HCQ and Chloroquine can now definitely be legally prescribed for Covid use by US physicians. This will save many lives from now on.

This was the headline from the Daily Mail (U.K.)

And these are the real news about the story

POTUS news conference June 15, FOX NEWS ~4:05 pm

Reporter just asked POTUS about the recent FDA notice on hydroxychloroquine

That it’s [supposedly] “no longer considered as a reasonable treatment for Covid”

POTUS defers to Secretary Alex Azar:

Azar:

To clarify your statement, which is not quite accurate:

The FDA withdrew an emergency use authorization of Hydroxychloroquine from Bayer manufactured in Pakistan – where emergency authorization was restricted to hospital use only.

So they took the emergency use only authorization off.

“At this point HCQ and chloroquine are just like any other approved drug in the United States

they may be used in hospitals, they may be used in out-patients, they may be used at home” “all subject to a doctor’s prescription.”

Furthermore, he said that “it’s good that the emergency use authorization was removed, because it had been widely misinterpreted as saying that these drugs could ONLY be use in-hospital when this was NOT true.”

Yes, hydroxychloroquine  has been prescribed for treatment of Lupus and rheumatism for over 20 years, and for prevention of malaria for over 50 years. It is considered so safe that it is even given to pregnant women and nursing mothers with no restrictions. There is a small number of people with a specific heart condition that should not take the drug, but those people can easily be spotted by evaluating their heart rhythm with a stethoscope, or by taking and evaluating an ECG.

There are over ten countries that prescribe HCQ, mostly in combination with Zinc and an antibiotic, as soon as COVID symptoms occur. When the illness has progressed to the point of autoimmune overreaction and the oxygen exchange is to the point of collapse it is too late and may even aggravate the situation.

How are these countries faring in the Coronavirus fight, compared to the rest of the world?

For the world as a whole, the death rate from the Coronavirus as of June 15 is 5.40% of diagnosed cases. and recovered cases versus deaths is 9.06 recorded recoveries for every death.

Taking the average, adjusted for the number of positive cases we get the average adjusted death rate for countries, where people are taking HCQ + Zinc when diagnosed positive, is 1.42%.

This means that the risk of death is reduced by a factor of 3.8 if HZQ + Zinc is taken as early as possible after a positive diagnosis for coronavirus!

Recovered cases versus deaths is an indicator of how fast patients recover after taking HCQ. Taking the average recovery ratio aover the number of cases, gives the median recovery ratio, of 51.8, compared to the recovery rate for the rest of the world of 9.06, an improvement of 5.7 times as many recorded recoveries for every death. This is an indicator of how fast people recover, but is a very lagging indicator, since many countries do not report recovered cases in a timely manner. If they dis, both the numbers for the ten countries, and for the world as a whole would look better, but it is the best we have for now.

The total positive cases for these ten countries are over 900,000, or about 11% of all positive tests so far, far more than any double blind controlled study could ever produce, and indicates that if implemented all across U.S. (and the world as a whole) the death rate from now on would be less than a third of what we are now experiencing. In addition hospitalizations would be greatly reduced.

WHO paused a double blind study out of an “abundance of caution”.

HCQ has been taken by over 900,000 patients testing positive for the coronavirus as soon as symptoms did arise or shortly thereafter. We do not need a double blind control study, the results speak for themselves.

Is it because it has been promoted by President Trump, and some would rather die than get cured because of that?

Is HCQ too cheap to promote? It is totally generic, no pharmaceutical company stands to gain from producing it, so there will be no study made by them. Any study will have to come from government.

I for one want to save lives.

Appendix: The data is used from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

The death rate from all causes doubles for every 8 years as you age or about 9% per year. The death rate from Coronavirus is remarkably the same as the death rate from all causes, adjusted for age. The world median age is 30.4 years. So let the world death rate be the norm and adjust for the median age for the 10 countries.

World death rate as of June 11 is 5.58% of diagnosed cases. and recovered cases versus deaths is 9.06

Compare this with 10 countries that use HCQ for most patients as soon as they test positive for the corona virus.

Turkey: Death rate 2.68%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 2.57%, recovered cases versus deaths  31.5, total cases 179,831

South Korea: Death rate 2.29%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 2.20% recovered cases versus deaths  38.7, total cases 12,155

Malaysia: Death rate 1.42%, median age 28.5, adjusted death rate 1.70% recovered cases versus deaths  63.9, total cases 8,505

Senegal: Death rate 1.33%, median age 18.8, adjusted death rate 3.57%, recovered cases versus deaths  50.4, total cases 5,247

Costa Rica: Death rate 0.68%, median age 31.3, adjusted death rate 0.64%, recovered cases versus deaths  64.2, total cases 1,744

United Arab emirates: Death rate 0.68%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate  0.65%, recovered cases versus deaths  98.5, total cases 42,982

Bahrain: Death rate 0.25%, median age 32.3, adjusted death rate 0.23%, recovered cases versus deaths  282.3, total cases 19,013

Morocco: Death rate 2.71%, median age 29.3, adjusted death rate 3.03%, recovered cases versus deaths  37.2, total cases 8,921

Russia: Death rate 1.33%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 1.28%, recovered cases versus deaths  40.4, total cases 545,458

Qatar: Death rate 0.097%, median age 30.9, but since 88% of the population are migrant workers between 20 and 60, the adjusted death rate is at least 8 times higher, or 0.78 %, and adjusted recovered cases versus deaths  94.5, total cases 82,077

 

 

 

Hydroxychloroquine + Zinc is the answer? Check the death rates of nine countries that use it.

This is a very interesting chart:

But wait. Not so fast. These countries have a younger population, and the death rate is much lower for younger people. This chart tells it all.

The death rate doubles for every 8 years as you age or about 9% per year. The world median age is 30.4 years. So let the world death rate be the norm

World death rate as of May 21 is 6.42% of diagnosed cases.

Turkey: Death rate 2.77%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 2.64%

South Korea: Death rate 2.37%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 2.26%

Malaysia: Death rate 1.61%, median age 28.5, adjusted death rate 1.91%

Senegal: Death rate 1.13%, median age 18.8, adjusted death rate 3.00%

Costa Rica: Death rate 1.11%, median age 31.3, adjusted death rate 1.02%

United Arab emirates: Death rate 0.88%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 0.84%

Bahrain: Death rate 1.43%, median age 32.3, adjusted death rate 1.20%

Morocco: Death rate 2.70%, median age 29.3, adjusted death rate 2.92%

Russia: Death rate 1.00%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 0.95%

Taking the average, not adjusted for the size of the populations we get the average adjusted death rate for countries, where people are taking HCQ + Zinc when diagnosed positive, is 1.89%.

This means that the risk of death is reduced by a factor of 3.4 if HZQ + Zinc is taken as early as possible after a positive diagnosis for coronavirus!

These 9 countries are living proof of it. Why are we not implementing it today?

 

 

 

Was Sweden right? Social distancing is better than stay at home and lockdown of the economy

Sweden and New Jersey are about the same size population wise, Sweden has 10 million people, New Jersey has about 9.2 million. For both, the foreign born population is about 20 percent. When the coronavirus pandemic hit they took quite different action at the same time:

New Jersey went into full lockdown with a near complete halt to the economy.

Sweden issued social distancing, crowds and travel restrictions, and hygiene regulations, but kept businesses and restaurants open within limits.

Yer their death rates followed the same bell curve as the disease marched on

 

Yet, there was one big difference, the deaths from the corona virus  was three times larger in New Jersey than in Sweden, the total cases was five times larger.

It is always touted that we need more testing, New Jersey has made 451,696 tests, Sweden only 177,500. More testing will find more mild and asymptomatic cases, but the deaths will be the same.

The solution is to let the young and healthy develop herd immunity, but protect the vulnerable, such as the old, obese, diabetic, people with hypertension, weak hearts or a compromised immune system.

 

 

Coronavirus death rates and trends for the five worst states versus the five best states. Look at Michigan versus South Dakota.

The trend of the five worst and the five best states of Covid-19 death rates versus percent of population tested:

State                     death rate               trend   percentage of population tested

.                             May 8      May 11  up/down     May 8   May 11

  1.  Michigan              9.48%        9.64%    up                2.4%       3.1%

2.  Connecticut      8,87%        8.91%   up                3.1%        3.7%

3.  New York          7.80%        7.80%     __                 5.6%      6.2%

4.  Lousiana           7.23%       7.32%     up                 4.4%      4.9%

5.  New Jersey       6.55%       6.71%     up                 4.4%      4.9%

….

46. Tennessee         1.66%      1.61%    down             3.4%       4.0%

47. Nebraska           1.17%       1.16%  down             2.0%        2.5%

48. Wyoming           1.08%      1.05%   down            2.1%         2.3%

49. Utah                    1.03%       1.06%  up                 4.3%          4.7%

50. South Dakota     0.98%      0.94%   down            2.4%         2.7%

Beside from the obvious fact that the five worst states are all run by Democrat Governors and the five best state are all run by Republicans, these are my observations:

The five worst states show a rising death rate, even though the test rate is increasing. The five best state show a falling death rate, which is to be expected as testing is increased.

Michigan has a Detroit problem. The COVID-19 death rate there is over 10%, many got turned away from the few hospitals and were sent home without first being tested. Governor Gretchen Whitmer seems more interested in controlling the healthy population than to protect the vulnerable.

Why Connecticut is second on the list I don’t know, but Hartford County has a problem with a death rate over 10%. It is also next to New York, where the death rate in New York City still is either 7.92% or 10.7% if you include probable deaths.

The problem with New York is that Governor Cuomo ordered nursing home facilities to accept COVID-19 patients, they are not set up to handle highly contagious patients, and so the infection and death rate among the most vulnerable population skyrocketed. One interesting statistics is that two thirds of all New York COVID-19 cases were from people staying home, not going out at all.

The problem with Louisiana is that it let Mardi Gras proceed, people came, did their thing and went back to where they came from, often to under-served areas.

New Jersey is next to New York. Need I say more?

On the other hand, the five best states concentrated their efforts to protect the at risk people, concentrating on hygiene and social distancing rather than trying to micromanage the healthy population. There seems to be no improvement in the outcome by adding testing. In addition the death rate among the five worst states is still rising, whereas the death rate in the five best states is declining.

Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, the state with the best outcome of all states so far did order a clinical test of using the combination Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days and that may be the reason the death rate is less than 1 percent. Unfortunately the FDA is concerned that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are being used inappropriately to treat non-hospitalized patients for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) or to prevent that disease.  Quote:” We authorized their temporary use only in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 when clinical trials are not available, or participation is not feasible, through an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA).  These medicines have a number of side effects, including serious heart rhythm problems that can be life-threatening.”

Here is my suggestion: Issue an executive order opening up a clinical study in the effectiveness of COVID-19 treatment with Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days, and open it up to any qualified Physician or Nurse Practitioner who want to participate. They do the heart test, check for other ailments and report the results to a central data base and a follow up report, and even if it is not a double blind study, once you have a million or so results the FDA can approve the medication. In the meantime over 90% of the patients were getting better, and hopefully nobody had given it to patients with severe preexisting heart conditions. The risk is minimal. It is already approved for Lupus, Rheumatism and Malaria, and the same protocol should apply here.

It is very important the drugs are administered as early as possible. By the time the patient is admitted to a hospital it may be too late. Especially if the patient is already on a ventilator it may do more harm than good.

Why is this study even necessary? This medication is too cheap, it is generic, so no pharmaceutical company is willing to foot the bill on something unprofitable, so it must be done by a university or through a government agency.

It is not that daring a thing to do. Here is a result of a COVID-19 study with more than 6,200 physicians in 30 countries.

  • The three most commonly prescribed treatments among COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine
  • Hydroxychloroquine usage among COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the U.S., 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan
  • Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy among COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
    • 75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.
  • The two most common treatment regimens for Hydroxychloroquine were:
    • (38%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 400 mg daily for five days
    • (26%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 200mg twice daily for four days
  • Outside the U.S., Hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the U.S. it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients
  • Globally, 19% of physicians prescribed or have seen Hydroxychloroquine prophylactically used for high risk patients, and 8% for low risk patients.

And this is a very recent tweet from president Donald Trump, without which frequent and persistent recommendation this drug combination would have already been approved, as it is in at least 12 other countries.

  • Hcq

 

Sweden was right after all. No lock-down but hygiene, social separation and limited gatherings will work just as well.

As Europe and North America continue suffering their steady economic and social decline as a direct result of imposing “lockdown” on their populations, other countries have taken a different approach to dealing with the coronavirus threat. You wouldn’t know it by listening to western politicians or mainstream media stenographers, there are also non-lockdown countries. They are led by Sweden, Iceland, Belarus, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Surprisingly to some, their results have been as good or better than the lockdown countries, but without having to endure the socio-economic chaos we are now witnessing across the world. For this reason alone, Sweden and others like them, have already won the policy debate, as well as the scientific one too.

Unlike many others, Sweden has not enforced any strict mass quarantine measures to contain COVID-19, nor has it closed any of its borders. Rather, Swedish health authorities have issued a series of guidelines for social distancing and other common sense measures covering areas like hygiene, travel, public gatherings, and protecting the elderly and immune compromised. They have kept all preschools, primary and secondary schools open, while closing college and universities who are now doing their work and lectures online. Likewise, many bars and restaurants have remained open, and shoppers do not have to perform the bizarre ritual of queuing around the block standing 2 meters apart in order to buy groceries.

According to the country’s top scientists, they are now well underway to achieving natural herd immunity. It seems this particular Nordic model has already won the debate.

Because Sweden decided to follow real epidemiological science and pursue a common sense strategy of herd immunity, it doesn’t need to “flatten of the curve” because its strategic approach has the added benefit of achieving a much more gradual and wider spread.

This chart proves the point:

How well are the other non-lockdown countries doing?

Iceland  has a total case count of 1799 and a death count of 10, all between March 21 and April 20.

Belarus has a total case count of 16705 and a death count of 99, and the death chart looks like this:

Here the daily death count has not risen above 5 per day. in a country of 9.5 million

 

Japan has a total case count of 14571 and a death count of 474, and the death chart looks like this:

Japan shows a unique pattern: It looked that they had beaten the coronavirus early, but then in April it started up again, but always at manageable levels.

 

South Korea has a total case count of 10793 and a death count of 250, and the death chart looks like this:

The death count rises, then stays constant for about 2 months and then declines, but slower than the new case count.

Taiwan has a total case count of 432 and a death count of 6, all between March 20 and April 10.  And this in a country of 24 million!

Compare this with Belgium, the center of European Union, and roughly the size of Sweden, it has a total case count of 49906 and a death count of 7844, and the death chart looks like this

This chart, representative of a lock-down country shows the same rise, flattop and decline as the charts of the non lock-down countries, but has a much higher death rate.

Quotes from https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-sweden-has-already-won-debate-covid-19-lockdown-policy

this blog has been updated with values up to July 9: https://lenbilen.com/2020/07/10/sweden-was-right-no-lock-down-but-hygiene-social-separation-and-limited-gatherings-will-work-just-as-well/

 

 

The worst pandemic the world has ever seen can be stopped quickly, and this is how.

The pandemic has spread to the whole world, only Tajikistan and North Korea  have yet to report any cases, but territories like Falkland Islands and Saint Pierre Miquelon have reported in, a total of 208 countries and territories as of now. Antarctica is so far spared, but nobody lives there anyhow, only a few thousand people on temporary assignments.

This means the COVID-19 virus is so contagious that it will affect us all, and with a 3 day doubling rate it will not take long until everybody is or has been infected, except for those with protection or immunity.

One possible such protection is the use of Hydroxychloroquine, or just plain Chloroquine Phosphate. These are common drugs to protect against malaria, and in countries where malaria is prevalent there seems to be much fewer cases than in countries without malaria threats. These drugs are safe for most people, but must be taken under advise and prescription from a physician.

Early last week, Dr. Birx in the daily coronavirus briefing promised to look into if there was any correlation between people already taking Hydroxychloroquine for relief from Lupus of Rheumatism and their incidence of contracting COVID-19. She was going to utilize the large, anonymous part of the Medicare and Medicaid database that lists everybody that receives these benefits. It is already used to study interactions between medicines and outcomes, a most valuable resource, but as always they normally take their jolly time to verify and certify the results. She wanted the results by last Friday to keep up with the enemy, the virus. If there is a statistically valid difference between Lupus or Rheumatic patients and the population in general we have our answer! (China have their answer, but they are not telling, presumably to maximize the damage in the rest of the world.) If the result is conclusive, here is the answer,

Step 1. Give the Hydroxychloroquine medication to all patients testing positive for COVID-19.

Step 2. Give the medication to all health care workers coming in contact with COVID-19 patients.

Step 3. Give this medication to all potentially coming in contact with COVID-19 positive people such as police, first responders, the military and so on.

Step 4. Give this medication to all who have been in contact with people having tested positive for COVID-19

Step 5. Make taking this medication a condition for international travel and travel to and from national hot spots.

Step 6. Offer this medication to the rest of the world.

The medicine can be manufactured by the tons if speedy approval is issued by the FDA from sources other than China! This is why President Trump invoked the Defense Production Act!

If we can ramp up this action plan speedily, we should be back to normal life within a month, except most of us will have to take one more medication, (but it is cheap). When the vaccine is approved and available this requirement will go away