, my previous blog entry: https://lenbilen.com/2020/07/28/the-corona-virus-cure-early-treatment-with-hydroxychloroquine-zinc-zithromax-negative-studies-all-dealt-with-late-stage-hospitalized-patients/ can only be searched by bing, duckduckgo and yahoo, but not google. I wonder why.

For as long as as it lasts, here is a comment about the discontinued video:

In Ohio there is about 25 deaths a day, and about half of them would be eliminated if HCQ was endorsed as effective if administered as early as possible a. This means that between now and election at least 1200 lives are sacrificed, all in an effort to prolong the COVID hysteria and ensure a Democratic win in November. And this is for Ohio alone! Forty-four states have limitations on HCQ use to treat Covid-19 as an out patient.

Updated: The next day GOP Ohio Gov. Mike DeWine reportedly urged the state’s pharmacy board to withdraw a proposed ban of hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine for use as coronavirus treatments.

Under the proposed ban, pharmacies, clinics and other medical institutions would’ve been prohibited from dispensing or selling the drugs to treat COVID-19. But in an announcement Thursday, the pharmacy board pulled back the regulation change, stating it would reexamine the issue.

The Corona-virus cure: Early treatment with HydroxyChloroQuine +Zinc + Zithromax. Negative studies all dealt with late stage hospitalized patients.

Without a double blind study of the effectiveness of HCQ + Zn +Zmax the evidence is in. This chart show the difference:

Of these countries France stands out. It did not use the HCQ+  package in the beginning, but after two very positive studies the doctors starting prescribing the early treatment, and since then France show a pronounced decrease in new deaths.

Sweden tried another approach: No lock-down, schools open, restaurants serving, stores open, but large gatherings such as sports and music events stopped, only use personal hygiene and practice social distancing. Sweden is now very close to have achieved “herd immunity”, new cases and death have nearly stopped.

The study shown here lists both positive and negative studies. All negative reports have been with hospitalized patients where the second phase, the “storm” has already set in. At this late stage the HZQ+ treatment may even worsen the situation. For these cases stereoid treatments or Remdesivir may offer the best hope. Early treatment, both as prophylactics early intervention were all positive (over 30 studies) whereas late intervention studies were only 61% positive.

Here is but one of the scholarly papers listing treatment options. It has been out since April 6, so the treatment options have been known for a long time. Meanwhile, our medical professionals are waiting for the double blind study, and in the meantime people are unnecessarily dying by the thousands.

Wake up, America!

Three approaches to the Corona virus pandemic; Pennsylvania, Sweden, Florida.

The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the world in ways we do not fully understand and is beyond our control, yet all are trying.

The state of Pennsylvania implemented a rigorous shutdown, but left the nursing home people unprotected. Early on in Lancaster County 75% of the deaths were from nursing homes, and the majority of deaths came from care facilities. In most of the state things were not that bad. In Centre county the two first cases were my pastor, who has been to Washington State, and my son’s pastor, who had been in Lousiana, both visiting conferences. Pennsylvania has now partially opened up, and the statistics looks like this:

After an initial peak, the case rate were dropping until June 20, and is now rising. (Do the protests have anything to do with the rise?)

The death rate is not rising, and has so far totaled 7,183 with  about 16 new cases a day, and the rate is halved every month or so, which means that the total deaths would be about 8 to ten thousand. Pennsylvania has a population of 12.8 million, so the death rate from corona virus in Pennsylvania is about 0.07%. Total cases so far is about 110,000 and the sum total of cases should be no more than 256,000 or no more than 2% of the population would get the corona virus.

Sweden, a country of 10 million people took a different approach. They did not close the schools, did not close shops and restaurants. They encouraged personal hygiene, social distancing, and wearing masks where social distancing was not possible. They closed sports and music events and encouraged remote work wherever practical. What were the results? The charts are enlightening:

The daily case rate peaked around June 28 and is now down by more than half. Total cases for Sweden is so far 79,000, and will probably, once this pandemic is over, total less than 100,000 or about 1%

Daily deaths are even more interesting. So far 5,700 have died from this disease. The death rate is now near zero, so the total number of deaths will be less than 6,000, or 0,06% of the population.

As we can see from the charts, Sweden is now very close to herd immunity.

The third case is Florida, a state of 21.5 million people. They did have a very small initial wave of cases, but the big rise started to appear at peak summer season. The charts tell a lot:

 

So far, the number of cases are 415,000, and following Sweden more than half of the cases occurred before the peak, which occurred on July 15, the total number of cases should be no more than 700,000 or about 3.25%

The total number of deaths so far total about 5,800 or about 0.027 percent of the population. About one third of the deaths occur before the peak, so the total deaths should be between 17,000 and 20,000 and then herd immunity is achieved. this corresponds to a total death rate of 0.08%

All three approaches yielded the same result, total case rate is between 1 and 3,25%, with Sweden, doing the least government interference faring the best.

The total death rates  are between 0,06% and 0,08%, and when the corona virus pandemic has run its course, herd immunity is achieved.

 

The case fatality rate of COVID-19 is reduced by a factor of 2.65 if HCQ + Zinc is administered as soon as possible. 1.25 Million cases are proof enough!

 

 

This picture was displayed at a Monday July 6 White House press conference. White House press secretary Kayleigh McEnany told reporters that the American death toll has fallen for weeks and the virus fatality rate is below France, the United Kingdom and Germany.

She said the death toll has significantly dropped from the height of the outbreak when the U.S. logged 2,500 deaths per day to 254 deaths on Saturday July 3, according to the article.

To confirm it the case fatality rate for Germany is as of July 15: 4.54 %

The case rate for the world is 4.24%

The corresponding number for U.S.A.: 3.83%

Is that the lowest percentage in the world?

There are more than ten countries with a lower case fatality rate. At least ten of them have one thing in common. These ten countries prescribe the use of  HydroxyChloroQuine to all people that show symptoms of COVID-19, even before a positive test is confirmed.

Turkey: 2.51%

South Korea: 2.14%

Senegal: 1.87%

Morocco: 1.58%

Russia: 1.60%

Malaysia: 1.39%

United Arab Emirates: 0.60%

Costa Rica: 0.44%

Bahrain: 0.34%

Qatar: 0.14%, but since 88% of the population are migrant workers between 20 and 60, the adjusted death rate for the permanent residents would be maybe 8 times higher, or about 1.1%

The total number of positive cases for these ten countries are over 1.2 million, far more than any double blind test could ever produce.

Taking the average, adjusted for the number of positive cases, the average adjusted death rate for ten countries, where people are taking HCQ + Zinc as soon as they are showing symptoms or diagnosed positive, is 1.60%.

This means that the risk of death is reduced by a factor of 2.65 if HZQ + Zinc is taken as early as possible after showing symptoms or after a positive diagnosis for corona-virus!

This means the daily could be reduced by 3700 a day in the world if the HCQ regimen was implemented worldwide.

For the U.S.A. the number of deaths would be reduced by an average of over 400 a day at today’s case and death rates, if HZQ + Zinc is taken as early as possible after showing symptoms or after a positive diagnosis for corona-virus!

COVID response for Sweden and Michigan. Which response is better?

Of all the states in America Michigan is the state that is most like Sweden.

Michigan has a population of 10 million, Sweden 10.2 million

Median age in Michigan is 39.8 years, Sweden’s is 41.1 years.

Michigan has the Upper Peninsula, Sweden has Norrland.

Michigan has slightly colder winters and slightly warmer summers than Sweden, but the average temperature is about the same.

Both Michigan and Sweden got hit hard by the corona virus, but their response was quite different.

Sweden never closed the schools for children under 15, Michigan is still debating when to open the schools again after they were shutdown.

Sweden never closed the stores or restaurants completely, Michigan did.

Both Michigan and Sweden closed large events and other gatherings. No sports, and no concerts.

In Sweden wearing masks is not mandatory, only recommended, as long as social distancing and personal hygiene is practiced.

Sweden did what they could to shield the most vulnerable from the injection, in Michigan they moved COVID infected patients from overcrowded nursing homes in the Detroit area to nursing homes upstate with excess capacity.

Michigan recently delayed the partial opening of the state for another two weeks, one more delay of many. In addition the Governor, Gretchen Wittmer issued draconian regulation on what could or could not be done, leading to protests. One protest sign read:

Other regulations were just as ridiculous, you could go out in a row-boat or a sailboat as long as you were no more than two in the boat, but motorboats were verboten. And don’t even dream about visiting your cottage in the woods; horror of horrors!

How did Sweden and Michigan fare? Check these charts and judge for yourselves:

Michigan total cases as of July 14: 78,914 total deaths 6,330 Sweden total cases 76,001, total deaths 5,455

Cases started rising around Jun 15, two weeks after the protests started

The number of deaths daily has stabilized and remained constant for the last month

The new cases are in a rapid decline. Sweden may be close to have achieved herd immunity.

The number of new death are racing to nearly zero.

 

The evidence is clear. The rise in COVID cases is due to protests, not reopening the economy

On May 25 George Floyd was murdered by a policeman in broad daylight. What followed was protests, night after night in many cities. Over 500 cities have had protest rallies. The rallies, while mostly peaceful all violate COVID protocol, many protestors do not wear masks, social distancing is not practiced, and loud shouting, breathing hard through your mouth emitting COVID mist is going on for hours.

The incubation time for COVID infection is from 5 to 15 days, the COVID cases should start increase about June 8 or so, it took a few days for the protesters to get organized. The typical age for protesters is 20 to 25 years, so death rates would not necessarily increase, since the risk for death from the coronavirus doubles for every 9 years you age.

On the other hand, if the spike in COVID cases is due to reopening the economy, the death rate should follow the increase in cases by about 10 days.

Let us look at the COVID cases for U.S.A. as of July 13:

As we can see, the U.S.A. was on a slow decline in cases until about June 14, and a much larger decline in death cases until about Jul 8. The rise in cases since June 14 is much larger than the rise in deaths. This means the increase in cases is from protestors, not from opening the economy.

A most interesting case is Florida

From new cases being about 1000 per day, they started increasing on about June 8 and are now over 10,000 a day. Death rates on the other hand have less than doubled.

Another interesting state id Arizona:

From about 300 new cases a day up to June 5, it has  since increased tenfold. The death rate meanwhile has less than tripled, which again means it is the young people that are getting the virus.

There has been about 20 million protestors since the process started. It is impossible to contact trace 20 million people, many of which want to do away with all authority anyway, so we will have to settle for herd immunity. Following the example of Sweden herd immunity should start to manifest itself in a month or so, In New York City it has already started.

In any case, we will probably achieve herd immunity before a vaccine is available.

 

 

Sweden was right! No lock-down but hygiene, social separation and limited gatherings will work just as well. Herd immunity is possible to achieve.

As Europe and North America continue suffering their steady economic and social decline as a direct result of imposing “lockdown” on their populations, other countries have taken a different approach to dealing with the coronavirus threat. You wouldn’t know it by listening to western politicians or mainstream media stenographers, there are also non-lockdown countries. They are led by Sweden, Iceland, Belarus, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Surprisingly to some, their results have been as good or better than the lockdown countries, but without having to endure the socio-economic chaos we are now witnessing across the world. For this reason alone, Sweden and others like them, have already won the policy debate, as well as the scientific one too.

Unlike many others, Sweden has not enforced any strict mass quarantine measures to contain COVID-19, nor has it closed any of its borders. Rather, Swedish health authorities have issued a series of guidelines for social distancing and other common sense measures covering areas like hygiene, travel, public gatherings, and protecting the elderly and immune compromised. They have kept all preschools, primary and secondary schools open, while closing college and universities who are now doing their work and lectures online. Likewise, many bars and restaurants have remained open, and shoppers do not have to perform the bizarre ritual of queuing around the block standing 2 meters apart in order to buy groceries.

According to the country’s top scientists, they are now well underway to achieving natural herd immunity. It seems this particular Nordic model has already won the debate.

Because Sweden decided to follow real epidemiological science and pursue a common sense strategy of herd immunity, it doesn’t need to “flatten of the curve” because its strategic approach has the added benefit of achieving a much more gradual and wider spread.

This chart proves the point:

This was in May. It is now July 10, and here are the updated charts:

From a peak of 100 deaths /day and 550 cases/day Sweden is now down to an average of 4 deaths/day and an average of 435 cases/day.

Sweden is well on its way to herd immunity.

How well are the other non-lockdown countries doing?

Iceland  has a total case count of 1882 and a death count of 10, all between March 21 and April 20.  This was achieved by contact tracing and quarantine alone.

Belarus has a total case count of 64,604 and a death count of 454, and the case and death charts look like this:

Here the daily death count has not risen above 7 per day. in a country of 9.5 million.

 

Japan has a total case count of 20,371 and a death count of 981, and the case and death charts look like this:

Japan shows a unique pattern: It looked that they had beaten the coronavirus early, but then in April it started up again, and again in July, but always at manageable levels. Japan is still far away from herd immunity.

 

South Korea has a total case count of 13338 and a death count of 288, and the case and death charts look like this:

The death count rises, then stays constant for about 2 months and then declines, but slower than the new case count. South Korea took another approach than trying to reach herd immunity. They gave HydroxyChloroQuine to all people that showed symptoms as early as possible. The result is nothing short of remarkable, less than 1 coronavirus death per day in a country of 51 million people!

Taiwan has a total case count of 451 and a death count of 7. And this in a country of 24 million!

How is the United States faring compared to these countries? Is herd immunity achievable in the near future? Current cases are 3,250,705 and the current deaths are 136,158, the highest in the world/

United States has a total case count of 3,250,705 and a death count of 136,158, and the case and death charts look like this:

From a peak case rate of 31,000 cases per day and a death rare of 2,200/day the case rate has climbed to 55,000/day and the death rate has come down to about 625/day , and it seems the U.S. is lagging Sweden by about 5 weeks. In about 2 months or so the U.S. should be well on its way to herd immunity.

The death rates would be reduced to less than half if the United States adopted the policy of South Korea (and at least 9 other countries) and began to administer HydroxyChloroQuine to nearly all people that showed symptoms as early as possible.

Quotes from https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-sweden-has-already-won-debate-covid-19-lockdown-policy