A stunning result for HCQ +Az treatment for COVID-19 patients in Qatar! A Limerick.

The HCQ test made in Qatar

is stunning, that is all I can utter

For the death rate is low

A great fearmonger blow

Ignore it! The media mutter.

Qatar is an interesting country. It hosts America’s biggest Air base in the Middle East. With a population of only 2,8 million people it has 45,465 people that tested positive for the coronavirus, or 1.58% of the population, the highest in the world reported so far, bur only 26 deaths so far, only 0.009%, and there are nearly 400 recoveries for every death, the highest in the world.

How can that be? Does Qatar have a very unusual population profile? Yes, indeed

but it is not because of many children, no, over half of the population is working age males, nearly all guest workers. This explains a lot, but even that is not the main cause.

No, they have done a nearly universal medical protocol for all that test positive for the COVID-19 virus. All will get Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin , but a random sample will be selected for a small, double blind study. It started April 14 and ended May 14. The results will be published May 30 of so, but we don’t have to wait for the results of that test to verify the effectiveness of this medical treatment if begun as soon as symptoms materialize. To have the highest infection rate and the lowest death rate in the world is sufficient reason for me to advocate HCQ + AC for all eligible testing positive. Maybe if you include Zinc in the protocol the results would be even better, but we cannot wait for all the results to come in. Let us save lives now!

Appendix: Some were not be eligible for this study. The exclusion criteria were:

Ages Eligible for Study: 18 Years and older   (Adult, Older Adult)
Sexes Eligible for Study: All
Accepts Healthy Volunteers: No
Criteria

Inclusion Criteria:

  • Patient is in HMC facility for low-acuity, Covid-positive patients being quarantined.
  • Positive Covid test on qualitative assay used during routine care (i.e. not as part of Q-PROTECT (that is: victims given the placebo to make it a true random test)
  • Age at least 18

Exclusion Criteria:

  • Treating physician judges patient not appropriate for study participation for any reason
  • Age <18
  • Breastfeeding or pregnancy (patient-reported pregnancy status is sufficient)
  • Hypersensitivity to chloroquine or HC or AZ
  • History of or known QT prolongation
    • EKG required before study entry and on each visit during the subject’s first seven days on pro-tocol, during the time period HC is being taken
    • Baseline QTc >480 if QRS width normal; QTc >510 if QRS >120
  • Known G6PD deficiency, porphyria, or retinopathy (eye exam prior to study entry)
  • Known hepatic or renal disease (or abnormality on liver or renal function testing at study day 1)
  • Low magnesium or low potassium (by testing on day 1)
  • Current (pre-study) therapy with antimalarial or dapsone
  • Current (pre-study) therapy with antiviral agents (e.g. oseltamivir)
  • Tisdale36 score exceeding 6 as tallied below (based on ACC recommendations)*
    • 1 point each: age>67, female sex, or being on loop diuretic
    • 2 points each: serum potassium <3.6, QTc>449, acute myocardial infarction
    • 3 points each: sepsis, heart failure, QT-prolonging drugs

Hydroxychloroquine + Zinc is the answer? Check the death rates of nine countries that use it.

This is a very interesting chart:

But wait. Not so fast. These countries have a younger population, and the death rate is much lower for younger people. This chart tells it all.

The death rate doubles for every 8 years as you age or about 9% per year. The world median age is 30.4 years. So let the world death rate be the norm

World death rate as of May 21 is 6.42% of diagnosed cases.

Turkey: Death rate 2.77%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 2.64%

South Korea: Death rate 2.37%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 2.26%

Malaysia: Death rate 1.61%, median age 28.5, adjusted death rate 1.91%

Senegal: Death rate 1.13%, median age 18.8, adjusted death rate 3.00%

Costa Rica: Death rate 1.11%, median age 31.3, adjusted death rate 1.02%

United Arab emirates: Death rate 0.88%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 0.84%

Bahrain: Death rate 1.43%, median age 32.3, adjusted death rate 1.20%

Morocco: Death rate 2.70%, median age 29.3, adjusted death rate 2.92%

Russia: Death rate 1.00%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 0.95%

Taking the average, not adjusted for the size of the populations we get the average adjusted death rate for countries, where people are taking HCQ + Zinc when diagnosed positive, is 1.89%.

This means that the risk of death is reduced by a factor of 3.4 if HZQ + Zinc is taken as early as possible after a positive diagnosis for coronavirus!

These 9 countries are living proof of it. Why are we not implementing it today?

 

 

 

President Trump is taking hydroxychloroquine! The international results are overwhelming, he is right!

In 2005 Dr. Anthony Fauci,the director of the (NIAID) National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a position he still holds received the encouraging news that Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread. The SARS epidemic petered out, ao the clinical trial was never executed.

Now the news about the efficacy of HydroxyChloroquine is coming in hot and heavy. The results are very encouraging. This is from a recent study in Marseilles, France:

We retrospectively report on 1061 SARS-CoV-2 positive tested patients treated for at least three days with the following regimen: HCQ (200 mg three times daily for ten days) + AZ (500 mg on day 1 followed by 250 mg daily for the next four days). Outcomes were death, clinical worsening (transfer to ICU, and >10 day hospitalization) and viral shedding persistence (>10 days).

Results

A total of 1061 patients were included in this analysis (46.4% male, mean age 43.6 years – range 14–95 years). Good clinical outcome and virological cure were obtained in 973 patients within 10 days (91.7%). Prolonged viral carriage was observed in 47 patients (4.4%) and was associated to a higher viral load at diagnosis (p < .001) but viral culture was negative at day 10. All but one, were PCR-cleared at day 15. A poor clinical outcome (PClinO) was observed for 46 patients (4.3%) and 8 died (0.75%) (74–95 years old). All deaths resulted from respiratory failure and not from cardiac toxicity. Five patients are still hospitalized (98.7% of patients cured so far). PClinO was associated with older age (OR 1.11), severity of illness at admission (OR 10.05) and low HCQ serum concentration. PClinO was independently associated with the use of selective beta-blocking agents and angiotensin II receptor blockers (p < .05). A total of 2.3% of patients reported mild adverse events (gastrointestinal or skin symptoms, headache, insomnia and transient blurred vision).

Conclusion

Administration of the HCQ+AZ combination before COVID-19 complications occur is safe and associated with a very low fatality rate in patients.

Since then, prescriptions for the drug cocktail in Marseilles is up 7000%, and is also increasing in the rest of France, especially the Paris region.

But France is by no means the first country to go all out prescribing the drug cocktail. At least twelve countries are doing it, and Turkey and Morocco prescribe it to all with COVID-19 symptoms ( after first checking their heart). Russia joined six weeks later. Here are the results:

If we look at the results from onset to today, some interesting facts stand out

Turkey: Death rate 50 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 37

Morocco: Death rate 5 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 19.6

Russia: Death rate 19 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 19.6 and rising, but they started six weeks later and have not yet reached their infection maximum.

France: Death rate 433 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 2.2, but their new case maximum was 11 weeks ago and the maximum death rate was 9 weeks ago, way before any prescriptions increased.

U.S. does not do an even job of reporting recovered cases, so the results will only be valid for some states. Michigan seems to be one state that records recoveries.

Michigan: Death rate 492 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 5.7

The best state is South Dakota, but there Governor Kristi Noem conducted a semi clinical (not double blind) trial, and the results speak for themselves.

South Dakota: Death rate 50 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 63.27 !!

My suggestion is this: Give the HCQ+ AZT + Zinc +Vitamin D for 5 days as soon as symptoms occur. Give HZQ + Zinc + Vitamin D for 5 days to all the infected person’s contacts, then their quarantine is over, otherwise it is 14 days. Check for heart rhythm problems, but otherwise go ahead.

The results from Turkey + Russia + Morocco  involved more than 170,000 recovered cases, far more than any clinical study, and showed the effect both before and after HCQ became the drug of choice, so the effect is real enough!

A final? verse on the Obama impeachment song; the new hashtag #obamagate, remember it before it is taken down.

Yesterday I learned a new word, obamagate, to compare the coup attempt against President Donald Trump with Richard Nixon’s “Third rate burglary” , called Waterecause gate.

It quickly caught on, and at 9 am today had 3. 43 million tweets. Since then it is diminishing fast:

The time for impeachment is over, but here is verse 100 to the Obama impeachment song: (Obama singing)

Twitter trends: ‘Obamagate’

Please take it down, it’ll seal my fate.

All because of my Trump hate;

the coup failed, and now it is checkmate.

the other 99 verses here

Sweden was right after all. No lock-down but hygiene, social separation and limited gatherings will work just as well.

As Europe and North America continue suffering their steady economic and social decline as a direct result of imposing “lockdown” on their populations, other countries have taken a different approach to dealing with the coronavirus threat. You wouldn’t know it by listening to western politicians or mainstream media stenographers, there are also non-lockdown countries. They are led by Sweden, Iceland, Belarus, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Surprisingly to some, their results have been as good or better than the lockdown countries, but without having to endure the socio-economic chaos we are now witnessing across the world. For this reason alone, Sweden and others like them, have already won the policy debate, as well as the scientific one too.

Unlike many others, Sweden has not enforced any strict mass quarantine measures to contain COVID-19, nor has it closed any of its borders. Rather, Swedish health authorities have issued a series of guidelines for social distancing and other common sense measures covering areas like hygiene, travel, public gatherings, and protecting the elderly and immune compromised. They have kept all preschools, primary and secondary schools open, while closing college and universities who are now doing their work and lectures online. Likewise, many bars and restaurants have remained open, and shoppers do not have to perform the bizarre ritual of queuing around the block standing 2 meters apart in order to buy groceries.

According to the country’s top scientists, they are now well underway to achieving natural herd immunity. It seems this particular Nordic model has already won the debate.

Because Sweden decided to follow real epidemiological science and pursue a common sense strategy of herd immunity, it doesn’t need to “flatten of the curve” because its strategic approach has the added benefit of achieving a much more gradual and wider spread.

This chart proves the point:

How well are the other non-lockdown countries doing?

Iceland  has a total case count of 1799 and a death count of 10, all between March 21 and April 20.

Belarus has a total case count of 16705 and a death count of 99, and the death chart looks like this:

Here the daily death count has not risen above 5 per day. in a country of 9.5 million

 

Japan has a total case count of 14571 and a death count of 474, and the death chart looks like this:

Japan shows a unique pattern: It looked that they had beaten the coronavirus early, but then in April it started up again, but always at manageable levels.

 

South Korea has a total case count of 10793 and a death count of 250, and the death chart looks like this:

The death count rises, then stays constant for about 2 months and then declines, but slower than the new case count.

Taiwan has a total case count of 432 and a death count of 6, all between March 20 and April 10.  And this in a country of 24 million!

Compare this with Belgium, the center of European Union, and roughly the size of Sweden, it has a total case count of 49906 and a death count of 7844, and the death chart looks like this

This chart, representative of a lock-down country shows the same rise, flattop and decline as the charts of the non lock-down countries, but has a much higher death rate.

Quotes from https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-sweden-has-already-won-debate-covid-19-lockdown-policy

this blog has been updated with values up to July 9: https://lenbilen.com/2020/07/10/sweden-was-right-no-lock-down-but-hygiene-social-separation-and-limited-gatherings-will-work-just-as-well/

 

 

Vitamin D – one weapon to combat the coronavirus.

 

The organization Grassroots health put out the results of 212 people that had the COVID-19 virus, roughly 50 each having a critical or severe or normal or mild outcome. The results were stunning. Nearly all with a high level of vitamin D level in the blood had a mild outcome, as opposed to those with a vitamin D deficiency.

Up to now vitamin D deficiency has mostly been a concern for the people with the following risk factors, but not as a virus fighter.

  • Osteoporosis or other bone disorder
  • Previous gastric bypass surgery
  • Age; vitamin D deficiency is more common in older adults.
  • Obesity
  • Lack of exposure to sunlight
  • Having a darker complexion
  • Difficulty absorbing fat in your diet

It should be fairly simple and fast to expand this analysis to a larger sample of people that also include people with antibodies to COVID-19 but never showed any symptoms.

If this holds true, we did the exact wrong thing by keeping people indoors in hope to slow the spread. Instead we should have encouraged people to be outdoors as much as possible, still practicing hygiene and social distance, give vitamin D to all over 65 (4000 IU), to all obese and people of dark complexion.

This is by no means the only suggestion, but it is one more weapon in the arsenal to combat this virus.

It is more dangerous to live in a state with a Democrat Governor than it is with a Republican Governor, at least in regard to COVID-19

Taking a snapshot of the COVID-19 cases as of Apr 23 I was curious to see if there were any differences in infection and death rates between states that has a Democrat Governor and those states that has a Republican Governor. And indeed there is, there are nearly three times as many cases (2.89) in states with a Democrat Governor as there are in states with a Republican governor, and the death rate is 62% higher, a more telling statistic.

There could be many reasons for this discrepancy, but here is some food for thought: The indoor environment is where most viruses spread, elevators, staircases, central ventilation, mass transportation just to name a few. This is typical of the urban environment. Living in rural areas on the other hand, much more time is spent outdoors, in sunshine, which kills the virus nearly immediately and fresh air is very good for basic health. Therefore to issue a nationwide ban to stay inside was the wrong thing to do. Cleanliness, social distancing and get outside as much as possible would have been much better. Go out, plant your garden, take your boat out for a weekend spin or visit your cottage in the woods. If you don’t have a cottage just take a walk in the woods and listen to the sounds of spring, but don’t put canned music in your ears. If you don’t have any woods nearby, use any area not crowded.  That is one way to eliminate cabin fever.

Here are the statistics, state by state.

Democratic governor      Cases                  Deaths

New York                             268,581                 20861

New Jersey                         100,025                 5428

California                             39620                    1531

Pennsylvania                     37053                    1685

Illinois                                   36934                    1688

Michigan                              35291                    2997

Louisiana                             25739                    1599

Connecticut                        23100                    1639

Washington                        12753                    711

Virginia                                 11594                    410

Colorado                              11262                    552

North Carolina                   7854                       281

Rhode Island                      6256                       189

Wisconsin                            5052                       257

Nevada                                4208                       189

Kentucky                             3481                       191

District of Columbia        3361                       139

Delaware                             3308                       92

Minnesota                          2942                       200

Kansas                                  2734                       113

New Mexico                       2379                       78

Oregon                                 2127                       83

Maine                                   937                         44

Hawaii                                   596                         12

Montana                             442                         14

Total:                            647,099                   40,983  Death rate 6.33%

 

 

Republican governor     Cases                    Deaths

Massachusetts                  46023                    2360

Florida                                  29648                    987

Texas                                    22393                    576

Georgia                                21883                    881

Maryland                             15737                    748

Ohio                                      14694                    656

Indiana                                 13039                    706

Tennessee                          8266                       170

Missouri                               6384                       243

Alabama                              5832                       201

Arizona                                 5769                       249

Mississippi                          5153                       201

South Carolina                   4917                       150

Iowa                                      3924                       96

Utah                                      3612                       35

Oklahoma                           3017                       179

Arkansas                              2599                       45

Nebraska                             2124                       47

South Dakota                     1956                       9

Idaho                                    1836                       54

New Hampshire                1670                       51

West Virginia                      981                         31

Vermont                              825                         43

North Dakota                     709                         15

Wyoming                             453                         7

Alaska                                   337                         9

Total:                           223,781                       8,749      Death rate 3.91%

Earth day 2020, the 150 year birthday of Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, a.k.a. Lenin. A Limerick.

We celebrate Lenin’s old birth day

in what is now renamed the Earth Day.

It’s a globalist plot;

it’s the climate change: Not!

It’s capitalism besmirch day.

When I came to the U.S. as a green card immigrant  from a beautiful, clean Sweden in the spring of 1968 I was horrified at what I found. In Sweden they were worried about the fact that some lakes were fertilized four times more than the agricultural fields, acid rain killed the trouts in the already acid lakes and  seeds laced with Mercury as a preservative killed off most of the eagles and owls. None of this seemed to bother the Americans. Coming in to Rochester in N.Y the stench from the dead fish washing up on the shore of lake Ontario was strong, I read of a river catching on fire in Ohio and the smell of coal burning power plants without scrubbers was bad, almost as bad as in the coal and steel region of Germany. It was also the height of the Vietnam wars, and people were protesting. Many of the protestors were communists at hart, and they also turned to pollution. The aerosol pollution led to a decrease in global temperatures, so the mantra was: The ice age is coming! The worst prediction I read was that the global temperatures would be then degrees Fahrenheit lower by the year 2000! Most predictions were not that wild, but they all pointed down, ice age, here we come! The urge to clean up the pollution grew stronger and the Earth Day movement was formed, but they had to find just the right day to have the first. Since this was to become a global movement they decided on the birthday of Lenin, his 100th, very fitting for a globalist movement.  That was 1970 in Philadelphia, featured Ira Einhorn (The Unicorn Killer) as master of Ceremonies.

Now fifty years later the mantra has changed to climate change, specifically carbon pollution and carbon footprint. As the scientists were wrong then, the ice age is coming soon, so they are wrong now. The rise in CO2 causes climate change all right, and it would be really bad unless something else also changes as the CO2 concentration changes. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas, much stronger than CO2, and they both add to the greenhouse effect, but only at temperatures below freezing. In the tropics there is 50 times as much water vapor as there is CO2, so the tropics is not affected at all by rising CO2 levels. In the Arctic the situation is quite different. Water vapor is also a condensing gas, and forms clouds in the atmosphere. Clouds cool by day and warm by night, but the effect of cooling by day is much larger than the cooling by night, so clouds act as the major temperature regulator on earth. That is why the temperature was about the same as now when the CO2 level was over 10000 ppm, 25 times as large as now hundreds of millions of years ago. There is zero risk of overheating, there is no “tipping point” on the warm side, the clouds tale care of that. On the other hand we know that because we have too little CO2 in the air we will have a new ice age. When will it come? Not in the next thousand years, in fact, by increasing the CO2 levels we will delay the onset of the next ice age. What will happen at the Poles? There will be less cold in the winters, it will snow more but the summers will be about the same, melting more snow.

As to the corona virus the scientists predictions have so far been way off the mark, which just goes to show that making models before all facts are known produces faulty predictions every time. As Yogi Berra once said: “’It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’” “… never make predictions – especially about the future”.

 

There is a better green new deal. And this one will work and save the environment

We have immense environmental problems. CO2 is not one of them. There is a great need for a green new deal, but that involves cleaning up the earth, not destroying it even further. Cleaning up the earth requires a lot of electric energy. There is only one solution to this dilemma, renewables alone will not even begin to solve it, only Liquid Fluoride Thorium nuclear reactors, and in the future fusion power will have a chance to carry us through the next ice age, which will come when we have used up all available fossil fuels. We must save the bulk of it for our great grand-kids.

My suggestions for the green new deal are quite different from what is commonly proposed. Here are some suggestions:

Do harden the electric grid so it can sustain an electro-magnetic-pulse, either from a nuclear EMP-bomb or from a solar storm like the Carrington event of 1859. Make the grid safe from malicious hacking.

Do not build more wind-turbines except in areas where there are no raptors. The allowable kill of bald eagles per year is 4200, and if we build many more we risk to eliminate the bald and golden eagles as well as other rare birds. More here.

Do fill up fully the strategic petroleum reserve, taking advantage of the low, below cost crude oil prices due to lack of demand. This will be important and avoid price spikes and shortages should the strait of Hormuz be cut off. By eliminating that threat it will ensure that it will not be cut off. Peace is the final goal. (Note: This is already happening, at $10 a barrel)

Make all dams producing profitable hydroelectric power fully equipped to pump up water from a pool downstream to refill the dam during low power demand and provide extra power during peak demand. This is important, since that peak demand otherwise would be satisfied by burning coal and natural gas, and even using diesel-powered generators.

Do plant trees where-ever practical, especially in urban environments. They help immensely to alleviate the urban heat island effect, and are good for mental health, and provide habitat for birds and squirrels. They have to live too. In rural areas abandoned farms, like in upstate New York should be planted with managed forests.

Encourage protection and reforesting of the tropical rain forests. Plant a few billion trees worldwide. The Arbor Day Foundation operates worldwide and is reasonably efficient.

Do serious research on how to clean waste water including removing antibiotics and hormones such as birth control medicine. This is necessary in arid areas, water must be reused since the aquifers are already exhausted in much of the arid west. It will require a lot of energy  to implement and run water recycling plants, but it is necessary to secure clean water, not only for ourselves, but also for aquatic life downstream.

Do not build any more large solar power installations until our dependence on Chinese rare earth metals is eliminated.

Do eliminate  the regulation that Thorium is a source material and subject to nuclear regulations for mining. With this regulation eliminated we can again be independent from China on rare earth metals mining and refining.

Do not build any more Uranium based nuclear power stations. Even before we sold 20% of our uranium mines to Russia we were the world’s biggest importer of Uranium, and vulnerable to supply disruptions.

We must start immediately a large research and development effort into Liquid Fuel Thorium Reactors. China, India and Russia are way ahead of us, and China is grabbing IP rights as fast as they can. There is a million years supply of Thorium available, far more than anything else we are mining, and enough Thorium is already mined! Thorium reactors produce one ten-thousandth of the nasty TRans-Uranium waste products compared to a Uranium reactor, and the TRU it produces is Plutonium-238, used in space travel. Thorium waste products cannot be used for nuclear bombs, only dirty bombs, and the waste products radiation lasts only about 300 years, rather than 100000+ years. It is a good isotope producer for medical treatment and research.

Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors are inherently earthquake safe, operate under atmospheric conditions, have a large negative temperature coefficient, making it very stable and easy to control, and  they can never have a meltdown, the salt is already molten!

LFTR reactors can be placed nearly anywhere, does not need an evacuation zone because of its inherent safety, uses very little cooling water, produces very little waste, scales beautifully from very large power plants to small portable plants for small communities, can be run at variable power output with a small reaction time, all of this lessens the need for an expanded power grid.

The U.S was once the leader in Thorium reactor technology, but bombs were more important, and so we lost out on safety. Nuclear accidents like Three Mile Island, Chernobyl and Fukushima could not have happened with Thorium reactors.

LFTR can produce electricity at about 4c/kWh, a very competitive cost.

And lastly, it can, in a slightly different configuration be used to eliminate spent nuclear fuels and nuclear bombs. They will have to be placed away from urban areas, not because of safety, but because nobody want to transport spent nuclear fuel or nuclear bombs through city streets.

This is a tall order, but it can eliminate all fossil fuel used to produce electricity.

About four years before all fossil fuel is eliminated as electricity producer, then and first then is the time to move over to electric cars and trucks. Before then, you are really using fossil fuel anyway, putting additional pressure on the national power grid with all its inefficiencies.

This is but a short list of the opportunities for a real green new deal, but these are the most important parts.

A perfectly preserved tunic from Roman times uncovered from melting glacier proves the climate was warmer then. A Limerick.

The tunic at Lomseggen pass

a garment of very high class

got preserved in the ice

glaciers grew, then demise

the climate change sure shows pizzazz

This tunic was made in the third or fourth century A.D. It is made of wool, and like all good tunics of that time it was never washed. The original sheep tallow in the wool made it a very good water repellent, so it was warm enough to wear when going over the short pass in snow in the winter. The oldest artifacts found, stone arrow points are about 6000 years old

and the newest are from viking times around 1200 A.D.

The Landbreen Glacier in central Norway grew, and from about 1400 to 2000 A.D. the pass was under the ice pack of the glacier. This proves that the climate was warmer  in roman and viking times than it was up till the 20th century. To prove this point we can see the temperature records from the Greenland icecap, at about the same latitude. (The temperature is in degree Celsius)

As we can see, there is a negative correlation between CO2 and temperature. This is counter-intuitive, but far more important than the amount of CO2 to affect the climate is the amount of clouds, the amount of snow they contain and when and where they occur. It turns out that clouds are the main temperature regulator for the climate, and we are eventually and slowly entering another ice-age. The recent rise in CO2 from 280 ppm to 405 ppm will delay the onset of the next ice age, surely arriving in the next 10000 years. Right now we are almost back to the conditions of the Medieval warm period, but still much below the ideal conditions during the Roman warm period. The climate is getting better.