Groundhog day 2017. A Punxutawney Phil Limerick.

The Phil Punxutawney prediction:

Six MORE weeks of winter affliction.

In the Climate change game

it is worth ’bout the same

as IPCC claims of fiction.

 

Here are the Climate models used by IPCC (the Intergovernmental Panel of Climate Change) Models versus reality:

CMIP5-73-models-vs-obs-20N-20S-MT-5-yr-means1

Nine days in all time record territory for Ice in Antarctica so far this year! A Limerick.

(update: Sep 30 came in with the 3:rd highest level ever at 19.50483 million square km of ice in Antarctica. October first NASA shut down so we do not know if October first was in record territory)

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The Ice is still growing down under.

The IPCC torn asunder.

For the Ice does not lie.

Kiss the warming good-bye.

It’s worse than a crime, it’s a blunder.

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In 2012 NOAA’s South Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent set a new record with 11 of the 15 highest levels ever recorded.

These are the data so far for 2013 (the Ice Extent is still rising, and it is spring in Antarctica)

The top 10 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)!

9 of the top 10 extents are now in 2013!

This must be an inconvenient truth since NOAA isn’t mentioning it.

Day        year       ice extent (million sq. km)

264         2013       19.51394

257         2013       19.51234

270         2013       19.50797

258         2013       19.48591

263         2013       19.48309

269         2013       19.47161

265         2013       19.46830

260         2013       19.45470

266         2012       19.45418

262         2013       19.45109

The chart:

S_stddev_timeseriesSep30

S_bm_extent_hiresSep30

Lies, damned lies, Statistics and Climate Forecasting. A song.

It is hard to make predictions – especially about the future (Yogi Berra, Niels Bohr, et al.)

The Met Office has caused a storm of controversy after it was revealed their £30million supercomputer designed to predict climate change is one of Britain’s worst polluters. The massive machine – the UK’s most powerful computer with a whopping 15 million megabytes of memory – was installed in the Met Office’s headquarters in Exeter, Devon. With a total peak performance approaching 1 PetaFlop — equivalent to over 100,000 PCs and over 30 times more powerful than what was in place before. It is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second to feed data to 400 scientists and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.

So what glorious new and accurate information are they producing now?

Met Office Initial Assessment of Risk for Winter 2010/11 This covers the months of November, December and January 2010/11, this will be updated monthly through the winter and so probabilities will change. Temperature 3 in 10 chance of a mild start 3 in 10 chance of an average start 4 in 10 chance of a cold start Precipitation 3 in 10 chance of a wet start 3 in 10 chance of an average start 4 in 10 chance of a dry start Summary: There is an increased risk for a cold and wintry start to the winter season. Looking further ahead beyond this assessment there are some indications of an increased risk of a mild end to the winter season.

I am really impressed by their newfound forecasting ability. So impressed I have written a new lyrics to Merle Travis song: Sixteen tons (Popularized by Tennessee Ernie Ford)

Some people say people are made outta mud

Global warmists they are, they are chewing their cud,

Chewing their cud and follow Al Gore

A mind that’s a-weak can you ask for much more?

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?

Another prognosis and deeper in debt

Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be

They sold their souls to the IPCC.

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They came in one mornin’ when the sun didn’t shine

They picked up their papers and continued the grind

They had  sixteen conditions, mostly falsified bull

And the straw boss said “Well, a-bless my soul”.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?

Another prognosis and deeper in debt

Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be

They sold their souls to the IPCC.

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They came in one mornin’, it was drizzlin’ rain

the prognosis had failed them again and again

The boss harshly told them, You will do many more

Do as I tell you, and agree with Al Gore.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?

Another prognosis and deeper in debt

Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be

They sold their souls to the IPCC.

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The cold snap we’re having now, it just cannot last

and hidin’ the warming that occurred in the past

Their ol’  man Mann and his hockey stick.

With conditions like this nothing ever will click.

More than one megawatt, and what do you get?

Another prognosis and deeper in debt

 Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be

They sold their souls to the IPCC.