Category: science

American Medical Association Rescinds Previous Statement Against Prescription of Hydroxychloroquine to COVID-19 Patients. (Updated)

CHICAGO, IL – The American Medical Association (AMA), in a surprising move, has officially rescinded a previous statement against the use of Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) in the treatment of COVID-19 patients, giving physicians the okay to return to utilizing the medication at their discretion.

Previously, the AMA had issued a statement in March that was highly critical of HCQ in regards to its use as a proposed treatment by some physicians in the early stages of COVID-19. In addition to discouraging doctors from ordering the medication in bulk for “off-label” use – HCQ is typically used to treat diseases such as malaria – they also claimed that there was no proof that it was effective in treating COVID, and that its use could be harmful in some instances.

However, on page 18 of a recent AMA memo, issued on October 30, (resolution 509, page 3) the organization officially reversed their stance on HCQ, stating that its potential for good currently may supersede the threat of any potential harmful side effects.

So, there we have it. HCQ could not be approved before the election, because President Trump had recommended it. Meanwhile, with an 8o +% reduced risk of having to be admitted to the hospital if administered with Azithromycin and Zinc as soon as testing positive or symptoms occurred, many (70000+) lives could have been saved.

It has come to my attention that the resolution, while adopted got stopped before a new and valid recommendation was issued. There are powerful interests in the AMA that want to keep things as they are rather than advance real medical science based on real results, and never admit a mistake. Meanwhile, people are dying because of lack of solid, but inexpensive medical solutions.

The recommendation is still up on their website, but should it disappear, here it is , the important part part.

AMERICAN MEDICAL ASSOCIATION HOUSE OF DELEGATES

Resolution: 509 (November 2020)

Introduced by: Georgia

Subject:Hydroxychloroquine and Combination Therapies – Off-Label Use

Referred to:Reference Committee E

Whereas, SARS-CoV-2 is the novel coronavirus that causes COVID-19; and

2 Whereas, Three distinct stages of COVID-19 infection have been observed in some people who test positive for the disease and have variable degrees of symptoms as noted (1); and

 

Whereas, During the early infection phase (Stage 1), the virus multiplies inside the body and is likely to cause mild symptoms that may be confused with a common cold or flu; and

Whereas, The second phase is the pulmonary phase (Stage 2), when the Immune System becomes strongly affected by infection and leads to primarily respiratory symptoms such as persistent cough, shortness of breath and low oxygen levels. Problems with blood clotting–especially with the formation of blood clots–may be predominant in Stage 2; and

Whereas, The third hyperinflammatory phase (Stage 3), occurs when a hyperactivated immune system may cause injury to the heart, kidneys, and other organs. A “cytokine storm”–where the body attacks its own tissues–may occur in this phase; and

Whereas, There is no current Federal Drug Administration (FDA) indication for the treatment of Early Coronavirus infection, but early emergency use authorization (EUA) originally approved the use of hydroxychloroquine and then rescinded it (2); and

Whereas, The FDA limited use of convalescence plasma but now has rescinded that limitation (3); and

Whereas, Hydroxychloroquine and Chloroquine are FDA approved medications for over 50 years, and these medications are safely prescribed long-term for other indications (2); and

Whereas, AMA President, Patrice A. Harris, MD, issued the following statement: “The AMA is calling for a stop to any inappropriate prescribing and ordering of medications, including chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, and appealing to physicians and all health care professionals to follow the highest standards of professionalism and ethics” (4); and

Whereas, The AMA, American Pharmacists Association, and American Society of Health System Pharmacists issued a joint statement on March 25, 2020 on inappropriate ordering, prescribing, or dispensing of medications to treat COVID-19 (4); and

Whereas, Some states, pharmacy boards and institutions have forbidden the use of these medications for COVID-19 infection (4, 5); and

Whereas, A proposed regimen to treat COVID-19 for Stage 1, includes 10 days of hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin, zinc, and on occasion Vitamin D (6); and

Whereas, This regimen is not being advocated for Stage 2 and Stage 3 COVID therapy; and

Whereas, The original studies published in The Lancet and The New England Journal of Medicine(NEJM) initially citing harm due to hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine use were retracted by said journals due to dubious research methodology and incorrect conclusions (7, 8, 9); and

Whereas, AMA policy H-120.988, “Patient Access to Treatments Prescribed by Their Physicians,” supports a physician’s autonomy to prescribe medications the physician believes to be in the patient’s best interest, where the benefits outweigh risk and the patient consents; and

Whereas, Physicians have used off label medications for years and this use is supported by existing policy; and

Whereas, Data regarding harm have been limited due to poorly designed studies or studies usually in Stage 2 or later, or stopped without harm but no effect in phase 2 and hypothesis (7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12); and

Whereas, There are many studies that indicate that the use of Hydroxychloroquine, Azithromycin is effective and front-line physicians are using the therapy where permissible (13, 14, 15); and

Whereas, The COVID-19 pandemic is a serious medical issue, people are dying, and physicians must be able to perform as sagacious prescribers; therefore be it

RESOLVED, That our American Medical Association rescind its statement calling for physicians to stop prescribing hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine until sufficient evidence becomes available to conclusively illustrate that the harm associated with use outweighs benefit early in the disease course. Implying that such treatment is inappropriate contradicts AMA Policy H-120.988, “Patient Access to Treatments Prescribed by Their Physicians,” that addresses off label prescriptions as appropriate in the judgement of the prescribing physician (Directive to Take Action); and be it further

RESOLVED, That our AMA rescind its joint statement with the American Pharmacists Association and American Society of Health System Pharmacists, and update it with a joint statement notifying patients that further studies are ongoing to clarify any potential benefit of hydroxychloroquine and combination therapies for the treatment of COVID-19 (Directive to Take Action); and be it further

RESOLVED, That our AMA reassure the patients whose physicians are prescribing 18 hydroxychloroquine and combination therapies for their early-stage COVID-19 diagnosis by issuing an updated statement clarifying our support for a physician’s ability to prescribe an FDA-approved medication for off label use, if it is in her/his best clinical judgement, with specific reference to the use of hydroxychloroquine and combination therapies for the treatment of the earliest stage of COVID-19 (Directive to Take Action); and be it further

RESOLVED, That our AMA take the actions necessary to require local pharmacies to fill valid prescriptions that are issued by physicians and consistent with AMA principles articulated in AMA Policy H-120.988, “Patient Access to Treatments Prescribed by Their Physicians,” including working with the American Pharmacists Association and American Society of Health System Pharmacists.

(Directive to Take Action) Fiscal Note: Modest – between $1,000 – $5,000

Received: 10/23/20

References:

1. Stages of COVID-19. https://emergencymedicinecases.com/covid-19-screening-diagnosis-management/

2. Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Revokes Emergency Use Authorization for Chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine. https://www.fda.gov/news-events/press-announcements/coronavirus-covid-19-update-fda-revokes-emergency-use-authorization-chloroquine-and

3. Recommendations for Investigational COVID-19 Convalescent Plasma. https://www.fda.gov/vaccines-blood-biologics/investigational-new-drug-ind-or-device-exemption-ide-process-cber/recommendations-investigational-covid-19-convalescent-plasma

4. “The A.M.A. is calling for a stop to any inappropriate prescribing and ordering of medications, including chloroquine or hydroxychloroquine, and appealing to physicians and all health care professionals to follow the highest standards of professionalism and ethics,” said AMA President Patrice A. Harris, MD. The American Medical Association, American Pharmacists Association, and American Society of Health System Pharmacists issued a joint statement on March 25, 2020 on inappropriate ordering, prescribing or dispensing of medications to treat COVID-19. https://www.ama-assn.org/system/files/2020-04/board-of-pharmacy-covid-19-prescribing.pdf

5. Pharmacy Practice New. Rosenthal M. Hydroxychloroquine: Where Pharmacy, Medicine and Politics Intersect, Pharmacy Practice News August 8, 2020

6. Risch H. Opinion: Early Outpatient Treatment of Symptomatic, High-Risk Covid-19 Patients that Should be Ramped-Up Immediately as Key to the Pandemic Crisis Am J Epidemiol. 2020 May 27;kwaa093. doi: 10.1093/aje/kwaa093. Online ahead of print.

7. Piller C, Servick k. Two elite medical journals retract coronavirus papers over data integrity questions. https://www.sciencemag.org/news/2020/06/two-elite-medical-journals-retract-coronavirus-papers-over-data-integrity-questions#June 4, 2020

8. Lancet retraction website https://www.thelancet.com/action/showPdf?pii=S0140-6736%2820%2931180-6

9. NEJM Retraction: Cardiovascular Disease, Drug Therapy, and Mortality in Covid-19. N Engl J Med. DOI:

10.1056/NEJMoa2007621.

11. NIH halts clinical trial of hydroxychloroquine https://www.nih.gov/news-events/news-releases/nih-halts-clinical-trial-hydroxychloroquineResolution: 509 (November 2020) Page 4 of 6

12. Filippo Albani F, Fusina F , Giovannini A et al. Impact of Azithromycin and/or Hydroxychloroquine on Hospital Mortality in COVID-19. J. Clin. Med. 2020, 9, 2800; doi:10.3390/jcm9092800

13. Schwartz RA, Suskind RH DTH-9999-e13785 Azithromycin and COVID‐19Prompt Early Use at First Signs of this Infection in Adults and Children an Approach Worthy of Consideration. DTH-999-e13785 doi 10.1111/dth.13785

14. Meo SA, Klonoff DC, Akram J. Efficacy of chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine in the treatment of COVID-19 European Review for Medical and Pharmacological Sciences 2020; 24: 4539-4547

15. US ‘frontline’ doctors’ website exposes ‘criminal’ campaign by tech giants, govt agencies to block COVID med file:///C:/Users/JGoldman/Documents/Corona%20Virus/critique%20of%20HCQ/US%20%E2%80%98frontline%E2%80%99%20doctors%E2%80%99%20website%20exposes%20%E2%80%98criminal%E2%80%99%20campaign%20by%20tech%20giants,%20govt%20agencies%20to%20block%20COVID%20med%20_%20Blogs%20_%20Lifesitenews.html

Monulparivir: New Antiviral Drug That Completely Suppresses the Transmission of the COVID-19 in 24 Hours.

Dec 07, 2020 12:54 PM EST Madz D.(staff@moneytimes.com)

The COVID-19 vaccine would be the answer to end the pandemic. But even if the vaccine distribution starts today, it won’t be enough for all people who need it worldwide. 

A new antiviral drug, Molnupiravir or MK-4482 / EIDD-2801, can manage to “completely” stop the transmission of the virus within 24 hours, as per the Institute of Biomedical Sciences of Georgia State University studies.

Researchers explained in the published work in the journal Nature Microbiology that it is the first demonstration of an oral drug available to quickly block the transmission of SARS-CoV-2 that would be a game-changer.

According to Entrepreneur, Emory University in Atlanta developed Molnupiravir through an innovation company Drug Innovation Ventures at Emory (DRIVE), licensed by Ridgeback Biotherapeutics, and partnered with Merck & Co. The antiviral drug was initially being made to treat the flu and prevent the coronavirus from duplicating itself and creating errors amid viral RNA replication.

Tests were carried out on ferrets and observed that they reduced the number of viral particles and the experts’ details. Then, ferrets were put to others, which had not been treated. In the second group, none of the ferrets became infected with COVID-19.

Dr. Robert Cox, the co-lead author of the studyand a postdoctoral fellow in the Plumper group, said, “We believe that ferrets are a relevant transmission model. Because they easily spread SARS-CoV-2, but for the most part they do not develop a serious disease, which is very similar to the spread of SARS-CoV-2 in young adults.”

Cox added that they observed early that the antiviral drug has a broad-spectrum activity to fight respiratory RNA viruses. Besides, the oral treatment of infected animals with the Mogul Parivar reduced the number of viral particles spread by different magnitude orders, which reduced the transmission. Monulparivir’s properties are a powerful candidate for the pharmacological suppression of COVID-19, the report adds.

COVID-19 patients treated with the antiviral drug could be non-infectious within 24 hours of the initial treatment if the ferret-based data will be translated to humans. Monulparivir can be taken orally, and treatment can start early for a triple potential benefit: shortening the infectious phase to alleviate the emotional, shortening the infectious phase to lessen the emotional and socioeconomic cost of prolonged patient isolation immediately contain local outbreaks.

The antiviral drug is now on an advanced phase II/ III clinical trial and is being tested in three various doses every 12 hours within five days in patients with COVID-19. 

Americans are skeptical about the COVID-19 vaccines, with a “warp speed” timeline that blunts confidence and fears political interference in the shots. According to NBC News, two promising vaccines lead the release within weeks; experts in immunization behavior and ethics say they assume attitudes to shift from widespread hesitancy to urgent and heated demand.

 Dr. Paul Offit, a vaccinologist with Children’s Hospital of Philadelphia, said in a recent JAMA Network webinar, “People talk about the anti-vaccine people being able to kind of squelch uptake. I don’t see that happening.”

These are exciting days!

Have we found the cure to the flu?

In the days before antibiotics there was a cure for Syphilis: Give the patients malaria.The fever from malaria was so high that it killed the Syphilis bacteria. This was a drastic method but it worked.

Now CDC HAS FOUND THE CURE FOR FLU: CORONAVIRUS

This is a capture of the entirety of flu cases recorded by the CDC for the last 8 weeks.

https://www.cdc.gov/flu/weekly/weeklyarchives2020-2021/data/whoAllregt_phl48.html

Influenza Positive Tests Reported to CDC by U.S. Public Health Laboratories

2020-2021 A(H3N2v) A           A(H3) A(unable A(Subtyping  B BVIC BYAM Total

Season                         (H1N1)             to sub-           not                                       # Tested

Week                            pdm09                  type)     performed)

202040        0              0            0          0                2                  0    0       0          11433

202041        0              1            0          0                3                  2    1       0           11914

202042        0              0           1           0                4                  3    0       0          10960

202043        0             1            2           0                8                  1    0       2          15307

202044        0             0            2           0                4                11    1       2          19916

202045        0             1            1           0                5                 2    1       1           21439

202046        0             0            1           0                5                 2    0       0          20001

202047        0             2            2           0               0                  2    1       2          19418

202048        0             0            0          0                3                  1    1       0          10175

Week 48 ended November 29, 2000

We are now in the tenth week of the flu season and still no sign of the flu.

Have nearly all the flu cases been misdiagnosed as coronavirus, since coronavirus is the primary cause of everything found if the patient tests positive, or has all this social distancing and clean your hands prevented the seasonal flu outbreak?

We should all know from history that the major cause of the high death toll in the Spanish flu was not the flu itself but the ensuing pneumonia caused by the mask wearing mandate, masks that were seldom properly sterilized.

Seattle policemen wearing protective gauze face masks during influenza epidemic of 1918 which claimed millions of lives worldwide (Photo by Time Life Pictures/National Archives/The LIFE Picture Collection via Getty Images)

 

Benford’s law and the 2020 election. A Limerick on fraud.

Elections and fraud in this nation

cannot stand a close observation.

Zero Trump votes are added

but Joe Biden’s are padded

an act of the left’s desperation

This is a map of the extent to which Dominion voting machines software is presently used. When votes are tallied it produces results that are not credible according to statistical science.

Joe Biden’s votes violate Benford’s Law, President Trump’s do not.

Benford’s law or the first-digit law, is used to check if a set of numbers are naturally occurring or manually fabricated. It has been applied to detect the voting frauds in Iranian 2009 election and various other applications including forensic investigations.

Benford’s Law, also called the Newcomb–Benford law, the law of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. The law states that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the leading digit is likely to be small. For example, in sets that obey the law, the number 1 appears as the leading significant digit about 30% of the time, while 9 appears as the leading significant digit less than 5% of the time. If the digits were distributed uniformly, they would each occur about 11.1% of the time. Benford’s law also makes predictions about the distribution of second digits, third digits, digit combinations, and so on.

Plots of the first digits of counts in various precincts and wards for selected counties/cities.

This is Pittsburgh.

But even cities where we know the outcome, the numbers have been manipulated such as

When this fraud is corrected the electoral map will look quite different, and may even swing a few house and senate votes.

Europe and shutdowns, Sweden and “herd immunity”. The results are in on coronavirus response success

The Corona-virus pandemic has now been with us nine months and for the first time the trends ate looking better, giving us hope that the worst is over.

In the beginning the worldwide death rate was 8,65% and it is now down to 1.31%, a reduction of 84.8%. Total deaths worldwide are about 1,200,000 which is still less then the annual TB deaths that amount to 1.6 million, of which 300,000 are HIV positive.

The corresponding numbers for U.S.A :  7.02%  death rate at the beginning of the disease. It is now down to 1.04%, an 85.2% decrease. With unrestricted availability to take HCQ+ we can reduce the death rate even further.

Now it is getting interesting. While nearly all industrialized nations shut down their non-essential functions, such as schools, elective surgery, elective medical diagnostics, non food stores, flights, travel, restaurants, non essential government services and the like Sweden took a different approach. They kept their elementary schools open, did not close stores and restaurants, only large gatherings, mandated increased hygiene and to practice social distancing, and then they let the virus rage as a normal flu, and waited for the so called “herd immunity.” Wearing masks were never mandated, only encouraged when social distancing was impossible to maintain. Sweden did their best though to protect the vulnerable.

In the beginning the results were disastrous. The initial death rate was over 21%, it seemed  like a failed attempt, but then things started to calm down. In late spring the death rate had settled down to 9.2%, but then came a second wave of cases and everyone was bracing for the worst. But the death rate  did not rise, and is now down to 0.24%. (Oct 30)

The rest of Europe (except Belarus) did try to limit the spread of the coronavirus  using heavy lockdowns. This limited the spread of the virus for a while, and through the summer it looked like it was the right thing to do, but “herd immunity was never achieved. Now, when the flu season has arrived the cases are rising again, and for the western Europe nations cases are now rising, and so are deaths. In Germany the death rate has increased 14-fold since the summer minimum, in Spain the death rate is increased 80-fold, in France the death rate is increased 30-fold.  The United Kingdom death rate is increased 35-fold and the kingdom is ready to issue another draconian lockdown, other countries are also issuing curfews and other restrictions.

The virus will run its course until herd immunity is achieved. Vaccines will finally limit the pandemic. Thanks to President Trump’s “warp speed” initiative, paying private enterprise to produce the vaccine at the same time level 3 testing is underway so the vaccine is available as soon as it is approved, vaccines will be available weeks from now rather than years from now.

This is expensive, but if any of the 6 vaccines succeed, it was worth it, if all fails we are no worse off than if we wreck the economy with another lockdown that only delays the inevitable, herd immunity achieved years from now with more deaths than if we had followed the example of Sweden.

Climate change and the Paris climate agreement. A Limerick.

Re-enter the Paris accord?

A folly we ill can afford.

We’ll help China pollute,

they won’t still give a hoot.

Re-sign is a Damocles sword.

I am a climate realist, that means I look at the totality of what is happening to the climate with increasing CO2 levels, and what it means for our future.

Climate alarmists and IPCC believe that the thermal response to increasing CO2 is a feedback gain from increasing water vapor that results from higher temperatures, leading to much higher temperatures. Current climate model averages indicate a temperature rise of 4.7 C by 2100 if nothing is done, 4.65 C if U.S keeps all its Paris commitments and 4.53 C if all countries keep their part of the agreement. In all cases, with or without Paris agreement we are headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.

As the chart indicates, implementing all of the Paris agreement will delay the end of mankind as we know it by at most 4 years.

The cost is staggering. The developing countries want at least 100 billion dollars a year to implement the Paris accord, all paid for by the developed countries. The most infuriating thing about that is that China is considered a developing country, and being a developed country The U.S., while reducing their CO2 footprint will be paying China until the year 2030 to further develop their coal burning electric plants until the China CO2 output is six times our output. They had plans to add 65 GW  (+6.5%) of coal-burning power plants this year alone to their grid. The china-virus delayed that by a few months, but their intent is still to dominate the world by 2025. They already consume 48% of the world’s output of coal, produce over half of the world’s steel and cement (it takes a lot of reinforced concrete to create multiple islands in the South China Sea).

clip_image004

 

Myself and quite a few scientists, meteorologists, but mostly engineers believe the feedback loop in nature is far more complicated than what the climate models suggest, in fact, there is a large negative feedback in the system, preventing a temperature runaway, and we have the observations to prove it.  The negative feedback manifests itself in 2 ways:

Inorganic feedback, represented by clouds. If there were no clouds, the tropics would average a temperature of  140 F  thanks to the greenhouse effect. The clouds reflect back up to 300 W/m2 into space rather than the same energy being absorbed into water or soil. Clouds are highly temperature dependent, especially cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds. The figure below shows temperature at the equator in the Pacific Ocean.

Cumulus clouds are formed in the morning, earlier the warmer it is, and not at all if it is cold, thunderstorms appear when it is warm enough. The figure shows how temperature in the equatorial Pacific rises until about 8:30 a.m, then actually declines between 9 and 12 a.m. even as the sun continues to rise. The feedback, which was positive at low temperatures becomes negative at warmer temperatures, and in the equatorial doldrums, surface temperature has found its equilibrium. No amount of CO2 will change that. Equatorial temperature follows the temperature of the ocean, warmer when there is an el niño, cooler when there is a la niña. Here is a chart of temperature increases since satellite measurements began as a function of latitude.

The tropics follow the ocean temperature closely, no long term rising trend, the extra-tropics are also stable.

Not so at the poles. the temperature record indicate a noticeable warming with large spikes up and down, up to 3 degree Celsius difference from year to year, especially the Arctic. So, how much has the Arctic melted? Here is a chart of Arctic ice cover for 31 May for the last 39 years.

If this trend continues, all ice may melt in 300 to 400 years, faster if there is further warming and nothing else is changing. Let’s take a look at the Arctic above the 80th latitude, an area of about 3,85 million square kilometers, less than 1% of the earth’s surface, but it is there where global warming is most pronounced. Here are two charts from 2016 and 2017.

meanT_2017

Starting at summer 2016, the Arctic was melting quite normally, but something else happened that is not shown in the chart. Every 5 years or so, the Arctic suffer a large storm with full hurricane strength during the summer. In 2016 there was no one, but two such storms, and as they happened late in the season when the ice is rotten they result in a large ice loss, making the ice minimum the lowest on record, and the ice volume nearly 4,000 Gigatons (Gt) less than the 30 year normal. Then the temperature from October thru April did run 7 degree Celsius warmer than normal with a spike as high as 20 degrees warmer. Yet today the deficit is down to 2,500 Gt. What happened? It snowed more than normal. In the Arctic, it gets warmer under clouds, warmer still when it snows. Take a look at Greenland and what happened during the freezing season. It snowed and snowed and Greenland accumulated 150 Gt more ice than normal. So, at that point in the season we were a total of 1650 Gt ahead of previous year, and this was with Arctic temperatures being seven degrees warmer than normal during the cold season. The counter-intuitive conclusion is that it may very well be that warmer temperatures produces accumulation of snow and ice, colder temperatures with less snow accumulates less. What happens during the short Arctic summer? With more snow accumulated it takes longer to melt prevous year’s snow, so the temperature stays colder longer. In 2017 the Arctic temperature was running colder than normal every day since May 1. If this melting period ended without melting all snow, multi year ice will accumulate, and if it continued unabated, a new ice age would start.

 

The second feedback loop is organic. More CO2 means more plant growth.  According to NASA there has been a significant greening of the earth, more than 10% since satellite measurements begun. This results in a cooling effect everywhere, except in areas that used to be treeless where they have a warming effect. The net effect is that we can now feed 2 billion more people than before without using more fertilizer. Check this picture from NASA, (now they can publish real science again) showing the increased leaf area extends nearly everywhere.

In addition, more leafs changes the water cycle, increases evapotranspiration, and more trees and vegetation reduces erosion and unwanted runoff. Good news all around.

In short, taking into account the negative feedback occurring the earth will warm up less than 0.5 degrees from now, not at all in the tropics, and less than 3 degrees at the poles. Without the Paris agreement there will be no increase in the death rates in the cities, except from the slight increase of city temperatures due to the urban heat effect. With the Paris agreement we will have to make draconian cuts in our use of electricity, meaning using much less air conditioning and even less heating, and life expectancy will decline.

We need energy. It takes a lot of energy to clean up the planet. Developing nations should be encouraged to use electricity rather than cooking by dried cow-dung. Coal is limited, and we should leave some for our great great grandchildren. Oil and gas should be preserved for aviation, since there is no realistic alternative with a high enough energy density. Therefore I am an advocate for Thorium based nuclear energy, being safer than Uranium based nuclear energy, and, properly implemented will produce about 0.01% of the long term radioactive waste compared to conventional nuclear power plants. And there is a million year supply  of Thorium available. Once the electricity power plants have fully switched away from coal and gas, then and only then is it time to switch to electric cars. The case for Thorium generated electric energy can be found here.

If HCQ+Zinc+Zithromax had been approved for outpatient use as soon as symptoms of COVID-19 occurred we could have saved about 90000 lives by now!

The SARS-Coronavirus appeared first in China in 2002. It spread rapidly, but before NIH could develop a vaccine it disappeared. What they found instead was that chloroquine (same as hydroxychloroquine, but with more side-effects) was an effective anti-virus fighter, so effective that it could completely abolish the SARS-Covid infection. This was in 2005

Fast forward to 2020. This time they were not going to let the cure get established before the vaccine. Hydroxychloroquine + Zinc + Zithromax is an effective cure if taken as soon as symptoms occur. HCQ by itself is a good prophylactic, completely safe for nearly everybody (even for pregnant women and nursing mothers), and has been approved for Lupus and rheumatoid arthritis for scores of years without problem. These people take HCQ as long as they have symptoms.

How many lives would have been saved if the HCQ treatment had been approved, say in April, one month after president Trump advocated it?

There are many nations that implement HCQ treatment as soon as symptoms occur, and they have a much lower deathrate. Check this chart!

Vaccine may not be as effective as first thought. The china corona virus has mutated into  at least11 strains and continues to mutate, so a universal vaccine cannot be developed, but like the flu, every year will have a new regional strain to combat.

The solution is to implement a hydroxychloroquine + Zinc + Zithromax regimen, both as a prophylactic and as a therapy as soon as symptoms occur.

According to the Ford study treatment with hydroxychloroquine cut the death rate significantly in sick patients hospitalized with COVID-19 – and without heart-related side-effects, the new study published by Henry Ford Health System. The death rate was cut in half for patients treated with HCQ. It is even more dramatic if HCQ is administered as soon as symptoms occur, over 40 international studies have shown an up to 80+% reduction in death rates. For some reason FDA and CDC do not acknowledge international studies. They rather let people die than accept a drug that has been approved for 64 years, and given freely to people with Lupus. It is so safe it is even given to pregnant women and nursing mothers.

How many extra deaths are we talking about? HCQ is already administered in the U.S.under the right to try law by about 16% of all cases. If it had been recommended and approved in April for emergency use, one month after President Trump recommended it based on excellent results in french studies, about half the deaths from then on could have been avoided. It adds up, about 1.5% of all cases since April 15, or about 90,000 deaths could have been avoided,  and moving forward about 600 deaths a day. This is in my opinion a low estimate.

Another significant moment in the hydroxychloroquine debate came on July 23 in the form of an opinion piece. Harvey A. Risch, MD, PhD, a professor of epidemiology at Yale School of Public Health with many years of healthcare experience, wrote in favor of the medication, calling it “highly effective” and describing physicians who use it “in the face of widespread skepticism” as heroes.

In his opinion piece, Risch listed several studies that have pointed to the benefits of treating COVID-19 with hydroxychloroquine. He also wrote about how the medication has been politicized and said it “has not been used properly in many studies.”

“In the future, I believe this misbegotten episode regarding hydroxychloroquine will be studied by sociologists of medicine as a classic example of how extra-scientific factors overrode clear-cut medical evidence,” he concluded. “But for now, reality demands a clear, scientific eye on the evidence and where it points. For the sake of high-risk patients, for the sake of our parents and grandparents, for the sake of the unemployed, for our economy and for our polity, especially those disproportionally affected, we must start treating immediately.”

His assessment of lives saved with HCQ ++ was 70,000 lives would have been saved as of Aug 1 if HCQ had been used as early as possible. He is the medical doctor, I have been using public data drawn from a population of 2 billion people, and we reached a very similar conclusion.

Do it! The fact that President Trump did advocate it as early as March should not be a hindrance to save 600 lives a day!

Climate change and tornadoes. Are they really increasing?

One of the sacred tenets of climate change is that extreme weather is increasing. Is that really so?

Let us look at tornadoes. They occur when cold and hot air masses collide and in the fringes of hurricanes. Sometimes they can also be triggered by frontal thunderstorms. So if extreme weather increases by time, so should tornadoes, both in severity and numbers. Let us see if that is so.

So far this year, the number of tornadoes are slightly below normal:

If we look at “tornado alley”, the state of Oklahoma we see that there has been about the same number of tornadoes for the last  65 years

but but the number of strong tornadoes , F2, F3, F4 and f5 have been trending down for the same 65 years. How is this statistics holding up for U.S. as a whole?

Severe tornado trend is down:

And most significant of all, the worst tornadoes of all are declining. The last F5 tornado occurred in 2013!

Thanks to increased CO2, the poles are slightly less cold in the winter, while the temperatures at the equator are not changing with increased CO2, water vapor is the all dominant greenhouse gas, there is less temperature gradient between equator and poles, leading to less violent weather. While the number of tornadoes stay about constant, the number of strong tornadoes decrease. This is good news.

Climate change and wildfires. The problem is more due to forest management.

The natural life cycle of forests in the dry part of western United States is rejuvenation and growth, interrupted by forest fires. In fact, the lodgepole pine requires a fire to release the seeds in the cones. Without the fire they will not  germinate. Forest fires every generation is the normal occurrence for the dry, western forests. Then in the 1930’s, to stop the wild fires they started forest management in earnest, dead trees removed and underbrush cleared, and wildfires were cut by over 90%. They also harvested a lot of good, mature trees, but that is a different story. The chart below tell the facts:

Forest fires were very few from the late 50’s to late 90’s. But with forest management comes a price. Nature can no longer support as many birds and animals as before, and some species were already vulnerable and close to extinction. So, partly due to the power of the Sierra Club and other organizations it was decided to return nature to its original state as much as possible. That would be fine except we no longer live in the 19’th century, when California had less than a million inhabitants. It now has 40 million inhabitants and use up all the water that rains on it and more. People have to live somewhere, so they make beautiful settlements in tinder dry forests. This is the problem out west. You can not have settlements in an unmanaged forest and get away with it, the fire will get you sooner or later. The solution is to set aside some forest lands for natural growth, but only where nobody lives and manage all other forests. Climate change has very little to do with western forest fires, there has always been years of droughts, interrupted by torrential rains. As it was in biblical times in Israel and Egypt, so it is in the American west.

CO2 concentration has increased 50% since pre-industrial times causing climate change. Thorium Nuclear Power is the answer. A Limerick.

As CO2 warms up the poles

burned oil, gas and coal play their roles.

CO2 is still good;

makes plants green, grows more food,

and clouds are the climate controls.

We live in interesting times, the CO2 concentration has increased 50% since the beginning of industrialization. In the last 30 years the level has risen 17%, from about 350 ppm to nearly 410 ppm. This is what scares people. Is is time to panic and stop carbon emissions altogether as Greta Thunberg has suggested?As if on cue the climate models have been adjusted, and they suddenly show a much higher rate of temperature increase, in this case what is supposed to happen to global temperatures for a doubling of CO2 from pre-industrial times, from 270ppm to 540ppm.

There are two ways to approach this problem. The models make certain assumptions about the behavior of the changing atmosphere and model future temperature changes. This is the approach taken by IPCC for the last 32 years. These models are all failing miserably when compared to actual temperature changes.

The other way i to observe what is actually happening to our temperature over time as the CO2 increases. We have 50 years of excellent global temperature data, so with these we can see where, when and by how much the earth has warmed.

The most drastic temperature rise on earth has been in the Arctic above the 80th latitude. In the winter of 2019 it was 4C above the 50 year average. See charts from the Danish Meteorological Institute:

Note, there is no increase at all in the summer temperatures!

The fall temperature saw an increase of 4C and the spring temperature saw an increase of about 2.5C.

Notice: In this chart the there is no recorded summer temperature increase at all, but the onset of fall freezing was delayed by 3 weeks.

The 5 thru 8C winter rise of temperature is significant, most would even say alarming, but my response is, why is that?

To get the answer we must study molecular absorption spectroscopy and explain a couple of facts for the 97% of all scientists who have not studied molecular spectroscopy. IPCC and most scientists claim that the greenhouse effect is dependent on the gases that are in the atmosphere, and their combined effect is additive according to a logarithmic formula. This is true up to a certain point, but it is not possible to absorb more than 100% of all the energy available in a certain frequency band! For example: If water vapor absorbs 50% of all incoming energy in a certain band, and CO2 absorbs another 90% of the energy in the same band, the result is that 95% is absorbed, (90% + 50% * (100% – 90%)),  not 140%, (90% + 50%).

The following chart shows both CO2 and H2O are absorbing greenhouse gases, with H20 being the stronger greenhouse gas, absorbing over a much wider spectrum, and they overlap for the most part. But it also matters in what frequency range s they absorb.

For this we will have to look at the frequency ranges of the incoming solar radiation and the outgoing black body radiation of the earth. It is the latter that causes the greenhouse effect. Take a look at this chart:

The red area represents the observed amount of solar radiation that reaches the earth’s surface, the white area under the red line represents radiation absorbed in the atmosphere. Likewise, the blue area represents the outgoing black body radiation that is re-emitted. The remaining white area under the magenta, blue or black line represents the retained absorbed energy that causes the greenhouse effect.

Let us  now take a look at the Carbon Dioxide bands of absorption, at 2.7, 4.3 and 15 microns. Of them the 2.7 and 4.3 micron bands absorb where there is little black body radiation, the only band that is of interest is at 15 microns, and that is in a band where the black body radiation has its maximum. However it is also in a band where water vapor also absorb, not as much as CO2,only about 20% to 70% as much. Water vapor or absolute humidity is highly dependent on the temperature of the air, so at 30C there may be 50 times as much water vapor, at 0C there may be ten times as much water vapor, and at -25C there may be more CO2 than water vapor. At those low temperatures the gases are mostly additive. In the tropics with fifty times more water vapor than CO2, increased CO2 has no influence on the temperature whatsoever. Temperature charts confirm this assertion:

Here the temperature in the tropics displays no trend whatsoever. It follows the temperature of the oceans, goes up in an El Niño and down in a La Niña. The temperature in the southern hemisphere shows no trend. In the northern temperate region there is a slight increase, but the great increase is occurring in the Arctic. There is no increase in the Antarctic yet even though the increase in CO2 is greater in the Antarctic and the winter temperature in the Antarctic is even lower than in the Arctic. So CO2 increase cannot be the sole answer to the winter temperature increase in the Arctic.

There is an obvious answer. When temperatures increase the air can contain more moisture and will transport more moisture from the tropics all the way to the arctic, where it falls as snow. Is the snow increasing in the Northern Hemisphere?

Let us see what the snow statistics show. These are from the Rutgers’ snow lab.

The fall snow extent is increasing, and has increased by more than 2 percent per year.

The winter snowfall has also increased but only by 0.04 percent per year. The snow covers all of Russia, Northern China, Mongolia, Tibet, Kashmir and northern Pakistan, Northern Afghanistan, Northern Iran, Turkey, Part of Eastern Europe, Scandinavia, Canada, Alaska, Greenland and part of Western and Northern United States.

In the spring on the other hand the snow pack is melting faster, about 1.6 percent less snow per year. One of the major reasons for an earlier snow-melt is that the air is getting dirtier, especially over China, and to some extent Russia. The soot from burning coal and mining and manufacturing changes the albedo of the snow. The soot is visible on old snow all the way up to the North Pole. The other reason is that the poles are getting warmer. In the fall and winter it is mostly due to increased snowfall, but in the spring, as soon as the temperature rises over the freezing point, melting occurs.

So the warming of the poles, far from being an impending end of mankind as we know it, may even be beneficial. Warmer poles in the winter means less temperature gradient between the poles and the tropics, leading to less severe storms. They will still be there, but less severe.

There is one great benefit of increased CO2, the greening of the earth.

Thanks to this greening, accomplished with only the fertilizing effect of CO2, the earth can now keep another 2 billion people from starvation, not to mention what it does to increase wild plants and wildlife. More vegetation also helps to combat erosion.

Having said that, I am still a conservationist. Coal, oil and gas will run out at some time, and I for one would like to save some for future generations, not yet born. In addition I would like to minimize the need for mining, which can be quite destructive to the environment.

The best solution is to switch most electricity generation to Thorium molten salt nuclear power. There are many reasons why this should be done as a priority.

Here are some of them:

The case for Thorium. 1. A million year supply of Thorium available worldwide.

The case for Thorium. 2. Thorium already mined, ready to be extracted.

The case for Thorium. 3. Thorium based nuclear power produces 0.012 percent as much TRansUranium waste products as traditional nuclear power.

The case for Thorium. 4. Thorium based nuclear power will produce Plutonium-238, needed for space exploration.

The case for Thorium. 5. Thorium nuclear power is only realistic solution to power space colonies.

The case for Thorium. 6. Radioactive waste from an Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactor decays down to background radiation in 300 years compared to a million years for U-235 based reactors. A Limerick.

The case for Thorium. 7. Thorium based nuclear power is not suited for making nuclear bombs.

The case tor Thorium. 8. Produces isotopes that helps treat and maybe cure certain cancers.

The case for Thorium. 9. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors are earthquake safe, only gravity needed for safe shutdown.

The case for Thorium. 10. Molten Salt Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors cannot have a meltdown, the fuel is already molten, and it is a continuous process. No need for refueling shutdowns.

The case for Thorium. 11. Molten Salt Nuclear Reactors have a very high negative temperature coefficient leading to a safe and stable control.

The case for Thorium 13. Virtually no spent fuel problem, very little on site storage or transport.

The case for Thorium. 14. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Nuclear reactors scale beautifully from small portable generators to full size power plants.

The case for Thorium. 15. No need for evacuation zones, Liquid Fuel Thorium Reactors can be placed near urban areas.

The case for Thorium. 16. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors will work both as Base Load and Load Following power plants.

The case for Thorium. 17. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors will lessen the need for an expanded national grid.

The case for Thorium. 18. Russia has an active Thorium program.

The case for Thorium. 19. India is having an ambitious Thorium program, planning to meet 30% of its electricity demand via Thorium based reactors by 2050.

The case for Thorium 20. China is having a massive Thorium program.

The case for Thorium. 21. United States used to be the leader in Thorium usage. What happened?

The case for Thorium. 22. With a Molten Salt Reactor, accidents like the Three Mile Island disaster will not happen.

The case for Thorium. 23. With a Molten Salt Reactor, accidents like Chernobyl are impossible.

The case for Thorium. 24. With Molten Salt Reactors, a catastrophe like Fukushima cannot happen.

The case for Thorium. 25. Will produce electrical energy at about 4 cents per kWh.

The case for Thorium. 26. Can deplete most of the existing radioactive waste and nuclear weapons stockpiles.

The case for Thorium. 27. With electric cars and trucks replacing combustion engine cars, only Thorium Nuclear power is the rational solution to provide the extra electric power needed.

The case for Thorium 28. The race for space colonies is on. Only Molten Salt Thorium Nuclear reactors can fit the bill.

Published by

lenbilen

Retired engineer, graduated from Chalmers Technical University a long time ago with a degree in Technical Physics. Career in Aerospace, Analytical Chemistry, computer chip manufacturing and finally adjunct faculty at Pennsylvania State University, taught just one course in Computer Engineering, the Capstone Course.

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