Hydroxychloroquine + Zinc is the answer? Check the death rates of nine countries that use it.

This is a very interesting chart:

But wait. Not so fast. These countries have a younger population, and the death rate is much lower for younger people. This chart tells it all.

The death rate doubles for every 8 years as you age or about 9% per year. The world median age is 30.4 years. So let the world death rate be the norm

World death rate as of May 21 is 6.42% of diagnosed cases.

Turkey: Death rate 2.77%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 2.64%

South Korea: Death rate 2.37%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 2.26%

Malaysia: Death rate 1.61%, median age 28.5, adjusted death rate 1.91%

Senegal: Death rate 1.13%, median age 18.8, adjusted death rate 3.00%

Costa Rica: Death rate 1.11%, median age 31.3, adjusted death rate 1.02%

United Arab emirates: Death rate 0.88%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 0.84%

Bahrain: Death rate 1.43%, median age 32.3, adjusted death rate 1.20%

Morocco: Death rate 2.70%, median age 29.3, adjusted death rate 2.92%

Russia: Death rate 1.00%, median age 30.9, adjusted death rate 0.95%

Taking the average, not adjusted for the size of the populations we get the average adjusted death rate for countries, where people are taking HCQ + Zinc when diagnosed positive, is 1.89%.

This means that the risk of death is reduced by a factor of 3.4 if HZQ + Zinc is taken as early as possible after a positive diagnosis for coronavirus!

These 9 countries are living proof of it. Why are we not implementing it today?

President Trump is taking hydroxychloroquine! The international results are overwhelming, he is right!

In 2005 Dr. Anthony Fauci,the director of the (NIAID) National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, a position he still holds received the encouraging news that Chloroquine is a potent inhibitor of SARS coronavirus infection and spread. The SARS epidemic petered out, ao the clinical trial was never executed.

Now the news about the efficacy of HydroxyChloroquine is coming in hot and heavy. The results are very encouraging. This is from a recent study in Marseilles, France:

We retrospectively report on 1061 SARS-CoV-2 positive tested patients treated for at least three days with the following regimen: HCQ (200 mg three times daily for ten days) + AZ (500 mg on day 1 followed by 250 mg daily for the next four days). Outcomes were death, clinical worsening (transfer to ICU, and >10 day hospitalization) and viral shedding persistence (>10 days).

Results

A total of 1061 patients were included in this analysis (46.4% male, mean age 43.6 years – range 14–95 years). Good clinical outcome and virological cure were obtained in 973 patients within 10 days (91.7%). Prolonged viral carriage was observed in 47 patients (4.4%) and was associated to a higher viral load at diagnosis (p < .001) but viral culture was negative at day 10. All but one, were PCR-cleared at day 15. A poor clinical outcome (PClinO) was observed for 46 patients (4.3%) and 8 died (0.75%) (74–95 years old). All deaths resulted from respiratory failure and not from cardiac toxicity. Five patients are still hospitalized (98.7% of patients cured so far). PClinO was associated with older age (OR 1.11), severity of illness at admission (OR 10.05) and low HCQ serum concentration. PClinO was independently associated with the use of selective beta-blocking agents and angiotensin II receptor blockers (p < .05). A total of 2.3% of patients reported mild adverse events (gastrointestinal or skin symptoms, headache, insomnia and transient blurred vision).

Conclusion

Administration of the HCQ+AZ combination before COVID-19 complications occur is safe and associated with a very low fatality rate in patients.

Since then, prescriptions for the drug cocktail in Marseilles is up 7000%, and is also increasing in the rest of France, especially the Paris region.

But France is by no means the first country to go all out prescribing the drug cocktail. At least twelve countries are doing it, and Turkey and Morocco prescribe it to all with COVID-19 symptoms ( after first checking their heart). Russia joined six weeks later. Here are the results:

If we look at the results from onset to today, some interesting facts stand out

Turkey: Death rate 50 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 37

Morocco: Death rate 5 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 19.6

Russia: Death rate 19 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 19.6 and rising, but they started six weeks later and have not yet reached their infection maximum.

France: Death rate 433 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 2.2, but their new case maximum was 11 weeks ago and the maximum death rate was 9 weeks ago, way before any prescriptions increased.

U.S. does not do an even job of reporting recovered cases, so the results will only be valid for some states. Michigan seems to be one state that records recoveries.

Michigan: Death rate 492 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 5.7

The best state is South Dakota, but there Governor Kristi Noem conducted a semi clinical (not double blind) trial, and the results speak for themselves.

South Dakota: Death rate 50 per million. ratio of recovered cases/death is 63.27 !!

My suggestion is this: Give the HCQ+ AZT + Zinc +Vitamin D for 5 days as soon as symptoms occur. Give HZQ + Zinc + Vitamin D for 5 days to all the infected person’s contacts, then their quarantine is over, otherwise it is 14 days. Check for heart rhythm problems, but otherwise go ahead.

The results from Turkey + Russia + Morocco involved more than 170,000 recovered cases, far more than any clinical study, and showed the effect both before and after HCQ became the drug of choice, so the effect is real enough!

Was Sweden right? Social distancing is better than stay at home and lockdown of the economy

Sweden and New Jersey are about the same size population wise, Sweden has 10 million people, New Jersey has about 9.2 million. For both, the foreign born population is about 20 percent. When the coronavirus pandemic hit they took quite different action at the same time:

New Jersey went into full lockdown with a near complete halt to the economy.

Sweden issued social distancing, crowds and travel restrictions, and hygiene regulations, but kept businesses and restaurants open within limits.

Yer their death rates followed the same bell curve as the disease marched on

Yet, there was one big difference, the deaths from the corona virus was three times larger in New Jersey than in Sweden, the total cases was five times larger.

It is always touted that we need more testing, New Jersey has made 451,696 tests, Sweden only 177,500. More testing will find more mild and asymptomatic cases, but the deaths will be the same.

The solution is to let the young and healthy develop herd immunity, but protect the vulnerable, such as the old, obese, diabetic, people with hypertension, weak hearts or a compromised immune system.

Coronavirus death rates and trends for the five worst states versus the five best states. Look at Michigan versus South Dakota.

The trend of the five worst and the five best states of Covid-19 death rates versus percent of population tested:

State death rate trend percentage of population tested

. May 8 May 11 up/down May 8 May 11

Michigan 9.48% 9.64% up 2.4% 3.1%

2. Connecticut 8,87% 8.91% up 3.1% 3.7%

3. New York 7.80% 7.80% __ 5.6% 6.2%

4. Lousiana 7.23% 7.32% up 4.4% 4.9%

5. New Jersey 6.55% 6.71% up 4.4% 4.9%

….

46. Tennessee 1.66% 1.61% down 3.4% 4.0%

47. Nebraska 1.17% 1.16% down 2.0% 2.5%

48. Wyoming 1.08% 1.05% down 2.1% 2.3%

49. Utah 1.03% 1.06% up 4.3% 4.7%

50. South Dakota 0.98% 0.94% down 2.4% 2.7%

Beside from the obvious fact that the five worst states are all run by Democrat Governors and the five best state are all run by Republicans, these are my observations:

The five worst states show a rising death rate, even though the test rate is increasing. The five best state show a falling death rate, which is to be expected as testing is increased.

Michigan has a Detroit problem. The COVID-19 death rate there is over 10%, many got turned away from the few hospitals and were sent home without first being tested. Governor Gretchen Whitmer seems more interested in controlling the healthy population than to protect the vulnerable.

Why Connecticut is second on the list I don’t know, but Hartford County has a problem with a death rate over 10%. It is also next to New York, where the death rate in New York City still is either 7.92% or 10.7% if you include probable deaths.

The problem with New York is that Governor Cuomo ordered nursing home facilities to accept COVID-19 patients, they are not set up to handle highly contagious patients, and so the infection and death rate among the most vulnerable population skyrocketed. One interesting statistics is that two thirds of all New York COVID-19 cases were from people staying home, not going out at all.

The problem with Louisiana is that it let Mardi Gras proceed, people came, did their thing and went back to where they came from, often to under-served areas.

New Jersey is next to New York. Need I say more?

On the other hand, the five best states concentrated their efforts to protect the at risk people, concentrating on hygiene and social distancing rather than trying to micromanage the healthy population. There seems to be no improvement in the outcome by adding testing. In addition the death rate among the five worst states is still rising, whereas the death rate in the five best states is declining.

Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, the state with the best outcome of all states so far did order a clinical test of using the combination Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days and that may be the reason the death rate is less than 1 percent. Unfortunately the FDA is concerned that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are being used inappropriately to treat non-hospitalized patients for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) or to prevent that disease. Quote:” We authorized their temporary use only in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 when clinical trials are not available, or participation is not feasible, through an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). These medicines have a number of side effects, including serious heart rhythm problems that can be life-threatening.”

Here is my suggestion: Issue an executive order opening up a clinical study in the effectiveness of COVID-19 treatment with Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days, and open it up to any qualified Physician or Nurse Practitioner who want to participate. They do the heart test, check for other ailments and report the results to a central data base and a follow up report, and even if it is not a double blind study, once you have a million or so results the FDA can approve the medication. In the meantime over 90% of the patients were getting better, and hopefully nobody had given it to patients with severe preexisting heart conditions. The risk is minimal. It is already approved for Lupus, Rheumatism and Malaria, and the same protocol should apply here.

It is very important the drugs are administered as early as possible. By the time the patient is admitted to a hospital it may be too late. Especially if the patient is already on a ventilator it may do more harm than good.

Why is this study even necessary? This medication is too cheap, it is generic, so no pharmaceutical company is willing to foot the bill on something unprofitable, so it must be done by a university or through a government agency.

It is not that daring a thing to do. Here is a result of a COVID-19 study with more than 6,200 physicians in 30 countries.

The three most commonly prescribed treatments among COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine
Hydroxychloroquine usage among COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the U.S., 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan
Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy among COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
- 75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.
The two most common treatment regimens for Hydroxychloroquine were:
- (38%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 400 mg daily for five days
- (26%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 200mg twice daily for four days
Outside the U.S., Hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the U.S. it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients
Globally, 19% of physicians prescribed or have seen Hydroxychloroquine prophylactically used for high risk patients, and 8% for low risk patients.

And this is a very recent tweet from president Donald Trump, without which frequent and persistent recommendation this drug combination would have already been approved, as it is in at least 12 other countries.

Make a nationwide clinical test of using the combination Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days to treat COVID-19 patients. It will save lives!

The five worst and the five best states of Covid-19 death rates versus percent of population tested:

Michigan 9.48% death rate and 2.4% of population tested

2. Connecticut 8,87% 3.1%

3. New York 7.80% 5.6%

4. Lousiana 7.23% 4.4%

5. New Jersey 6.55% 4.4%

….

46. Tennessee 1.66% 3.4%

47. Nebraska 1.17% 2.0%

48. Wyoming 1.08% 2.1%

49. Utah 1.03% 4.3%

50. South Dakota 0.98% 2.4%

Beside from the obvious fact that the five worst states are all run by Democrat Governors and the five best state are all run by Republicans, these are my observations:

Why Connecticut is second on the list I don’t know, but Hartford County has a problem with a death rate over 10%

The problem with Louisiana is that it let Mardi Gras proceed and people came, did their thing and went back to where they came from, often to under-served areas.

New Jersey is next to New York. Need I say more?

On the other hand, the five best states concentrated their efforts to protect the at risk people, concentrating on hygiene and social distancing rather than trying to micromanage the healthy population. There seem to be no improvement in the outcome by adding testing. In addition the death rate among the five worst states is still rising, whereas the death rate in the five best states is declining.

Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, the state with the best outcome so far did order a clinical test of using the combination Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days and that may be the reason the death rate is less than 1 percent. Unfortunately the FDA is concerned that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are being used inappropriately to treat non-hospitalized patients for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) or to prevent that disease. Quote:” We authorized their temporary use only in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 when clinical trials are not available, or participation is not feasible, through an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). These medicines have a number of side effects, including serious heart rhythm problems that can be life-threatening.”

It is very important the drug is administered as early as possible. By the time the patient is admitted to a hospital it may be too late. Especially if the patient is already on a ventilator it may do more harm than good.

It is not that daring a thing to do. Here is a result of a COVID-19 study with more than 6,200 physicians in 30 countries.

The three most commonly prescribed treatments among COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine
Hydroxychloroquine usage among COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the U.S., 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan
Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy among COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
- 75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.
The two most common treatment regimens for Hydroxychloroquine were:
- (38%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 400 mg daily for five days
- (26%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 200mg twice daily for four days
Outside the U.S., Hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the U.S. it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients
Globally, 19% of physicians prescribed or have seen Hydroxychloroquine prophylactically used for high risk patients, and 8% for low risk patients.

Sweden was right after all. No lock-down but hygiene, social separation and limited gatherings will work just as well.

As Europe and North America continue suffering their steady economic and social decline as a direct result of imposing “lockdown” on their populations, other countries have taken a different approach to dealing with the coronavirus threat. You wouldn’t know it by listening to western politicians or mainstream media stenographers, there are also non-lockdown countries. They are led by Sweden, Iceland, Belarus, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Surprisingly to some, their results have been as good or better than the lockdown countries, but without having to endure the socio-economic chaos we are now witnessing across the world. For this reason alone, Sweden and others like them, have already won the policy debate, as well as the scientific one too.

Unlike many others, Sweden has not enforced any strict mass quarantine measures to contain COVID-19, nor has it closed any of its borders. Rather, Swedish health authorities have issued a series of guidelines for social distancing and other common sense measures covering areas like hygiene, travel, public gatherings, and protecting the elderly and immune compromised. They have kept all preschools, primary and secondary schools open, while closing college and universities who are now doing their work and lectures online. Likewise, many bars and restaurants have remained open, and shoppers do not have to perform the bizarre ritual of queuing around the block standing 2 meters apart in order to buy groceries.

According to the country’s top scientists, they are now well underway to achieving natural herd immunity. It seems this particular Nordic model has already won the debate.

Because Sweden decided to follow real epidemiological science and pursue a common sense strategy of herd immunity, it doesn’t need to “flatten of the curve” because its strategic approach has the added benefit of achieving a much more gradual and wider spread.

This chart proves the point:

How well are the other non-lockdown countries doing?

Iceland has a total case count of 1799 and a death count of 10, all between March 21 and April 20.

Belarus has a total case count of 16705 and a death count of 99, and the death chart looks like this:

Here the daily death count has not risen above 5 per day. in a country of 9.5 million

Japan has a total case count of 14571 and a death count of 474, and the death chart looks like this:

Japan shows a unique pattern: It looked that they had beaten the coronavirus early, but then in April it started up again, but always at manageable levels.

South Korea has a total case count of 10793 and a death count of 250, and the death chart looks like this:

The death count rises, then stays constant for about 2 months and then declines, but slower than the new case count.

Taiwan has a total case count of 432 and a death count of 6, all between March 20 and April 10. And this in a country of 24 million!

Compare this with Belgium, the center of European Union, and roughly the size of Sweden, it has a total case count of 49906 and a death count of 7844, and the death chart looks like this

This chart, representative of a lock-down country shows the same rise, flattop and decline as the charts of the non lock-down countries, but has a much higher death rate.

Quotes from https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-sweden-has-already-won-debate-covid-19-lockdown-policy

this blog has been updated with values up to July 9: https://lenbilen.com/2020/07/10/sweden-was-right-no-lock-down-but-hygiene-social-separation-and-limited-gatherings-will-work-just-as-well/

HZQ-AZ-Z 5 day cheap cure to early COVID-19 onset is over 90% effective. Why not approve it now?

Remdesivir Just Became The First Drug to Show a ‘Clear-Cut’ Effect in Treating COVID-19

ISSAM AHMED, AFP

30 APRIL 2020

COVID-19 patients on the antiviral remdesivir recovered about 30 percent faster than those on a placebo, the results of a major clinical trial showed Wednesday, as a top US scientist hailed the drug’s “clear-cut” benefit.

This was touted as a major breakthrough by Dr Fauci in a Presidential briefing yesterday, and indeed, it seems to show efficacy. Patients on the drug, made by Gilead Sciences, had a 31 percent faster time to recovery than those on a placebo. “Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo,” it said. The results also suggested that people who were on the drug were less likely to die, although the difference was quite small. The mortality rate was 8.0 percent for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6 percent for the placebo group.

On the other hand the FDA issued a warning for using the drug-combination HydroxyChloroQuine + AZithromycin + Zinc. AZ was approved in 1988, HCQ has been approved for malaria in over 50 years, and for Lupus and Rheumatism for decades, and all that requires for prolonged use is that an EKG is taken periodically to check for possible heart arrhythmia. It is an easy 5 day application and it shows good outcome in 91.7% of 1061 patients. Poor outcome was observed by 4,7% and in 0,47% the patient died. The age of those who died was 74 – 95 years old. If they had not taken this medication the death rate for people of that age is 5 – 8%. This is taken from the famous Marseille study.

Sequential CQ / HCQ Research Papers and Reports

January to April 20, 2020

Executive Summary Interpretation of the Data In This Report

The HCQ-AZ combination, when started immediately after diagnosis, appears to be a safe and efficient treatment for COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 0.5%, in elderly patients. It avoids worsening and clears virus persistence and contagious infectivity in most cases.

A cohort of 1061 COVID-19 patients, treated for at least 3 days with the HCQ-AZ combination and a follow-up of at least 9 days was investigated. Endpoints were death, worsening and viral shedding persistence. From March 3rd to April 9th, 2020, 59,655 specimens from 38,617 patients were tested for COVID-19 by PCR. Of the 3,165 positive patients placed in the care of our institute, 1061 previously unpublished patients met the inclusion criteria for a Hydroxychloroquine –Azithromycin trial.

Mean age was 43.6 years old and 492 were male (46.4%), As in other studies, no cardiac toxicity was observed in this study.

A good clinical outcome and virological cure was obtained in 973 patients out of a total pf 1061 patients within 10 days (91.7%).

Mortality was significantly lower in patients who had received > 3 days of HCQ-AZ than in patients treated with other regimens both at IHU and in all Marseille public hospitals

A poor outcome was observed for 46 patients (4.3%); –10 were transferred to intensive care units, 5 patients died (0.47%) (74-95 years old), 31 required 10 days of hospitalization or more.

Among this group, 25 patients are now cured and 16 are still hospitalized (98% of patients cured so far).

Why the different approaches to these two medications?

Most of the rest of the world are jumping on the HCQ-AZ-Z opportunity. Why not US?

Vitamin D – one weapon to combat the coronavirus.

The organization Grassroots health put out the results of 212 people that had the COVID-19 virus, roughly 50 each having a critical or severe or normal or mild outcome. The results were stunning. Nearly all with a high level of vitamin D level in the blood had a mild outcome, as opposed to those with a vitamin D deficiency.

Up to now vitamin D deficiency has mostly been a concern for the people with the following risk factors, but not as a virus fighter.

Osteoporosis or other bone disorder
Previous gastric bypass surgery
Age; vitamin D deficiency is more common in older adults.
Obesity
Lack of exposure to sunlight
Having a darker complexion
Difficulty absorbing fat in your diet

It should be fairly simple and fast to expand this analysis to a larger sample of people that also include people with antibodies to COVID-19 but never showed any symptoms.

If this holds true, we did the exact wrong thing by keeping people indoors in hope to slow the spread. Instead we should have encouraged people to be outdoors as much as possible, still practicing hygiene and social distance, give vitamin D to all over 65 (4000 IU), to all obese and people of dark complexion.

This is by no means the only suggestion, but it is one more weapon in the arsenal to combat this virus.

It is more dangerous to live in a state with a Democrat Governor than it is with a Republican Governor, at least in regard to COVID-19

Taking a snapshot of the COVID-19 cases as of Apr 23 I was curious to see if there were any differences in infection and death rates between states that has a Democrat Governor and those states that has a Republican Governor. And indeed there is, there are nearly three times as many cases (2.89) in states with a Democrat Governor as there are in states with a Republican governor, and the death rate is 62% higher, a more telling statistic.

There could be many reasons for this discrepancy, but here is some food for thought: The indoor environment is where most viruses spread, elevators, staircases, central ventilation, mass transportation just to name a few. This is typical of the urban environment. Living in rural areas on the other hand, much more time is spent outdoors, in sunshine, which kills the virus nearly immediately and fresh air is very good for basic health. Therefore to issue a nationwide ban to stay inside was the wrong thing to do. Cleanliness, social distancing and get outside as much as possible would have been much better. Go out, plant your garden, take your boat out for a weekend spin or visit your cottage in the woods. If you don’t have a cottage just take a walk in the woods and listen to the sounds of spring, but don’t put canned music in your ears. If you don’t have any woods nearby, use any area not crowded. That is one way to eliminate cabin fever.

Here are the statistics, state by state.

Democratic governor Cases Deaths

New York 268,581 20861

New Jersey 100,025 5428

California 39620 1531

Pennsylvania 37053 1685

Illinois 36934 1688

Michigan 35291 2997

Louisiana 25739 1599

Connecticut 23100 1639

Washington 12753 711

Virginia 11594 410

Colorado 11262 552

North Carolina 7854 281

Rhode Island 6256 189

Wisconsin 5052 257

Nevada 4208 189

Kentucky 3481 191

District of Columbia 3361 139

Delaware 3308 92

Minnesota 2942 200

Kansas 2734 113

New Mexico 2379 78

Oregon 2127 83

Maine 937 44

Hawaii 596 12

Montana 442 14

Total: 647,099 40,983 Death rate 6.33%

Republican governor Cases Deaths

Massachusetts 46023 2360

Florida 29648 987

Texas 22393 576

Georgia 21883 881

Maryland 15737 748

Ohio 14694 656

Indiana 13039 706

Tennessee 8266 170

Missouri 6384 243

Alabama 5832 201

Arizona 5769 249

Mississippi 5153 201

South Carolina 4917 150

Iowa 3924 96

Utah 3612 35

Oklahoma 3017 179

Arkansas 2599 45

Nebraska 2124 47

South Dakota 1956 9

Idaho 1836 54

New Hampshire 1670 51

West Virginia 981 31

Vermont 825 43

North Dakota 709 15

Wyoming 453 7

Alaska 337 9

Total: 223,781 8,749 Death rate 3.91%

Earth day 2020, the 150 year birthday of Vladimir Ilyich Ulyanov, a.k.a. Lenin. A Limerick.

We celebrate Lenin’s old birth day

in what is now renamed the Earth Day.

It’s a globalist plot;

it’s the climate change: Not!

It’s capitalism besmirch day.

When I came to the U.S. as a green card immigrant from a beautiful, clean Sweden in the spring of 1968 I was horrified at what I found. In Sweden they were worried about the fact that some lakes were fertilized four times more than the agricultural fields, acid rain killed the trouts in the already acid lakes and seeds laced with Mercury as a preservative killed off most of the eagles and owls. None of this seemed to bother the Americans. Coming in to Rochester in N.Y the stench from the dead fish washing up on the shore of lake Ontario was strong, I read of a river catching on fire in Ohio and the smell of coal burning power plants without scrubbers was bad, almost as bad as in the coal and steel region of Germany. It was also the height of the Vietnam wars, and people were protesting. Many of the protestors were communists at hart, and they also turned to pollution. The aerosol pollution led to a decrease in global temperatures, so the mantra was: The ice age is coming! The worst prediction I read was that the global temperatures would be then degrees Fahrenheit lower by the year 2000! Most predictions were not that wild, but they all pointed down, ice age, here we come! The urge to clean up the pollution grew stronger and the Earth Day movement was formed, but they had to find just the right day to have the first. Since this was to become a global movement they decided on the birthday of Lenin, his 100th, very fitting for a globalist movement. That was 1970 in Philadelphia, featured Ira Einhorn (The Unicorn Killer) as master of Ceremonies.

Now fifty years later the mantra has changed to climate change, specifically carbon pollution and carbon footprint. As the scientists were wrong then, the ice age is coming soon, so they are wrong now. The rise in CO2 causes climate change all right, and it would be really bad unless something else also changes as the CO2 concentration changes. Water vapor is a strong greenhouse gas, much stronger than CO2, and they both add to the greenhouse effect, but only at temperatures below freezing. In the tropics there is 50 times as much water vapor as there is CO2, so the tropics is not affected at all by rising CO2 levels. In the Arctic the situation is quite different. Water vapor is also a condensing gas, and forms clouds in the atmosphere. Clouds cool by day and warm by night, but the effect of cooling by day is much larger than the cooling by night, so clouds act as the major temperature regulator on earth. That is why the temperature was about the same as now when the CO2 level was over 10000 ppm, 25 times as large as now hundreds of millions of years ago. There is zero risk of overheating, there is no “tipping point” on the warm side, the clouds tale care of that. On the other hand we know that because we have too little CO2 in the air we will have a new ice age. When will it come? Not in the next thousand years, in fact, by increasing the CO2 levels we will delay the onset of the next ice age. What will happen at the Poles? There will be less cold in the winters, it will snow more but the summers will be about the same, melting more snow.

As to the corona virus the scientists predictions have so far been way off the mark, which just goes to show that making models before all facts are known produces faulty predictions every time. As Yogi Berra once said: “’It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future’” “… never make predictions – especially about the future”.