The March for Science Apr 22 2017. Is it real Science or “Politically Correct Science?”

We’ re marching for Science, Yippee!

Obama is gone. We are free

to explore what is true.

No more models will do.

The Climate has changed, totally!

The Climate doomsayers are out in force are out in force again. Here is a sign

What stands out is the headline “The “Debate” is over”

So, let’s see what facts are in.

CO2 is a strong greenhouse gas, second only to water vapor in affecting the climate on earth. If CO2 were to double from pre-industrial times, which it will have done in 50 years or so, global temperatures on earth will increase about 0.9 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times, if that was the only factor affecting the greenhouse effect. This corresponds to a radiative forcing of  4.9 W/m2. But water vapor is a stronger greenhouse gas than CO2, and, this is important, they are not orthogonal as defined by chemometrics, that means, the responses from water vapor and CO2 are not independent, and they are only partly additive. Check this figure: The bottom line is the absorption of water vapor, the green line is for CO2. The area of interest is between 8 and 20 microns, where CO2 absorbs more than H20 and is at the maximum of outgoing black body emission at 0F. The CO2 concentration is on the order of 400 ppm, the average global H2O concentration at surface level is around 12,500 ppm. Since both H2O and CO2 absorb in the same area, if water vapor concentration is more than 30 times higher, the CO2 con- centration doesn’t matter, it is all absorbed by H2O, and this is the reason there is no hotspot in the equatorial troposphere. All climate models predict there must be one, so there must be something seriously wrong with all climate models.

What does IPCC do with this evidence?

IPCC ignores it, and claim the models are still correct.

This is not science, but politically correct science denial.

We are now in a nineteen year Climate “pause”, where increasing cloud cover with its strong negative feedback cancels out the potential temperature rise of rising CO2.

We are in the bog-building phase of the inter-glacial period, and the long term temperature trend is down, rising CO2 will delay the onset of the next ice age by maybe 2000 years.

The real debate has just started, and this time, let us talk real science, verified by observations, not fear-mongering  political statements.

Earth Day 2017. Real Climate Change.

It’s time for the annual Earth Day

to celebrate Lenin’s old birthday.

Less “carbon pollution”

is not the solution.

Eat less! Let it be a “Less Girth Day!

We are called to take care of ourselves, be good stewards of the Earth, and strive to leave it a better place than we entered it.

To do a good clean-up job takes a lot of energy. That is true for the whole Eco-system as well as the toilet bowl.

All our energy comes from the Sun in one way or another, except for nuclear energy. If the cosmic radiation changes, or the total energy output from the sun changes, or our polar orbit and attitude changes, all of these factors will lead to climate change. The normal state for the earth is an ice-age, interrupted by shorter warm periods. We are now at the bog-building phase of an interglacial period, which means, the next phase is another ice-age. This warm period is unique since we are experiencing rapidly increasing levels of CO2. Will that cause a rise in temperatures rendering the earth uninhabitable, or will it prolong the warm period, or – will it hasten the arrival of the next ice-age?

According to 75 out of 77 ( the origin of the “97% of all”…. )Climate Scientists that in the previous 5 years had published multiple, peer reviewed papers, paid for by their respective academic institutions, claim “The science is settled”, and we will experience a rapid climate change, rendering parts of the world uninhabitable, and a series of other calamities will befall us unless we take strong, immediate action to reduce the output of CO2 from burning fossil fuels.

But there are in excess of 30,000 other scientists that have signed up “Science is by no means settled” and CO2 is not a pollutant, but a life giving gas that is only a minor contributor to the temperature rise. Other factors are at least as important and we should concentrate on real pollution, clean air and clean water.

So, who is right?

The last ice age had lasted for over 50,000 years. The ice stretched over most of North America down to the Finger Lakes. Western Europe down to Mid Germany and extending into Western Siberia were also under heavy ice. For some reason Eastern Siberia and Western Alaska was not under heavy ice. The sea level was about 400 feet lower than today and then suddenly temperatures rose, and after a 300 to 500 years delay C02 levels rose from about 185 ppm, barely sustaining life up to about 280 ppm, after which CO2 levels stabilized and remained in a slight decline until recently.

I grew and went to school in Sweden. At that time the way Sweden exited the Ice age was taught in all schools, the signs from the ice age were everywhere. We learned the exit from the exit could be expressed with the acrostic BYAL, signifying four phases in the deglaciation. Here is the timeline (after the pictures of the Baltic)

10,000 years ago: The Baltic ice lake. Outflow through Oresund, Rapid ice melt, temperature about the same as today, CO2 280 ppm.

9000 years ago: The Yoldia Sea. As ice recedes, salt water enter for a short while until land rises to again form a lake. CO2 280 ppm. Temperatures slightly higher than today.

8000 years ago: The Ancylus lake. The outflow is first through Svea Alv, then as land rose the outflow switched to Oresund. Temperatures were higher than today. CO2 level 280 ppm. River flows at the emptying of the Ice lakes causes formation of  “giant kettles”,  an example of which is shown in the figure below:

The largest of Brobacka’s “jättegrytor”, with a diameter of 58 feet. This particular giant kettle might have been mostly formed by a stream under the ice cap while the ice was melting.

6000 years ago: Most of the inland ice has now melted, and the Oceans have risen to today’s level, so the Belts and Oresund open up and the Litorina Sea is formed. temperatures are higher than today, CO2 level 280 ppm.

3500 years ago: The Minoan warming period. Temperatures much warmer than today. Elm, Hazel, Oak and Linden grew way up in the Bothnian bay, today the northern limit is about 250 miles further South. The CO2 level 280 ppm.

2000 years ago: The Roman warming period. Great times up North. Wine grapes grew in the British Midlands, the Scandinavian population grew rapidly. CO2 level 280 ppm.

1500 years ago: Climate is turning colder, migrations out of the Nordic and Germanic countries. Harvest failures. CO2 level 280 ppm.

1200 years ago: Rapid depopulation, Bubonic Plague, failed harvests, mass starvation, climate turning much colder. CO2 level 280 ppm.

1000 years ago: Medieval warming period. Climate about one degree warmer than today. Leif Ericson sails to America. Cheese farms established on Greenland. CO2 level 280 ppm.

500 years ago: Little Ice age. Climate much colder than today. The Swedish army, including artillery crosses the Belts on ice in 1658. CO2 level 280 ppm.

Why am I going through all this? All these climate changes occurred with the CO2 level being constant at 280 ppm. The land in Northern Sweden is still recovering from the Ice age, and land is still rising out of the ocean at the rate of up to three feet per century. The temperature is still recovering from the little ice age, but is not yet back to the Medieval Warming period, much less the Roman warming period, not to mention the Minoan temperature optimum. The CO2 level has risen to 405 ppm, but CO2 is only a minor player in affecting Climate change.

As I have mentioned in a previous blog: https://lenbilen.com/2017/04/10/thanks-to-clouds-the-temperature-governor-is-alive-and-well-on-planet-earth/ clouds are the temperature regulators, and it will do us well to concentrate on the real threats to our earth on Earth Day, such as clean air (CO2 is clean air) and clean water.

I understand there is going to be a March for Science this Earth Day.

An advice to the marchers: Look up to the sky. If there are any clouds, especially cumulus clouds, look how they form, change and dissipate, and marvel that they are the regulators of the climate so we never have to worry about a thermal runaway, no matter what level of CO2. We will have another ice age though, but more CO2 will delay its onset.

When was the crucifixion of Jesus? Wednesday, Friday, Thursday? And what year?

Do we know the exact date, or even year when Jesus was crucified?  In 2016 the Western churches celebrated Easter Sunday, March 27, while the Eastern Churches celebrated Easter Sunday, May 1. In addition, most denomination commemorate Christ’s crucifixion on Friday, but some commemorate it on Wednesday. How did it get this way, so that it can be up to five weeks difference? In 2017 both the Eastern and Western branch of Christendom celebrate Easter at the same time, April 16.

This is nothing new. Until the time the temple was destroyed the Jews kept good count on when Passover occurred, but after the Jews were dispersed it was not always done in the same month, so no one could be really sure. In addition some celebrated Easter on Sunday after Passover, while others celebrated Easter three days after Passover.  So the First Council of Nicaea (A.D. 325) declared that Easter was always to be held on a Sunday, the first Sunday after the first full moon after the vernal equinox.

In the fourth century, Hillel II established a fixed calendar based on mathematical and astronomical calculations. This calendar, still in use, standardized the length of months and the addition of months over the course of a 19 year cycle, so that the lunar calendar realigns with the solar years. Adar I is added in the 3rd, 6th, 8th, 11th, 14th, 17th and 19th years of the cycle. The last cycle began in Jewish year 5758 (the year that began October 2, 1997). If you are musically inclined, you may find it helpful to remember this pattern of leap years by reference to the major scale: for each whole step there are two regular years and a leap year; for each half-step there is one regular year and a leap year. This is easier to understand when you examine the keyboard illustration below and see how it relates to the leap years above.

Keyboard illustrating pattern of leap years

Dionysius Exiguus (Dennis the Little) was called by the Pope St. John I to determine the next few dates for Easter. He did more than that. He became the inventor of Anno Domini. His Easter table was constructed in the year 525 for the years 532–626 A.D. ( Anno Domini,  or The Year of our Lord)
Jesus Age of Service
Numbers 4:3,23,30,35,43,47 (NIV) Count all the men from thirty to fifty years of age who come to serve in the work in the Tent of Meeting.
1 Chronicles 23:3  (NIV) The Levites thirty years old or more were counted, and the total number of men was thirty-eight thousand.
Luke 3:23 (NIV) Now Jesus himself was about thirty years old when he began his ministry. He was the son, so it was thought, of Joseph,
Jesus started his public ministry A.D. 30, at the age of 30.
Count the Passovers
Passover 1: Jn 2:13 When it was almost time for the Jewish Passover, Jesus went up to Jerusalem.
Passover 2: Jn 5:1 Some time later, Jesus went up to Jerusalem for a feast of the Jews.
Passover 3: Mt 15: 1Then some Pharisees and teachers of the law came to Jesus from Jerusalem and asked, 2″Why do your disciples break the tradition of the elders? They don’t wash their hands before they eat!”
We are now at A.D.33

So far so good. Joseph Caiaphas (18–36), who had married the daughter of Annas (John 18:13) Pontius Pilate (Latin: Pontius Pilatus, Greek: Πόντιος Πιλάτος) governed from  A.D. 26 until 36.

The case for crucifixion on Friday
The next day was the Sabbath
The third day
Leviticus 7:17  (NIV) Any meat of the sacrifice left over till the third day must be burned up.
Luke 9:22  (NIV) And he said, “The Son of Man must suffer many things and be rejected by the elders, chief priests and teachers of the law, and he must be killed and on the third day be raised to life.“
1 Corinthians 15:4  (NIV) that he was buried, that he was raised on the third day according to the Scriptures,

‘After three days’
Matthew 27:63  (NIV) “Sir,” they said, “we remember that while he was still alive that deceiver said, ‘After three days I will rise again.‘
Mark 8:31  (NIV) He then began to teach them that the Son of Man must suffer many things and be rejected by the elders, chief priests and teachers of the law, and that he must be killed and after three days rise again.
John 2:19 (NIV) Jesus answered them, “Destroy this temple, and I will raise it again in three days.”

No Corruption
Psalm 16:10  (KJV) For thou wilt not leave my soul in hell; neither wilt thou suffer thine Holy One to see corruption.
Psalm 49:9  (KJV) That he should still live for ever, and not see corruption.

The next day was the Sabbath
Jesus rose on the third day, Sunday
Good Friday, Long Friday, Holy Friday is an official holiday in all ‘Christian’ countries
It was observed early in the church
Year 33 is the only one with Passover on Friday
Fri 01-Apr-0033  Erev Pesach
Sat 02-Apr-0033  Pesach I
Sun 03-Apr-0033  Pesach II
Mon 04-Apr-0033  Pesach III (CH”M)
Tue 05-Apr-0033  Pesach IV (CH”M)
Wed 06-Apr-0033  Pesach V (CH”M)
Thu 07-Apr-0033  Pesach VI (CH”M)
Fri 08-Apr-0033  Pesach VII
Sat 09-Apr-0033  Pesach VIII
Sun 17-Apr-0033  Rosh Chodesh Iyyar
Mon 18-Apr-0033  Rosh Chodesh Iyyar

Which Year was it?
In the fifteenth year of the reign of Tiberius Caesar—when Pontius Pilate was governor of Judea, Herod tetrarch of Galilee, his brother Philip tetrarch of Iturea and Traconitis, and Lysanias tetrarch of Abilene— during the high priesthood of Annas and Caiaphas, the word of God came to John son of Zechariah in the desert.
Tiberius: AD12 granted supreme power by Augustus, AD14/08/19 accession, becomes Tiberius Caesar Augustus
Count the Passovers
Passover 1: Jn 2:13 When it was almost time for the Jewish Passover, Jesus went up to Jerusalem.
Passover 2: Jn 5:1 Some time later, Jesus went up to Jerusalem for a feast of the Jews.
Passover 3: Mt 15: 1Then some Pharisees and teachers of the law came to Jesus from Jerusalem and asked, 2″Why do your disciples break the tradition of the elders? They don’t wash their hands before they eat!”
That gets us to A.D. 30

Wed 03-Apr-0030  Ta’anit Bechorot
Wed 03-Apr-0030  Erev Pesach
Thu 04-Apr-0030  Pesach I
Fri 05-Apr-0030  Pesach II
Sat 06-Apr-0030  Pesach III (CH”M)
Sun 07-Apr-0030  Pesach IV (CH”M)
Mon 08-Apr-0030  Pesach V (CH”M)
Tue 09-Apr-0030  Pesach VI (CH”M)
Wed 10-Apr-0030  Pesach VII
Thu 11-Apr-0030  Pesach VIII
Fri 19-Apr-0030  Rosh Chodesh Iyyar
Sat 20-Apr-0030  Rosh Chodesh Iyyar

The case for Wednesday Crucifixion
Mt 12: 38 – 40 Then some of the Pharisees and teachers of the law said to him, “Teacher, we want to see a miraculous sign from you.”
He answered, “A wicked and adulterous generation asks for a miraculous sign! But none will be given it except the sign of the prophet Jonah.
For as Jonah was three days and three nights in the belly of a huge fish, so the Son of Man will be three days and three nights in the heart of the earth.

Mk 16:1 When the Sabbath was over, Mary Magdalene, Mary the mother of James, and Salome bought spices so that they might go to anoint Jesus’ body. (NIV)
Thursday is the feast of unleavened bread, where Passover was celebrated, Friday is a normal day, and Saturday is a normal Sabbath

Mt 28:1 After the Sabbath, at dawn on the first day of the week, Mary Magdalene and the other Mary went to look at the tomb.
The words, translated After the Sabbath are “opse de sabbaton” ‘οψε δε σαββατων’ translates literally “latter of the Sabbaths,” implying there were two Sabbaths.
At dawn, the tomb was empty.
According to the universal Hebrew Calendar for A.D. 30 Erev Pesach ( the 14:th of Nisan) was a Wednesday.
This is the official day of Crucifixion for many eastern Christians.
They also celebrate the Resurrection after sunset on Easter Eve.
This satisfies the sign of Jonah.

Problems with Wednesday Crucifixion
Luke 24:21  (NIV) but we had hoped that he was the one who was going to redeem Israel. And what is more, it is the third day since all this took place.
The prophecy in Lk 18:33 ‘On the third day he will rise again.’ would be in error.

More problems
Gen 1:5 God called the light “day,” and the darkness he called “night.” And there was evening, and there was morning—the first day.
Jonah was three days and three nights, in that order, in the fish.
The time counter in Jn 12:1 “Six days before the Passover, Jesus arrived at Bethany, where Lazarus lived, whom Jesus had raised from the dead.” would make Jesus do the triumphant entry on a Sabbath, which is improbable. It is more than a Sabbath day’s journey from Bethany to Jerusalem.
There are too many events to fit in 2 days until the Passover if the triumphant entry is on a Sunday.
The case for crucifixion on Friday
The next day was the Sabbath
Jesus rose on the third day, Sunday
Good Friday, Long Friday, Holy Friday is an official holiday in all Christian countries.
It was observed early in the church.

Problem with Friday Crucifixion.

Mt 12: 38 – 40 Then some of the Pharisees and teachers of the law said to him, “Teacher, we want to see a miraculous sign from you.”
He answered, “A wicked and adulterous generation asks for a miraculous sign! But none will be given it except the sign of the prophet Jonah.
For as Jonah was three days and three nights in the belly of a huge fish, so the Son of Man will be three days and three nights in the heart of the earth.

There are only two nights between Friday and Sunday morning.

The case for crucifixion on Thursday.
So, what day of the week was Passover A.D. 30 really?
We need to find the exact hour of the new moon that preceded Erev Nisan on A.D. 30. Times calculated here are in Jerusalem Time, which is Universal Time + 2hr 21 min. We will get astronomical new moon time (Jerusalem time).

Enter Hebrew Calendar
In the fourth century after the Temple’s destruction, when oppression and persecution threatened the continued existence of the Court, the patriarch Hillel II took an extraordinary step to preserve the unity of the Jewish people. To prevent the Jews scattered worldwide from celebrating their New Moons and holidays at different times, he made public the closely guarded secrets of Calendric calculation which had been used in the past only to check the observations and testimonies of witnesses and to determine the beginnings of the Spring system.
In accordance with this system, Hillel II formally sanctified all months in advance, and intercalated all future leap years until such time as a new, recognized High Court would again be established in Israel.
This is the permanent calendar according to which the New Moons and festivals are calculated and celebrated today by Jews all over the world.
Time is astronomical new moon (Jerusalem) time. If it falls after 12 o’clock noon a day is added to account for minimum time until a crescent can be observed.
The Hebrew calendar
The last 19 year cycle began in Jewish year 5777 (the year that began October 2, 2016).
Seven leap months are added in this 19 year cycle.
Leap months are inserted to make Passover occur early spring
Time of day of the new moon
The mew moon before Nisan 2006 was
March 29 at 12:36 p.m. which makes
1 Nisan (Rosh Chodesh Nisan)
Thursday March 30 (remember the new moon was after 12 noon )
Rosh Chodesh Nisan
A.D. 30 is 721728 days earlier, or 103104 weeks
A Lunar month calculation
Lunar calculations
Lunar Month linear formula = 29.530595200803 – M * 1.05048488E-11 mean solar days where M is the number of days since Gregorian day 1/1/1.
Doing the calculation yields the new moon for 1 Nisan A.D. 30 to be 21h 43 m Jerusalem Time, a Wednesday. Since this is past sunset, 1 Nisan is Thursday making 14:th Nisan a Wednesday.

Solar eclipse calculation
Mar 29 2006, 12h 33min Jerusalem time.
This makes 1 Nisan March 30 2006.
Nov 24 29 A.D. 11 h 37 m central total eclipse (Thursday)
Dec 24 29 A.D. 2h 16 m New moon (Saturday)
Jan 22 30 A.D. 16h 56 m New moon ( Sunday)
Feb 21 30 A.D. 7h 35 m New moon ( Tuesday)
Mar 22 30 A.D 22h 14 m New moon (Wednesday)
Apr 21 30 A.D. 12h 54 m New moon (Friday)
May 21 30 A.D. 3h 33 m Central annular ( Sunday)
The difference between these two calculations is 31 minutes, and that is mostly due to the fact that the lunar orbit duration varies, as does the solar day.
This would make Mar 22 A.D. 30 1 Nisan a Thursday according to Hillel II’s calendar rules, verified by solar eclipse calculations.
Back to the Hebrew Calendar
In the early times of Jewish history the beginning of each month was determined by direct observation of the New Moon. After witnesses testified that they had seen the new crescent and their testimony was thoroughly examined and confirmed by calculation, the beginning of the new month was sanctified and announced by the High Court (Sanhedrin) in Jerusalem. The Jewish communities were notified of the beginning of the new month (Rosh Chodesh) by the kindling of night fires atop mountains and, in later times, by messenger.
A special committee of the Sanhedrin, with its president as its chairman, had the mandate to regulate and balance the solar with the lunar years. This Calendar Council calculated the beginnings of the seasons on the basis of astronomical figures handed down from generation to generation. Whenever, after two or three years, the annual excess of 11 days had accumulated to approximately 30 days, a thirteenth month (Adar II) was inserted before Nissan in order to ensure that Nissan and Passover would occur in Spring.
This method of observation and intercalation was in use throughout the period of the Second Temple (349 B.C. – 69 A.D.) and about three centuries after its destruction, as long as there was an independent High Court.

Which brings us to Ramadan 2006
Sep 22 2006 11h 22m UT was a central annular solar eclipse.
Sunni Muslims observe local astronomical time for the new moon, so in the US and UK Ramadan started 23 Sep.
Many Muslims disagree when Ramadan should start, this is primarily because some mosques start Ramadan when their affiliate mosque in Saudi Arabia start Ramadan and others start it when the mosques in their home country starts Ramadan. The difference is because the sighting of the crescent moon is not possible at the same time in Saudi Arabia and the rest of the world. Some Muslims say they will start fasting on the 23rd Sept, other will start on the morning of the 24th Sept. Wherever you are, just assume the start date will be the date your local Islamic community representative says it will start.

Most Shiite mosques started Ramadan Sep. 24, since they depend on actual Crescent sightings.

Final correction for 1 Nisan
Since new moons were based on actual sightings in the year A.D.30 we must add one day to accommodate for the actual sighting of the crescent new moon in the evening sky.
This would make 1 Nisan a Friday and Erev Pesach, the 14:th of Nisan a Thursday.
8 Nisan A.D. 30 (Friday)
Jn 12:1 Six days before the Passover, Jesus arrived at Bethany, where Lazarus lived, whom Jesus had raised from the dead.
9 Nisan (Friday night – Saturday)
Jn 12:2 Here a dinner was given in Jesus’ honor. Martha served, while Lazarus was among those reclining at the table with him.
10 Nisan ( Sunday)
The Pascal lamb is selected
Ex 12:1 The LORD said to Moses and Aaron in Egypt, 2 “This month is to be for you the first month, the first month of your year. 3 Tell the whole community of Israel that on the tenth day of this month each man is to take a lamb for his family, one for each household….”

The donkey
Lk 19:28 After Jesus had said this, he went on ahead, going up to Jerusalem. 29As he approached Bethphage and Bethany at the hill called the Mount of Olives, he sent two of his disciples, saying to them, 30″Go to the village ahead of you, and as you enter it, you will find a colt tied there, which no one has ever ridden. Untie it and bring it here. 31If anyone asks you, ‘Why are you untying it?’ tell him, ‘The Lord needs it.’ “
Zech 9:9 Rejoice greatly, O Daughter of Zion!
Shout, Daughter of Jerusalem!
See, your King comes to you,
righteous and having salvation,
gentle and riding on a donkey,
on a colt, the foal of a donkey.
The triumphal entry
Jn 12: 12 The next day the great crowd that had come for the Feast heard that Jesus was on his way to Jerusalem. 13They took palm branches and went out to meet him, shouting,
“Hosanna!”
“Blessed is he who comes in the name of the Lord!”
“Blessed is the King of Israel!” 14Jesus found a young donkey and sat upon it, as it is written,
15″Do not be afraid, O Daughter of Zion;
see, your king is coming,
seated on a donkey’s colt.”
11 Nisan (Monday)
Mk 11:12 The next day as they were leaving Bethany, Jesus was hungry. 13 Seeing in the distance a fig tree in leaf, he went to find out if it had any fruit. When he reached it, he found nothing but leaves, because it was not the season for figs. 14 Then he said to the tree, “May no one ever eat fruit from you again.” And his disciples heard him say it.
15 On reaching Jerusalem, Jesus entered the temple area and began driving out those who were buying and selling there. He overturned the tables of the money changers and the benches of those selling doves, 16 and would not allow anyone to carry merchandise through the temple courts. 17 And as he taught them, he said, “Is it not written:
” ‘My house will be called
a house of prayer for all nations’? But you have made it ‘a den of robbers.'”

12 Nisan (Tuesday)
Mk 11: 27They arrived again in Jerusalem, and while Jesus was walking in the temple courts, the chief priests, the teachers of the law and the elders came to him. 28″By what authority are you doing these things?” they asked. “And who gave you authority to do this?”  29Jesus replied, “I will ask you one question. Answer me, and I will tell you by what authority I am doing these things. 30John’s baptism—was it from heaven, or from men? Tell me!”
31They discussed it among themselves and said, “If we say, ‘From heaven,’ he will ask, ‘Then why didn’t you believe him?’ 32But if we say, ‘From men’….” (They feared the people, for everyone held that John really was a prophet.)
33So they answered Jesus, “We don’t know.”
Jesus said, “Neither will I tell you by what authority I am doing these things.“
Jesus teaches in the temple
Jesus anointed at Bethany.
13 Nisan (Wednesday)
Mt 26:14 Then one of the Twelve—the one called Judas Iscariot—went to the chief priests 15and asked, “What are you willing to give me if I hand him over to you?” So they counted out for him thirty silver coins. 16From then on Judas watched for an opportunity to hand him over.
Lk 22: 7 Then came the day of Unleavened Bread on which the Passover lamb had to be sacrificed. 8Jesus sent Peter and John, saying, “Go and make preparations for us to eat the Passover.”  9″Where do you want us to prepare for it?” they asked.
10He replied, “As you enter the city, a man carrying a jar of water will meet you. Follow him to the house that he enters, 11and say to the owner of the house, ‘The Teacher asks: Where is the guest room, where I may eat the Passover with my disciples?’ 12He will show you a large upper room, all furnished. Make preparations there.”
13They left and found things just as Jesus had told them. So they prepared the Passover.
14 Nisan (Wednesday night)
Lev 23: 4 ” ‘These are the LORD’s appointed feasts, the sacred assemblies you are to proclaim at their appointed times: 5 The LORD’s Passover begins at twilight on the fourteenth day of the first month. 6 On the fifteenth day of that month the LORD’s Feast of Unleavened Bread begins; for seven days you must eat bread made without yeast. 7 On the first day hold a sacred assembly and do no regular work. 8 For seven days present an offering made to the LORD by fire. And on the seventh day hold a sacred assembly and do no regular work.’ “

The importance of the word Twilight (beyn ha-arbayim)
Literally BETWEEN THE TWO EVENINGS
“……In Jewish orthodoxy the time of the slaughter, between the two evenings, is specified as in the afternoon, before sunset; especially, the time approaching sunset. The Mishnah implies that any time after noon was valid for the slaying (Pesahim 5:3).
SAMARITANS, KARAITES, and SADDUCEES specify the time as AFTER SUNSET AND BEFORE DARKNESS. The latter probably designates the more archaic practice.”
The Jewish Publication Society of America in their old translation of the Hebrew from the Masoretic text, translates beyn ha-arbayim (between the two evenings) consistently(every place it is used) as “DUSK.” In their new TANAKH translation they render this phrase in EX.12:6 and 16:12 as “AT TWILIGHT.”
(from a page of the Mishnah)
Wednesday night
The Passover where Jesus institutes the new covenant memorial service
Gethsemane
Jesus betrayal and arrest

14 Nisan (Thursday)
Jesus before Caiaphas (the Sanhedrin)
Peter denies Jesus (thrice)
Judas hangs himself
Jesus before Pilate
Jesus before Herod
Back to Pilate and the people
The Crucifixion
The ceremonial Pascal lamb sacrificed in the Temple
The Death of Jesus
The temple veil rent in two from top to bottom
The Burial of Jesus
Mt 27:57 As evening approached, there came a rich man from Arimathea, named Joseph, who had himself become a disciple of Jesus. 58Going to Pilate, he asked for Jesus’ body, and Pilate ordered that it be given to him. 59Joseph took the body, wrapped it in a clean linen cloth, 60and placed it in his own new tomb that he had cut out of the rock. He rolled a big stone in front of the entrance to the tomb and went away. 61Mary Magdalene and the other Mary were sitting there opposite the tomb.
Lk 23: 50 Now there was a man named Joseph, a member of the Council, a good and upright man, 51who had not consented to their decision and action. He came from the Judean town of Arimathea and he was waiting for the kingdom of God. 52Going to Pilate, he asked for Jesus’ body. 53Then he took it down, wrapped it in linen cloth and placed it in a tomb cut in the rock, one in which no one had yet been laid. 54It was Preparation Day, and the Sabbath was about to begin.
Jn 19: 31Now it was the day of Preparation, and the next day was to be a special Sabbath.

15 Nisan (Thursday night – Friday) A “special Sabbath”.
Traditional Passover Seder is celebrated by the Jews following tradition (notice the change of day)
Mt 27: 62The next day, the one after Preparation Day, the chief priests and the Pharisees went to Pilate.
63″Sir,” they said, “we remember that while he was still alive that deceiver said, ‘After three days I will rise again.‘
64So give the order for the tomb to be made secure until the third day. Otherwise, his disciples may come and steal the body and tell the people that he has been raised from the dead. This last deception will be worse than the first.”
65″Take a guard,” Pilate answered. “Go, make the tomb as secure as you know how.”
66So they went and made the tomb secure by putting a seal on the stone and posting the guard.

17 Nisan (Saturday)
Normal Sabbath

18 Nisan (Sunday)
Mt 28:1 After the Sabbath, at dawn on the first day of the week, Mary Magdalene and the other Mary went to look at the tomb.
The words, translated After the Sabbath are “opse de sabbaton” ‘οψε δε σαββατων’ translates literally “latter of the Sabbaths.” This implies there was more than one Sabbath.
At dawn, the tomb was empty.

Conclusion
With this view, all prophesies and signs are fulfilled, (Jesus came to fulfill scripture)
The confusion inserted by the Pharisees is taken care of.
The astronomical evidence is satisfied.

And, In God’s providence Jesus could eat the passover at its proper day and also be our passover lamb the next day as the symbolic lamb was simultaneously sacrificed in the temple.

Thanks to clouds, the temperature governor is alive and well on planet earth.

In real estate appraisals the three most important factors to determine the value of a property are: Location, location, location.

Likewise, in climate modeling the three most important factors to estimate the future climate on earth are: Clouds, clouds, clouds.

CO2 is a strong greenhouse gas, second only to water vapor in affecting the climate on earth. If CO2 were to double from pre-industrial times, which it will have done in 50 years or so, global temperatures on earth will increase about 0.9 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times, if that was the only factor affecting the greenhouse effect. This corresponds to a radiative forcing of  4.9 W/m2. But water vapor is a stronger greenhouse gas than CO2, and, this is important, they are not orthogonal as defined by chemometrics, that means, the responses from water vapor and CO2 are not independent, and they are only partly additive. Check this figure: The bottom line is the absorption of water vapor, the green line is for CO2. The area of interest is between 8 and 20 microns, where CO2 absorbs more than H20 and is at the maximum of outgoing black body emission at 0F. The CO2 concentration is on the order of 400 ppm, the average global H2O concentration at surface level is around 12,500 ppm. Since both H2O and CO2 absorb in the same area, if water vapor concentration is more than 30 times higher, the CO2 con- centration doesn’t matter, it is all absorbed by H2O, and this is the reason there is no hotspot in the equatorial troposphere. All climate models predict there must be one, so there must be something seriously wrong with all climate models. Let us take a look at what factors IPCC consider in the consensus of climate models. See the following table:

This table is listing all the possible contributions to radiative forcings that IPCC chose to list. It does include the effect of aerosols on clouds, but it assumes that this is the sum total of the effect of clouds. Let us take a look at a picture of  earth from space:The first impression of earth from space is: How beautiful! Green land, brown mountains, blue oceans and absolutely white clouds! The clouds seem to reflect all incoming sunlight, and indeed, clouds can have an albedo of about 0.9, versus ocean with an albedo of about 0,07. Taking a look at the energy flows, we can see that the clouds reflect about 79 W/m-2 back into space, or about 23% of the incoming sunlight.

But that is only half the story. Clouds are even more important than that for the energy balance of the earth. If you have a house with no air conditioning, and it is hot in the summer, you close the windows and close the shades during the day to keep the hot air and the sunshine out. Then during the night you open the windows and shades to let the cooler air in. In the winter you do the opposite, during the day you may or may not open the windows dependent on the temperature, but you always let in as much sunshine as possible. Then at night you draw the shades to retain as much warmth as possible. By manipulating the windows and shades you provided the negative feedback to keep the house somewhat temperature controlled. In fact, you acted as a governor, providing the negative feedback necessary to keep the house temperature controlled.

It is the same with clouds, they cool by day and warm by night, and they come and go, so it does matter a great deal when they do appear. At the risk of oversimplification let me take a stab at 3 cloud types, clouds, clouds, clouds.

Cumulus clouds, also called “Beautiful weather clouds.”  The best example comes from Willis Eschenbach from his observations on a tropical island. The morning starts clear, and as the sun heats the moist air cumulus clouds appear around 9 a.m., and the temperature goes down!

Cumulus clouds have an albedo of about 0.9, so 90% of the incoming radiation of  341 W/m2, or up to 300 W/m2 less solar heat reaches ground at mid day.

The sun continues its path, and by mid afternoon Cumulonimbus clouds may appear. They are also called thunderstorms. In addition to have a very high albedo, they transfer a lot of heat to the upper atmosphere, rain out, keeping the ecosystem going, and cool the lower atmosphere.

The third very important type of clouds are frontal clouds. They carry energy in the form of water vapor from one area to another, in the northern temperate region typically from Southwest to Northeast, but they can also follow the jet stream, which exhibits a wave pattern.

The long and short of this oversimplification is that even a one percent change in the global average of cloud cover means more to the energy balance than all the factors listed by IPCC. In addition, cloud averages are misleading, day clouds cool, night clouds warm. So how are the climate models doing? Check this figure:

Not very encouraging. They all miss the mark. The only way to explain this discrepancy is that they all put too much emphasis on CO2 and way too little on clouds. But it helps to explain why they all miss the mark. See fig.

The clouds are the main temperature regulator in the ecosystem, providing a strong negative feedback once the temperature is favorable for cloud formation. Unless the oceans run dry we will never have to worry about a thermal runaway.

However, it can get cold, and we will get another ice age, which is the normal steady state for the earth. This will start by increasing cloud cover for whatever reason. Let me name a few:

Volcanoes: Volcanic eruptions like Pinatubo can decrease global temperatures by a degree or so for a few years. A super volcano like Yosemite erupting will trigger the next ice age.

Solar cycles: Solar cycle 24 is the most quiet in a century. A new solar minimum is to occur in the next few years and solar cycle 25 promises to be even quieter. When this happened last time it caused the little ice age, the winters were brutal indeed, and cloud covers increased, cooling the earth by at least half a degree.

The earth’s magnetic field is starting to act erratically. The magnetic north pole is speeding up and is now way up in the Arctic, near the North pole. The chart on the right shows the observed north dip poles during 1831 – 2007 as yellow squares. Modeled pole locations from 1590 to 2020 are circles progressing from blue to yellow. In addition the magnetic field is getting substantially weaker, maybe a breakup is possible having two North Poles and two South Poles. If this occurs, the protection from the cosmic radiation from the Sun will be weakened, causing more clouds and maybe trigger the next ice age.

Then there is the double star KIC 9832227. They are only 1,800 light-years away,  an eclipsing binary pair, which means as they revolve around one another, each one briefly blots out the other from the perspective of a viewer on Earth. In 2021 or 2022 we will see them merge into one causing a red supernova. When this happens, because they are so close, we may even observe gravity waves. But from a climate standpoint there will be a burst of cosmic radiation, first the gamma rays coming at the speed of light, then with a slight delay the other cosmic radiation, coming at a time of the solar minimum and an unusually weak earth magnetic field.

This is new territory, and the best we can do is to increase CO2. It will not help much, but CO2 will help rather than hurt.

In any case, we are going to a cooler earth, and it is only a matter of time until we enter another ice age. The good news is, there is still time to develop and switch to Thorium based nuclear power generation when coal and oil are exhausted, and there is unlimited quantities of limestone to degass and make cement to keep the CO2 level up.

The good news is that thanks to increasing CO2 vegetation is increasing, reducing erosion, feeding another 2 billion people without starving, and also the fauna. The benefits flow from industrialized nations to developing nations that cannot afford fertilizers but benefit from the increased CO2. In addition, photo synthesis occur more efficiently, using less water with increasing CO2.

Russian embassy trolls, a Limerick, April 1.

A message from embassy trolls.

From Russia with love, as it rolls.

AP checked: Is it true?

April fool! We fooled you!

They fooled AP’s “fake news” controls!

The automated switchboard at the Russian embassy had yesterday this recorded message:

“You have reached the Russian Embassy. Your call is very important to us.”
“To arrange a call from a Russian diplomat to your political opponent, press 1.”
” To use the services of Russian hackers, press 2.”
” To request election interference, press 3, and wait until the next election campaign”

The Associated Press reports—because, apparently, AP felt the need to check—it was able to confirm the recording was meant as a “joke.”

Yes, AP has fact checkers. They used at least nine to fact check Sarah Palin’s book, “Going rouge”, but no one was the slightest interested in fact checking first candidate, then president Obama, his words were not to be fact checked, at least not by AP.

And they do not understand what is a joke.

An updated version of the parable of the good Samaritan.

 “After having lost his job when the company he worked for closed down the factory and moved its production to China, an American worker was going down I95 from New York State to North Carolina, but in Baltimore he was attacked by illegal aliens. They took his car, stripped him of his clothes, beat him and went away, leaving him half dead. A Democrat happened to be driving down the same road, and when he saw the man, he speeded up for he was on the way to the airport to jet away to an exotic island to attend yet another Climate Conference. So too, a Republican, when he came to the place and saw him, drove by, realizing he was already late for his tee-off time. But an Alaskan, Sarah Palin,  as she traveled, came where the man was; and when she saw him, she took pity on him. She went to him and bandaged his wounds, using what she had in the first aid kit in the glove compartment. Then she put the man in her pick-up truck, brought him to an inn and took care of him. The next day she took out her check-book and gave an endorsed check to the innkeeper, Donald Trump. ‘Look after the American worker,’ she said, ‘and when I return, after my Alaskan moose hunt, I will give you some of the moose-meat.’ Looking at the check, Donald Trump said: “Thank you, you have alerted me to the plight of the American worker. I will take it from here and Make America Great Again. No need to reimburse me, but keep me informed of other Americans in need”.

 “Which of these four do you think was a neighbor to the man who fell into the hands of robbers?”

To be fair, I got the idea from the website sarahpalin.com, which quoted  the former Archbishop of Canterbury.

Via The Daily Mail:

The former Archbishop of Canterbury has described Donald Trump as a ‘Good Samaritan’ for the American people.

Lord Carey said the US President had offered the country ‘a voice’ and said he had ‘deep sympathies’ with the forces that propelled him to victory last year.

The Good Samaritan is a Parable in which a man is beaten by robbers and then ignored by a priest and a Levite until being helped by a Samaritan.

Lord Carey said Mr Trump, just like the Samaritan, was offering Americans more than just words.

He said: ‘Help is not merely kind words. It is the promise of ongoing support.’