Two Statistical Curiosities That Allowed Biden To Pull Ahead In PA:
A brief note. I’ve been asked to examine the Pennsylvania votes. That work is ongoing. Update See below for a serious critique of Benford’s law.
I’m showing here (with permission) the one analysis I found most curious.
This is official county-level timed voting data that started at 2020-11-04 11:00:00, a day after the election, to 2020-11-07 11:29:00 which is Saturday night. That is, these are all late vote counts. They start, county by county, where the vote left off on election night.
This is a picture of the running totals by the time the votes were added, summed across all counties, during those time periods. They do not start at 0, but at the totals given after election night.
The early gains for Biden are from, mainly, Philadelphia, Allegheny, Montgomery, Chester and Berks counties. A simple plot
shows the size of vote additions for both candidates, when new vote totals (greater than 0) were added by county (and not all counties added votes after election day).
All goes well for Trump until 2020-11-04 21:15:00 when he loses just under 10,000 votes, but curiously from three different counties simultaneously: -1,063 Allegheny; -2,972 Bucks; -7,135 Chester. Biden never lost any votes (at least, in this late voting).
Understand that this does not mean the decreases happened at this time, but that they were recorded in the official data as happening at that time. And the same is true for our next observation.
Biden’s next curiosity was the big increase of 27,396 votes at 2020-11-06 08:53:00 over one consecutive reporting period. This bump is just like the blue-red F-memes you have seen: this only seems more spread out because of the finer time scale used.
These two curiosities account for a 37,263 vote swing for Biden. Biden’s total, as of the end of this data, was 3,344,528, and Trump’s 3,310,326. Biden therefore “won”, in this dataset anyway, by 34,202 votes.
Biden could not have pulled ahead without the curiosities noted above.
There is more to come. Stick around.
Update Benford’s law is only useful in uncovering multiple and on-going instances of cheating. As in somebody consistently cooking financial books. As I showed above, assuming the curiosities are cheats, it only took two instances to tip the balance. Benford’s law will never pick this up: never.
I’m skeptical of what I’m seeing in other analyses, because if somebody turns something up with Benford, it implies that many, many vote totals were tampered with, which increases the possibilities of getting caught. And you don’t need to tamper with many. Only a few.
This is a map of the extent to which Dominion voting machines software is presently used. When votes are tallied it produces results that are not credible according to statistical science.
Joe Biden’s votes violate Benford’s Law, President Trump’s do not.
Benford’s law or the first-digit law, is used to check if a set of numbers are naturally occurring or manually fabricated. It has been applied to detect the voting frauds in Iranian 2009 election and various other applications including forensic investigations.
Benford’s Law, also called the Newcomb–Benford law, the law of anomalous numbers, or the first-digit law, is an observation about the frequency distribution of leading digits in many real-life sets of numerical data. The law states that in many naturally occurring collections of numbers, the leading digit is likely to be small. For example, in sets that obey the law, the number 1 appears as the leading significant digit about 30% of the time, while 9 appears as the leading significant digit less than 5% of the time. If the digits were distributed uniformly, they would each occur about 11.1% of the time. Benford’s law also makes predictions about the distribution of second digits, third digits, digit combinations, and so on.
Plots of the first digits of counts in various precincts and wards for selected counties/cities.
This is Pittsburgh.
But even cities where we know the outcome, the numbers have been manipulated such as
When this fraud is corrected the electoral map will look quite different, and may even swing a few house and senate votes.
I may be wrong on this buggy. The campaigner may not be Amish after all. He may be an Old Order Mennonite. That Order is even more conservative than the Amish. But they used to have one thing in common. They did not mingle with the English, and they did not participate in politics, and they did not vote. You may have seen cute pictures like this, thinking they still live like in the 18th century.
Nothing could be further from the truth. It is true, they didn’t use to vote. But in the 2000 election they started voting, and they voted pro life. They were always law abiding, and were allowed to keep their one room school houses with 8 year education, were allowed to have their own pooled medical services, and maintained their religious exemption from military service and social security. Do they really shun electricity? The picture below shows a recently built Amish homestead with the telltale clothesline, but also a small wind turbine and four solar panels to provide
electricity. Contrary to popular opinion the Amish do not shun electricity, they just want to be left unconnected to the “English”, in other words, live off the grid. Their desire to be independent force them to be resourceful and innovative, since they also follow the law of the land whenever possible. So it was, when the farms were mandated to refrigerate the milk before pickup they installed electric coolers. The electricity was generated by diesel generators, so bingo, they could get electricity for their workshops as well, and turn from primitive hand work to fully modern wood workshops, I know, they provided a first class kitchen for our home in Intercourse. They had a problem, federal law mandated headlights on their buggies to be street legal. The propane lights with gas stockings burned well, but were too fragile to last the bumpy buggy rides so they installed car headlights running on car batteries. They had to be charged often, and it became quite expensive, so the Amish in 2003 made the first commercially available LED headlights for their buggies, thereby extending battery life more than ten–fold for a marine deep-charge lead-acid battery, from six hours to 100 hours.
Even at 120 dollars a piece it made economic sense. How do you charge batteries? This is where the solar panels come in, they are used to charge the batteries. When the sun doesn’t shine the wind may blow, a reasonable backup. Now they have 12 volt electric power. The next step was to wire the house and install 12 V LED lights and provide 12 volt DC or 24 volt AC outlets for small appliances. The lights are great, but many appliances are still run the hard way, diesel engines providing compressed air, which run their wells with jet-pumps and in their hand mixers they take out the motor and replace with a compressed air motor. The LED lights beat kerosene lamps any day for efficiency, and even a compressed air driven refrigerator is much more efficient than a kerosene refrigerator.
So if the grid goes down for an extended period of time, who is better off? The Amish are far ahead of us in preparation for catastrophes.
And the Amish do get together and fellowship for any reason, but mostly for their Sunday services, which are held in the upper room of their workshops, or in the kitchen for the women and the basement for the men. The horse-drawn pew-mobile is in the picture above, to the right. This is a tell-tale sign who hosts the service next time.
The term came into being in a publication, which was published in the Swedish evening tabloid Expressen on March 3, 1976. It was written in a deliberate style break, from children’s literature to legalese, and I have tried to do a close translation: https://lenbilen.com/2012/01/24/pomperipossa-in-monismania/
Read it! It tells of how the famous Swedish author, Astrid Lindgren got a 102% tax on her income. It made such a stink that the Swedish Social Democrats, who had been ruling Sweden seemingly forever lost the upcoming election, and got replaced by a basically progressive liberal coalition.
What is then the proposed Warrenesque wealth tax? In short it is a 2% tax on all household wealth over 50 million, 3% on over a billion. Elizabeth Warren herself is relatively poor, her wealth is only about 10 million, but Nancy Pelosi is worth around 100 million, so she will pay. The tax is similar to the so called Zakat in Sharia law which is 2.5% over a poverty minimum and is one of the five pillars in Islam. It is divided into eight parts. (One eighth is to support militant Jihad, but I digress)
The wealth tax is estimated to raise 2.5 trillion over ten years, far short of the estimated 50 trillion that medicare for all will cost over the same time period.
Sweden used to have a wealth tax, but so many rich people emigrated that it was removed and replaced with an ever increasing value added tax. It is now 25%.
Yes, that and a higher income tax just may be enough
Twenty-two years a girl was born with undeveloped optical nerves and mild cerebral palsy. She was not expected to live more than at most one year. But God had other plans for her. At age two she began to sing. Her love for singing praises to God has never ceased. And so, in God’s providence she was chosen to sing at the 2017 inauguration interfaith prayer service. And sing she did! Her name is Marlana VanHoose, a little girl, but with a voice.
Meanwhile, the media was busy tracking the protest rallies all around Washington that day. I watched all day and never saw it.
How did the audience that was privileged to watch react? It is worth to listen to it a second time, this time around watching the reaction of the public in attendance, notably Melania Trumps reaction.
After the song Melania led the standing ovation to acknowledge God’s grace, not only for the song, but for the whole day and for the whole presidency.
This is what give us evangelicals hope. She not only sang it, she also sang the third and fourth verses, so often omitted in public settings, especially in interfaith services. Why is that so important?
Let us look at the history of “O store Gud”, and how it came to be the most favored Hymn of at least three presidents before Donald Trump!
Clouds have always been my fascination. They come and go, form and disappear, cool by day and warm by night. But most impressive of all are thunderstorms, forming when the temperature and humidity are high, transport a lot of water vapor to higher elevations, there condensing as rain or ice, coming down, cooling and watering the earth. Clouds and thunderstorms are the thermostat of the earth. Without it the earth would respond like climate models, predicting a sharp temperature rise as carbon dioxide levels increase. The models are all flawed, since they predict a hot spot in the troposphere over the equator, but there is none. The thunderstorms in the tropical doldrums take care of that. “Settled science” instead has settled on ignoring the lack of the hot spot, for to acknowledge it would make the global warming claim invalid.
I thank God for providing us with a thermostat that protects the earth from overheating, and especially for thunderstorms!
Such was the case in July 1885, when Carl Boberg, a 26 year young pastor of a small congregation of the Swedish Missionary society was the honored guest of the ladies’ auxiliary annual picnic, held in a meadow near Mönsteråsviken, (a bay of the Baltic Sea in southeastern Sweden). The day was perfect, the sky was clear, pleasant temperatures, the cows were grazing on the meadow, the birds were singing, in short, a pastoral idyll. Then it happened. In a few short minutes thunderclouds appeared out of nothing. There was no time to go home, so they all sought shelter in a barn close by. The rain came down hard, and lightning struck a nearby tree. Then as suddenly as it started the rain stopped and all was calm. In Sweden it turns much cooler after a thunderstorm, and the birds sing like they got a new lease on life.
They all went home, and the young pastor pondered the events of the day. He
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Koltrast, Turdus merula
Uppland
heard the Coalthrush singing its melodic, beautiful drill and in a distance he heard the church bells ringing from Kronobäck’s church. The bay was calm like a mirror, and inspired he started penning the song “O store Gud”. Here is the first verse:
O Lord my God, When I in awesome wonder, Consider all the works Thy Hands have made; I see the stars, I hear the mighty thunder, Thy power throughout the universe displayed.
Refrain: Then sings my soul, My Savior God, to Thee, How great Thou art, How great Thou art. Then sings my soul, My Savior God, to Thee, How great Thou art, How great Thou art!
He continued to write and write of all the mighty works that God has made and what He has given us through His word, and continued long into the night. Before going to bed he had penned over twenty verses. The next Sunday he wove the poem into his sermon. They all loved it, but that was about it. Slowly the word got around the poem was pretty good, after much editing down 9 verses were published in the local newspaper Mönsteråstidningen in 1886. Carl Boberg didn’t make any efforts to publish it further, and was surprised when he heard it sung a few years later to a Swedish folk melody (in 3/4 tempo). This was then published in the periodical “Sanningsvittnet” (witness of the truth) in 1891.
It was translated into German by an Estonian, Manfred von Glehn. Five years later it was translated into Russian by Ivan S. Prokanoff, the Martin Luther of modern Russia. It was published in a book with the title “Cymbals”.
Later, while in the Carpathian Mountains of what is now Western Ukraine the English Missionary couple Hine heard the song sung in Russian, this time as a wandering song in march tempo. He got impressed by God’s great works in the Polish mountains, and as Stuart Hine heard the people singing it on their way to church he penned a translation. This become the second verse:
When through the woods, and forest glades I wander, And hear the birds sing sweetly in the trees. When I look down, from lofty mountain grandeur And see the brook, and feel the gentle breeze.
Refrain
From now on the English version is different than the Swedish original. This is the origin of the third verse: It was typical of the Hines to ask if there were any Christians in the villages they visited. In one case, they found out that the only Christians that their host knew about were a man named Dmitri and his wife Lyudmila. Dmitri’s wife knew how to read — evidently a fairly rare thing at that time and in that place. She taught herself how to read because a Russian soldier had left a Bible behind several years earlier, and she started slowly learning by reading that Bible. When the Hines arrived in the village and approached Dmitri’s house, they heard a strange and wonderful sound: Dmitri’s wife was reading from the gospel of John about the crucifixion of Christ to a houseful of guests, and those visitors were in the very act of repenting. In Ukraine (as I know first hand!), this act of repenting is done very much out loud. So the Hines heard people calling out to God, saying how unbelievable it was that Christ would die for their own sins, and praising Him for His love and mercy. They just couldn’t barge in and disrupt this obvious work of the Holy Spirit, so they stayed outside and listened. Stuart wrote down the phrases he heard the Repenters use, and (even though this was all in Russian), it became the third verse that we know today: And when I think, that God, His Son not sparing; Sent Him to die, I scarce can take it in; That on the Cross, my burden gladly bearing, He bled and died to take away my sin.
Refrain
The second world war broke out, and the Hines were forced to return back to England, but they continued their ministry. The fourth verse was was added by Stuart Hine after the Second World War. His concern for the exiled Polish community in Britain, who were anxious to return home, provided part of the inspiration for Hine’s final verse. Hine and David Griffiths visited a camp in Sussex, England, in 1948 where displaced Russians were being held, but where only two were professing Christians. The testimony of one of these refugees and his anticipation of the second coming of Christ inspired Hine to write the fourth stanza of his English version of the hymn. According to Ireland: One man to whom they were ministering told them an amazing story: he had been separated from his wife at the very end of the war, and had not seen her since. At the time they were separated, his wife was a Christian, but he was not, but he had since been converted. His deep desire was to find his wife so they could at last share their faith together. But he told the Hines that he did not think he would ever see his wife on earth again. Instead he was longing for the day when they would meet in heaven, and could share in the Life Eternal there. These words again inspired Hine, and they became the basis for his fourth and final verse to ‘How Great Thou Art’:
When Christ shall come, with shout of acclamation, And take me home, what joy shall fill my heart. Then I shall bow, in humble adoration, And then proclaim: “My God, how great Thou art!”
Refrain
The complete song was soon published, not in England but in the Soviet Union (in English). The famous Gospel singer George Beverly Shea got hold of it, liked it a lot, but he wanted to change two words in the first verse: Instead of works, he wanted to use worlds, and instead of mighty he wanted to use rolling. Very reluctantly Stuart Hine agreed, but only for use in the Billy Graham Crusades. It was first sung in Canada in 1955. It became so popular that in Billy Graham’s 1956 New York Crusade it was sung at all 99 events, and from there the song spread out through all the world, even back in Sweden where the new version became the popular one. One of the visitors to this Crusade was the little boy Donald Trump, who went with his Father and Mother and Brother (and Sisters?) to listen. God’s word never returns void.
The Federal Government maintains a list of its citizens, the state governments don’t. Judicial watch has made an investigation of the registered voters and found that eleven counties had more voters registered than the number of eligible voters. Here is a list of them:
County Vote Vote % eligible Clinton/
—————— Clinton Trump registered Trump
Los Angeles 1,893,770 620,285 144 3.05
San Diego 567,243 386,807 138 1.47
San Francisco 312,445 34,493 114 9.06
San Mateo 192,035 47,627 111 4.03
Solano 94,622 48,712 111 1.94
Yolo 34,460 13,178 110 2.61
Santa Cruz 85,185 20,158 109 4.23
Monterey 64,733 26,378 104 2.45
Stanislaus 73,939 72,960 102 1.01
Imperial 23,887 9,318 102 2.56
Lassen 2,224 7,574 102 0.29
11 Co. Total 3,344,543 1,287,490 2.60
Rest of Calif 2,514,062 1,391,229 1.81
All Calif. 5,858,605 2,678,719 2.19
This compilation is remarkable in so many ways.
California has 3.4 million resident aliens (green card holders and special visas). They are not eligible to vote. They also have about 3 million illegal aliens (obviously not eligible to vote)
California has motor voter registration. They issue driver’s licenses to, not only resident aliens but also to illegal aliens. All they have to do to be registered to vote is to check a box indicating they are eligible. No check for its validity is performed.
Los Angeles County is the capital of illegal aliens, so it comes as no surprise that since they now have driver’s licenses and thereby by extension are made eligible to vote, the ratio of 1.44 between registered voters and lawfully eligible voters comes as no surprise.
Silicon valley has more resident aliens than other areas of California, so it is no surprise they have registered voters exceeding eligible voters.
There is one small county located way up in North East California, Lassen County which voted heavily for Trump. It has only two major employers, two state prisons and one federal prison. Could Lassen County have registered ineligible prisoners?
This calls for a thorough investigation if the integrity of voting means anything.
The Russians are good hackers. They hack and sell passwords, hack and demand ransom to restore computers, hack for industrial and military espionage, I could go on. They have been doing this since the internet started. The lower level hacking, such as Podesta’s e-mails, is usually done at the cottage industry level, the more sophisticated espionage is controlled centrally.
But Russia is not the only hacker. China is much more prolific, at least as sophisticated, and has the goods on all U.S. citizens (more than 20 million) with top secret or secret clearance, and all government employees.
There are two types of corporations in the U.S. Those that have been hacked, and those that don’t know yet they have been hacked.
Other actors are North Korea, Iran, Nigeria, and many US allies.
Are we innocent? Hardly. Here is a snapshot of one day in the world of cyber attacks
When all these hackings were starting the Bush Administration did very little to combat it. The Obama administration did even less as hackings grew in numbers and level of sophistication. By doing nothing, he gave away trillions of dollars worth of intellectual property, and jeopardized our security.
Now, after losing the election Obama wakes up and expels some some Russian diplomats from two compounds that have been doing mostly industrial and military espionage since the 70’s.
Way to go, Obama. First you used U.S. taxpayer money to try to prevent the re-election of Israel prime minister Benyamin Netanyahu. Netanyahu won in a landslide.
Then you went to London and said “If the U.K. voted to leave the E.U, Britain would be left back in the queue”. Brexit won convincingly.
You campaigned hard for Hillary Clinton and ridiculed Trump as much as you could. Trump won in an electoral landslide.
Now you think you have found the culprit: Putin’s Russia.
At least Trump is forming a group to report within 90 days how to handle cyber security in his administration and for the whole country. It won’t be easy or cheap, but it must be done to preserve freedom.
First they lost the election by concentrating on the wrong states.
Then they lost the recount. Trump gained more votes in Wisconsin than Hillary, and in Michigan they stopped the recount after they found massive voting fraud in Detroit. In Pennsylvania they refused to recount, did not want to open up a can of worms in Philadelphia.
Then they tried to sway the electoral college. Hillary had 5 Faithless Electors, compared to Trump’s 2. It can not get more embarrassing than that.
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Len Bilén's blog, a blog about faith, politics and the environment. 