The Presidential Commission on Climate security (PCCS). A Limerick

Commission to study what’s best:

The Climate Security quest;

CO2 keeps alive

plants and animals thrive.

The end of the world? No, it’s blest.

Item: March 20, 2019. A federal judge temporarily blocked new oil lease auctions in Wyoming on Tuesday after finding the Department of the Interior “did not sufficiently consider climate change” when proposing the lease sales, The Washington Post reports.

Washington D.C. District Court Judge Rudolph Contreras ruled the government violated federal law and did not fully study the environmental impact of oil development on 300,000 acres of federal land.

Meanwhile, a massive coalition of environmental organizations, activists, and think-tank leaders signed a letter to President Donald Trump supporting the proposed Presidential Commission on Climate Security (PCCS), as well as the work of Trump climate and national security adviser Dr. William Happer of Princeton University.

A small excerpt from the letter:

It (the commission) would be charged with conducting an independent, high-level review of the Fourth National Climate Assessment and other official reports relating to climate and its implications for national security. Serious problems and shortcomings have been raised repeatedly in the past by highly-qualified scientists only to be ignored or dismissed by the federal agencies in charge of producing the reports. Among major issues that have been raised and that we hope the commission will scrutinize: the models used have assumed climate sensitivities to CO2 concentrations significantly higher than recent research warrants; the models used have predicted much more warming than has actually occurred; predictions of the negative impacts of global warming have been made based on implausible high-end emissions scenarios; the positive impacts of warming have been ignored or minimized; and surface temperature data sets have been manipulated to show more rapid warming than has actually occurred.
The letter is signed by over 150 scientists and organizations.

 

Water vapor and CO2 – why nearly all climate models fail.

The candidate Beto O’Rourke

on Climate change is but a dork.

He does not understand

that the world will not end.

Fake News! – Only New Green Deal pork!

Quote from Beto O’Rourke:

“The scientists are unanimous on this. We have no more than 12 years to take incredibly bold action on this crisis, can we make it? I don’t know. It’s up to every one of us. Do you want to make it?”

I beg to differ.

We live in only one world. As a concerned citizen I realize we have immense environmental challenges before us, with water pollution; from plastics in the ocean, excess fertilizer in the rivers, poison from all kinds of chemicals, including antibiotics, birth control and other medicines flushed down the toilet after going through our bodies, animals fed antibiotics, pest control, weed control and so on. Increasing CO2 is not one of the problems, it will in fact help with erosion control, and allow us to feed more people on less agricultural land with proper management, and require less fertilizer and water to do so. In fact, proper water management is a larger problem, with some rivers no longer reaching the ocean. All water is already spoken for, especially in the 10 to 40 degrees latitude, where most people live.

Allow me to be somewhat technical and give the background to why I know we will never experience the thermal runaway they are so afraid of.

Many years ago I worked at Hewlett Packard on an Atomic Absorption Detector. It was a huge technical success but a commercial failure, as it was too expensive to use for routine applications. However it found a niche and became the detector of choice when dismantling the huge nerve gas stockpiles remaining from the cold war. I was charged with doing the spectrum analysis and produce the final data from the elements. One day two salesmen came and tried to sell us  a patented device that could identify up to 21 different elements with one analysis. They had a detector that divided the visual band into 21 parts, and bingo, with proper, not yet “fully developed” software you could now analyze up to 21 elements with one gas chromatic analysis. What could be better? We could only analyze correctly four or five elements simultaneously. It turns out the elements are absorbing in the same wavelength bands, scientifically speaking they are not orthogonal, so software massaging can only go so far. It turned out that the promised new detector was inferior to what we already had and could only quantify three or 4 elements at the most.

In the atmosphere the two most important greenhouse gases are water vapor and CO2 with methane a distant third. Water vapor is much more of a greenhouse gas everywhere except near the tropopause high above the high clouds and near the poles when the temperature is below 0 F, way below freezing. A chart shows the relationship between CO2 and water vapor:

Image result for h20 and co2 as greenhouse gases

Source: http://notrickszone.com/2017/07/31/new-paper-co2-has-negligible-influence-on-earths-temperature/

Even in Barrow, Alaska water vapor is the dominant greenhouse gas. Only at the South Pole (And North Pole) does CO2 dominate (in the long winter).

All Climate models take this into account, and that is why they all predict that the major temperature increase will occur in the polar regions with melting icecaps and other dire consequences. But they also predict a uniform temperature rise from the increased forcing from CO2 and the additional water vapor resulting from the increased temperature.

This is wrong on two accounts. First, CO2 and H2O gas are nor orthogonal, that means they both absorb in the same frequency bands. There is three bands where CO2 absorb much more than H2O in the far infrared band, but other than that H2O is the main absorber. If H2O is 80 times as common as CO2 as it is around the equator, water vapor is still the dominant absorber.

Secondly gases cannot absorb more than 100% of the energy available in any given energy wavelength! So if H2O did absorb 80% of the energy and CO2 absorbed 50% the sum is not 130%, only 90%. (0.8 + 0.5×0,2 or 0.5 + 0.8×0.5). In this example CO2 only added one quarter of what the models predicted.

How do I know this is true? Lucky for us we can measure what increasing CO2 in the atmosphere has already accomplished. For a model to have credibility it must be tested with measurements, and pass the test. There is important evidence suggesting the basic story is wrong. All greenhouse gases work by affecting the lapse rate in the tropics. They thus create a “hot spot” in the tropical troposphere. The theorized “hot spot” is shown in the early IPCC publications. (Fig A)

Fig. B shows observations. The hotspot is not there. If the hotspot is not there, the models must be wrong. So what is wrong with the models? This was reported in 2008 and the models still assume the additive nature of greenhouse gases, even to the point when more than 100% of the energy in a given band is absorbed.

How about Methane? Do not worry, it absorbs nearly exclusively in the same bands as water vapor and has no measurable influence on the climate.

But it will get warmer at the poles. That will cause melting of the ice-caps? Not so fast. When temperature rises the atmosphere can hold more water vapor, so it will snow more at higher latitudes. While winter temperatures will be higher with more snowfall, this will lower the summer temperatures until the extra snow has melted. And that is what is happening in the Arctics

https://i1.wp.com/ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2017.png

As we can see from this picture, the winters were about 5 degrees warmer, but starting from May through August temperatures were lower. It takes time to melt all the extra snow.

These are my suggestions

  1. Do not worry about increasing CO2 levels. The major temperature stabilizer is clouds, and they will keep the earth from overheating by reflecting back into space a large amount of incoming solar radiation. Always did, and always will, even when the CO2 concentration was more than 10000 ppm millions of years ago. Ice ages will still come, and this is the next major climate change, maybe 10000 years from now.
  2. Clean up rivers, lakes and oceans from pollution. This is a priority.
  3. Limit Wind turbine electric energy to areas not populated by large birds to save the birds. Already over 1.3 million birds a year are killed by wind turbines, including the bald Eagles that likes to build their aeries on top of turbines.
  4. Do not build large solar concentration farms. They too kill birds.
  5. Solar panels are o.k. not in large farms, but distributed on roofs to provide backup power.
  6. Explore geothermal energy in geologically stable areas.
  7. Where ever possible add peak power generation and storage capacity to existing hydroelectric power plants
  8. Add peak power storage dams, even in wildlife preserves. The birds and animals don’t mind.
  9. Develop Thorium based Nuclear Power. Russia, China, Australia and India are ahead of us in this. Streamline permit processes. Prioritize research.
  10. Put fusion power as important for the future but do not rush it, let the research and development be scientifically determined.
  11. When Thorium power is built up and do  replace coal and gas fired plants, then is the time to switch to electric cars, not before.
  12. Standard Nuclear Power plants should be replaced by Thorium powered nuclear plants, since they have only 0,01% of the really bad long term nuclear waste.
  13. Start thinking about recovering CO2 directly from the air and produce aviation fuel. This should be done as Thorium power has replaced coal and gas fired power plants.
  14. This is but a start, but the future is not as bleak as all fearmongers state.

 

 

Beto O’Rourke just announced his candidacy for president. Does he have a message? A Limerick.

The candidate Beto O’Rourke

on Climate change is but a dork.

He does not understand

that the world will not end.

Fake News! – Only New Green Deal pork!

Quote from Beto O’Rourke:

“The scientists are unanimous on this. We have no more than 12 years to take incredibly bold action on this crisis,” O’Rourke said. “Can we make it? I don’t know. It’s up to every one of us. Do you want to make it?”

Political Cartoons by Henry Payne

 

Where is spring? Punxsutawney Phil promised an early spring. A Limerick.

How wrong was old Phil Punxsutawney?

This winter is long and outdrawney.

With the climate change lie

and no shadow came by

he believed, but it was just balawney.

Does this look like spring to you?

Image result for today's current temperatures

And the cold snap has just started. Look at the Great Lakes Ice!

https://coastwatch.glerl.noaa.gov/glsea/cur/glsea_cur.png

Lake Superior may freeze over totally!

And look at the snow pack!

https://www.nohrsc.noaa.gov/snow_model/images/full/National/nsm_ave_temp_24hr/201903/nsm_ave_temp_24hr_2019030405_National.jpg

What is a national emergency? I am puzzled.

After a long and successful career as an engineer, starting in Sweden and emigrating to the U.S. I got a job offer I couldn’t refuse, an opportunity to teach what is called the capstone course for engineers to be at the Pennsylvania State University in Happy Valley PA, trying to convert them from students excelling in cramming to world class engineers.. Thinking I’ll do it for a couple of years and then retire for good I accepted. Not knowing when to quit I am still doing it, in part because of the number of foreign students and the cross cultural interactions I observe when there are students from India, China, the Middle East and various other countries in the teams. This semester I have the privilege of having a tri-lingual student speaking fluent French, English and Kirundi.

Image result for burundi

She does a double major, and as all of the female engineering students I have experienced thus far is very motivated. This is neither here or there, but where do they speak Kirundi? Looking up Burundi in Wikipedia, I find the United States has declared a national emergency with respect to Burundi. It was the last national emergency declared by President Obama, and President Trump renewed it last fall. Burundi is a beautiful country in the middle of Africa with about 11 million people and an annual GDP of less than 4 billion dollars. You do the math. The national emergency deals with four corrupt officials in Burundi.

Just one question for politicians. Why do some not consider the situation at our Southern Border, considering drug smuggling and human trafficking, a national emergency when four Burundi corrupt officials is?

Eating hotdogs and beans is becoming dangerous. What to do?

It is not easy eating right these days. A large French study indicated that eating processed food increases mortality rates by 14%.

A favorite, low cost food in the U.S is hot dogs and beans.

Here is the Limerick:

It’s true that you are what you eat

and hot dogs are just processed meat.

But the Climate Change crowd

say it clear, say it loud.

With beans you fart methane – more heat.

 

The eagle has landed. Dead. Will the Green New Deal kill them all?

The Eagle has landed in aerie

on top of a windmill – that’s scary.

Doesn’t know she will die,

whacked right out of the sky

from rotating blades unawary.

The idea of wind farming is to create sustainable energy.

Will the population of eagles and other large birds be sustainable?

Image result for eagles and wind turbines

They like to build their aeries on top of wind turbines, the highest structure in their territory.

It is estimated that the total bird kill by the year 2030 is going to be 1 million three hundred thousand birds. And that is if the Green New Deal is not implemented.

Is the large bird population sustainable even now?

Image result for eagles and wind turbines

In parts of Ohio they have forbidden the turbines to run at night to protect a rare bat.

And it takes energy to produce energy. The cost of de-icing the average airplane is $1500. And that is without the helicopter.

And I am not sure about the former.

I end with Isaiah 40:31

“…but those who hope in the Lord
    will renew their strength.
They will soar on wings like eagles;
    they will run and not grow weary,
    they will walk and not be faint.”