A Climate Realist’s (not so) short Answers to Hard Questions About Climate Change. Question 10 (of 16) Why do people question climate change?

NOV. 28, 2015 gave his answers to 16 questions in the N.Y. Times regarding Climate Change. This Climate realist added his answer.

 Answers to Question 1: How much is the planet heating up?

Answers to Question 2. How much trouble are we in?

Answers to Question 3. Is there anything I can do?

Answers to Question 4. What’s the optimistic scenario?

Answers to Question 5. Will reducing meat in my diet help the climate?

Answers to Question 6. What’s the worst-case scenario?

Answers to Question 7. Will a tech breakthrough help us?

Answers to Question 8. How much will the seas rise?

Answers to Question 9. Are the predictions reliable?

Justin Gillis answer to Question 10. Why do people question climate change?

“Hint: ideology.

Most of the attacks on climate science are coming from libertarians and other political conservatives who do not like the policies that have been proposed to fight global warming. Instead of negotiating over those policies and trying to make them more subject to free-market principles, they have taken the approach of blocking them by trying to undermine the science.

This ideological position has been propped up by money from fossil-fuel interests, which have paid to create organizations, fund conferences and the like. The scientific arguments made by these groups usually involve cherry-picking data, such as focusing on short-term blips in the temperature record or in sea ice, while ignoring the long-term trends.

The most extreme version of climate denialism is to claim that scientists are engaged in a worldwide hoax to fool the public so that the government can gain greater control over people’s lives. As the arguments have become more strained, many oil and coal companies have begun to distance themselves publicly from climate denialism, but some are still helping to finance the campaigns of politicians who espouse such views.”

My answer to Question 10. Why do people question climate change?

Nobody except total ignoramuses deny climate change. We can learn from history that the Swedish army crossed the Great belt on ice during the little ice age, Greenland had a cheese farm “Gaarden under sanden” during the Medieval warming period,  tree stumps emerging from the melting Mendenhall Glacier, shows there was a forest there 1000 to 3000 years ago, the wine making in England during the Roman warm period, the cooldown during the Dark ages causing massive deaths, the emerging of a man preserved in ice for 5000 years, even before the Minoan warming period. We can see marks from multiple ice ages, such as the finger lakes, “giant kettles” in Sweden from the river that emptied the Baltic Ice lake, and so on. All this happened during stable CO2 levels.

The recent sharp rise of CO2 levels is unprecedented and it should be studied if that is good or bad for the climate since it is a greenhouse gas. We had a little ice age and are still coming out of it, but worldwide temperatures are still lower than during the Medieval warming period. So the question is: how much of the recent warming trend can be attributed to the rise of CO2 and will we ever get back to the Minoan optimum at any level of CO2? On the other hand, what can we do to stave off, or at least delay the onset of the next ice age? These are questions that should be made, but unless you take the “politically correct” position it is very hard to get funding. On the other hand, the “ideological position”  taken by the IPCC,  has convinced numerous countries, which have spent in the hundreds of billions of dollars, to prop up the “research” on the evils of increasing CO2.

The main cherrypicker of data and climate denialism can be can be represented by Michael Mann and his famous “hockey stick” denying both the little ice age and the Medieval Warming period. Another example is how homogenization of temperature data to make the data fit when the environment around the temperature stations change. The temperature adjustments form a near perfect straight line, the less CO2, the more old temperatures are adjusted downward to conceal previous warm periods. This is not science. It may be political science where perception is reality, but science demands the models are checked versus reality.  To adjust temperatures as a function of CO2 levels to prove rising temperatures as a function of CO2 levels is scientific fraud.

 

Groundhog day 2017. A Punxutawney Phil Limerick.

The Phil Punxutawney prediction:

Six MORE weeks of winter affliction.

In the Climate change game

it is worth ’bout the same

as IPCC claims of fiction.

 

Here are the Climate models used by IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) Models versus reality:

CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1

Nine days in all time record territory for Ice in Antarctica so far this year! A Limerick.

(update: Sep 30 came in with the 3:rd highest level ever at 19.50483 million square km of ice in Antarctica. October first NASA shut down so we do not know if October first was in record territory)

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The Ice is still growing down under.

The IPCC torn asunder.

For the Ice does not lie.

Kiss the warming good-bye.

It’s worse than a crime, it’s a blunder.

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In 2012 NOAA’s South Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent set a new record with 11 of the 15 highest levels ever recorded.

These are the data so far for 2013 (the Ice Extent is still rising, and it is spring in Antarctica)

The top 10 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)!

9 of the top 10 extents are now in 2013!

This must be an inconvenient truth since NOAA isn’t mentioning it.

Day        year       ice extent (million sq. km)

264         2013       19.51394

257         2013       19.51234

270         2013       19.50797

258         2013       19.48591

263         2013       19.48309

269         2013       19.47161

265         2013       19.46830

260         2013       19.45470

266         2012       19.45418

262         2013       19.45109

The chart:

S_stddev_timeseriesSep30

S_bm_extent_hiresSep30

Lies, damned lies, Statistics and Climate Forecasting. A song.

It is hard to make predictions – especially about the future (Yogi Berra, Niels Bohr, et al.)

The Met Office has caused a storm of controversy after it was revealed their £30million supercomputer designed to predict climate change is one of Britain’s worst polluters. The massive machine – the UK’s most powerful computer with a whopping 15 million megabytes of memory – was installed in the Met Office’s headquarters in Exeter, Devon. With a total peak performance approaching 1 PetaFlop — equivalent to over 100,000 PCs and over 30 times more powerful than what was in place before. It is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second to feed data to 400 scientists and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.

So what glorious new and accurate information are they producing now?

Met Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Winter 2010/11 This covers the months of November, December and January 2010/11, this will be updated monthly through the winter and so probabilities will change. Temperature 3 in 10 chance of a mild start 3 in 10 chance of an average start 4 in 10 chance of a cold start Precipitation 3 in 10 chance of a wet start 3 in 10 chance of an average start 4 in 10 chance of a dry start Summary: There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season. Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season.

I am really impressed by their newfound forecasting ability. So impressed I have written a new lyrics to Merle Travis song: Sixteen tons (Popularized by Tennessee Ernie Ford)

Some people say people are made outta mud

Global warmists they are, they are chewing their cud,

Chewing their cud and follow Al Gore

A mind that’s a-weak can you ask for much more?

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?

Another prognosis and deeper in debt

Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be

They sold their souls to the IPCC.

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They came in one mornin’ when the sun didn’t shine

They picked up their papers and continued the grind

They had  sixteen conditions, mostly falsified bull

And the straw boss said “Well, a-bless my soul”.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?

Another prognosis and deeper in debt

Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be

They sold their souls to the IPCC.

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They came in one mornin’, it was drizzlin’ rain

the prognosis had failed them again and again

The boss harshly told them, You will do many more

Do as I tell you, and agree with Al Gore.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?

Another prognosis and deeper in debt

Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be

They sold their souls to the IPCC.

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The cold snap we’re having now, it just cannot last

and hidin’ the warming that occurred in the past

Their ol’  man Mann and his hockey stick.

With conditions like this nothing ever will click.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?

Another prognosis and deeper in debt

 Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be

They sold their souls to the IPCC.