Pennsylvania Certified the 2020 vote, fraud and all. The numbers do not add up.

 

Living in Pennsylvania I take a keen interest in checking the voter result. Somebody took a screenshot of the vote counting in Lancaster Co.

This was partial results. How did it stack up for the whole state? The results are in and certified by none other than Governor Wolf, so these must be true results:

So what were the results? These are the official numbers from Sidney Powell

If all of these counted ballots count we get the following result:

Joseph R. Biden 3,456,008, Donald J. Trump: 3,465,578.

But the official tally was as Pennsylvania Secretary of State Kathy Boockvar made the final count official three weeks after the Nov. 3 election: Biden received 3,458,229 votes, 80,555 more than President Donald Trump’s 3,377,674 votes. Biden won 50.01% of the vote to 48.8% for Trump.

However it is impossible to have more legal mail-in ballots than was officially requested. The mail-in votes for Trump was 22.97% of the total, so we should at least take away 258,813 votes away from President Trump and the remaining overcount of 868,127 votes away from Joe Biden.

This would give a net vote count for President Trump of 3,118,861 votes and a net count for Joseph R Biden of 2,590,102 votes

In other words: President Donald J. Trump won Pennsylvania by 528,759 votes!

Please recount all mail-in ballots and explain what happened!

And while you are at it, recount by hand

7th Congressional District

Votes: D Susan Wild 195,713 51.9%

R Lisa Scheller 181,569 48.1%

8th Congressional District

Votes: D Matt Cartwright 178,407 51.8%

R Jim Bognet 166,201 48.2%

17th Congressional District1

Votes: D Conor Lamb 222,242 51.1%

R Sean Parnell 212,279 48.9%

They could all flip when the mail-in overcount is removed!

 

 

Two Statistical Curiosities That Allowed Biden To Pull Ahead In PA: A Limerick and more.

The votes that was tallied in Philly

were not added up willy-nilly.

For the fraud is state-wide

leaving no place to hide.

It’s treason; deny it is silly.

Two Statistical Curiosities That Allowed Biden To Pull Ahead In PA:

A brief note. I’ve been asked to examine the Pennsylvania votes. That work is ongoing. Update See below for a serious critique of Benford’s law.

I’m showing here (with permission) the one analysis I found most curious.

This is official county-level timed voting data that started at 2020-11-04 11:00:00, a day after the election, to 2020-11-07 11:29:00 which is Saturday night. That is, these are all late vote counts. They start, county by county, where the vote left off on election night.

This is a picture of the running totals by the time the votes were added, summed across all counties, during those time periods. They do not start at 0, but at the totals given after election night.

The early gains for Biden are from, mainly, Philadelphia, Allegheny, Montgomery, Chester and Berks counties. A simple plot

shows the size of vote additions for both candidates, when new vote totals (greater than 0) were added by county (and not all counties added votes after election day).

All goes well for Trump until 2020-11-04 21:15:00 when he loses just under 10,000 votes, but curiously from three different counties simultaneously: -1,063 Allegheny; -2,972 Bucks; -7,135 Chester. Biden never lost any votes (at least, in this late voting).

Understand that this does not mean the decreases happened at this time, but that they were recorded in the official data as happening at that time. And the same is true for our next observation.

Biden’s next curiosity was the big increase of 27,396 votes at 2020-11-06 08:53:00 over one consecutive reporting period. This bump is just like the blue-red F-memes you have seen: this only seems more spread out because of the finer time scale used.

These two curiosities account for a 37,263 vote swing for Biden. Biden’s total, as of the end of this data, was 3,344,528, and Trump’s 3,310,326. Biden therefore “won”, in this dataset anyway, by 34,202 votes.

Biden could not have pulled ahead without the curiosities noted above.

There is more to come. Stick around.

Update Benford’s law is only useful in uncovering multiple and on-going instances of cheating. As in somebody consistently cooking financial books. As I showed above, assuming the curiosities are cheats, it only took two instances to tip the balance. Benford’s law will never pick this up: never.

I’m skeptical of what I’m seeing in other analyses, because if somebody turns something up with Benford, it implies that many, many vote totals were tampered with, which increases the possibilities of getting caught. And you don’t need to tamper with many. Only a few.

 

Three approaches to the Corona virus pandemic; Pennsylvania, Sweden, Florida.

The COVID-19 pandemic is changing the world in ways we do not fully understand and is beyond our control, yet all are trying.

The state of Pennsylvania implemented a rigorous shutdown, but left the nursing home people unprotected. Early on in Lancaster County 75% of the deaths were from nursing homes, and the majority of deaths came from care facilities. In most of the state things were not that bad. In Centre county the two first cases were my pastor, who has been to Washington State, and my son’s pastor, who had been in Lousiana, both visiting conferences. Pennsylvania has now partially opened up, and the statistics looks like this:

After an initial peak, the case rate were dropping until June 20, and is now rising. (Do the protests have anything to do with the rise?)

The death rate is not rising, and has so far totaled 7,183 with  about 16 new cases a day, and the rate is halved every month or so, which means that the total deaths would be about 8 to ten thousand. Pennsylvania has a population of 12.8 million, so the death rate from corona virus in Pennsylvania is about 0.07%. Total cases so far is about 110,000 and the sum total of cases should be no more than 256,000 or no more than 2% of the population would get the corona virus.

Sweden, a country of 10 million people took a different approach. They did not close the schools, did not close shops and restaurants. They encouraged personal hygiene, social distancing, and wearing masks where social distancing was not possible. They closed sports and music events and encouraged remote work wherever practical. What were the results? The charts are enlightening:

The daily case rate peaked around June 28 and is now down by more than half. Total cases for Sweden is so far 79,000, and will probably, once this pandemic is over, total less than 100,000 or about 1%

Daily deaths are even more interesting. So far 5,700 have died from this disease. The death rate is now near zero, so the total number of deaths will be less than 6,000, or 0,06% of the population.

As we can see from the charts, Sweden is now very close to herd immunity.

The third case is Florida, a state of 21.5 million people. They did have a very small initial wave of cases, but the big rise started to appear at peak summer season. The charts tell a lot:

 

So far, the number of cases are 415,000, and following Sweden more than half of the cases occurred before the peak, which occurred on July 15, the total number of cases should be no more than 700,000 or about 3.25%

The total number of deaths so far total about 5,800 or about 0.027 percent of the population. About one third of the deaths occur before the peak, so the total deaths should be between 17,000 and 20,000 and then herd immunity is achieved. this corresponds to a total death rate of 0.08%

All three approaches yielded the same result, total case rate is between 1 and 3,25%, with Sweden, doing the least government interference faring the best.

The total death rates  are between 0,06% and 0,08%, and when the corona virus pandemic has run its course, herd immunity is achieved.