The ice keeps growing and growing: The freezing point of ice is a constant, so it must be getting colder. Are we looking at the beginning of a new “little ice age”?
Here are the amounts of sea-ice for 2014, 2013 and 2012 in millions of square kilometers.
The French Antarctic Dumont d’Urville Station, on the Antarctic coast due South of Melbourne, Australia, made famous by the award-winning documentary, “The March of the Penguins” has experienced its coldest June ever.
According to a press release from Meteo France, during June this year the average temperature was -22.4c (-8.3F), 6.6c (11.9F) lower than normal. This is the coldest June ever recorded at the station, and almost the coldest monthly average ever – only September 1953 was colder, with a recorded average temperature of -23.5c (-10.3F).
June this year also broke the June daily minimum temperature record, with a new record low of -34.9c (-30.8F).
Other unusual features of the June temperature record are an unusual excess of sunlight hours (11.8 hours rather than the normal 7.4 hours), and unusually light wind conditions. This also lead to a new record for ice anomaly, the ice extent was nearly the size of Greenland larger than normal.
The nice things about ice is that it freezes at a certain temperature, and it doesn’t change unless salinity or CO2 levels change. If CO2 levels increase it means an ever so slightly more acidic ocean which would lower the freezing temperature making it harder to freeze, but otherwise the freezing of ice occurs at the same temperature year after year and cannot be adjusted or “homogenized”. So when the icecap has grown the size of Greenland above its 30 year average in the Antarctic this must come as an inconvenient truth for the warmists.
Without further comment let us take a look at the official data:
And the 35 year anomaly:
There has been no main street media report about this to my knowledge.
If there had been a loss of ice in Antarctica the size of Greenland do you think the media would have been silent?
Eleven signs of cooling. A new little Ice Age coming? (Updated 6/6/2015)
Sometimes regional newspapers in faraway countries can produce articles that are newsworthy all over the world. Such is the case with the major Danish newspaper “Jyllandsposten” which acquired worldwide fame for publishing the “Muhammad Cartoons.” There had been a Muslim honor killing, and the case was publicized incessantly by the paper. The public was outraged, and when the case went to court the Danish court, known for Scandinavian leniency broke with tradition and gave all six defendants hard sentences, including the taxi driver, who just drove the getaway car. This outraged the Muslim community, so they threatened the reporters with reprisals. The editorial board decided they would not be intimidated, so they decided to run a competition “Who could make the best Muhammad cartoon”. So far more than 200 people has been killed because of the cartoons from adherents to “the religion of peace”
Aug 8 2013 Jyllandsposten posted a two page article “The behavior of the sun can trigger a new “Little Ice age”.
They should know. During the last little ice age the Swedes, with their whole army went over of the Great Belt on ice and sacked Copenhagen. The year was 1648.
Nowadays the Great Belt is rarely even frozen over.
Jyllandspostens argument is that we are headed for a new solar minimum of either the Daulton or the Marauder minimum, both leading to significantly colder winters, more storms, and diminished harvests. Above is their front page:
The Paper Warns: “Globe May Be On Path To Little Ice Age…Much Colder Winters…Dramatic Consequences”!
Could they possibly be right? Some say that global warming “deniers” are the scum of the earth worthy of extinction. Obama suggests we belong to the “flat earth society.” In Jyllandspostens view that is beside the point. They were not cowed by the Muhammad cartoons, neither will they be silenced on exposing the fallacies of the religion of global warming.
Since the main street media never report on these facts I have put together 11 reasons why I believe we are entering a new ice age.
#1. It all depends on the sun. The sunspots and its accompanied solar activity goes in cycles. When there are lots of sunspots the sun is more active than when there are few. We are now at a solar maximum and this is the lowest maximum in over a hundred years and less than half of the most recent solar cycles. The next solar cycle is projected to be almost nonexistent. The last time this happened was during the little ice age.
It is to be noted that the actual behavior of the sun is even quieter than predicted. This means colder winters for the next 33+ years.
#2. A new record time for no major hurricanes hitting the U.S. mainland is set every day.
Hurricane Wilma, the last major hurricane to strike the United States, made landfall on Oct. 24, 2005.
#3. The number of tornadoes are still way below average in spite of early May 2015 activity.
#4. The arctic temperature over 80 degree latitude was below average every day since from May through August in 2013. This was unprecedented since measurements started. This pattern is repeated in 2014.
{Source Danish Meteorological Institute)
2014 the pattern continues with warmer winter temperatures due to more snowfall than normal and colder summer temperatures due to the extra melting of last years snow.
And again in 2015 the switch from a 5F warmer winter to a cooler spring summer happened early May.
#5 Arctic ice content for 2013 was at a 6 year high. Ice is a lagging indicator. If the ice is increasing, temperature has been decreasing for some time. This year will have a higher minimum since there is much more multi-year ice northwest of Greenland.
#6. Arctic melt is larger than the 30 year average, but that is due to soot from China, not higher temperatures.
China consumes more than 45% of all the coal burned in the world every year. It is mostly low grade lignite. Even with scrubbers, which are often down for “service” (it costs money to operate scrubbers) there is substantial soot pollution. This soot cloud hangs in the air, and some of it makes its way up to the arctic, carried on by the prevailing westerly winds. Note the soot in the bottom of the ice-lake in figure at right.
#7. Last two years the Antarctic ice cover hit consecutive record highs since measurements started.
#8. Antarctic ice is running well above average, setting another record in 2013, and is on its way for another record in 2014. The picture above shows we are setting a new all time record for ice anomaly with more than 2 million square kilometer ice than normal for this time of the year. This ice is around the 60th latitude which means the change in albedo from ocean to ice is highly cooling leading to even more ice growth.
The picture below shows an accelerating trend to greater ice anomaly.
#9. The continental U.S. temperature records are misleading. Many weather stations are located near airport runways. This is a proper location to give runway information to the pilots but is not well suited for climatological reporting since they report the airport runway microclimate, not true overall conditions. This tends to skew temperature data. If airport data is taken out of the reporting, temperatures now are well below the records set mostly in the early 1900’s. A snapshot from the last week of July:
Even with the suspect temperature measurements there has been no significant global temperature increase the last 18 years 6 months:
#10. Northern Hemisphere snow cover is increasing.
#11. Sandy. Contrary to popular reporting of the unprecedented storm surge during hurricane Sandy there has been two hurricanes with higher storm surges. They both occurred in the 1600’s, during the little ice age and can be explained by a late hurricane coming up the East coast being drawn inland by an early outbreak of cold arctic air.
The jury is out. Who are the scum of the earth, members of the “flat earth society?” Who looks at the facts and who is ideologically motivated.
On a brighter note, it may be time to return to good, old-fashioned romance
And one thing more. Increasing CO2 levels will delay the onset of the next ice age. In the meantime we can enjoy the fruits of increased CO2 levels: Greater harvests, a greener earth, less temperature differences between the equator and the poles, less hurricanes, fewer tornadoes, less large storms, and a more resilient nature feeding more animals and enabling more biodiversity. The colder weather will finally catch up with us, and that will mean widespread famine unless CO2 is increased substantially.
Why am I not worried about the greenhouse effect from CO2?
If CO2 is doubled, global temperatures will increase less than 2 degree F if no gain is in the system. Water vapor increases with about 4% per degree F temperature rise, and so a gain is assumed. The models predict a hotspot in the troposphere over the tropics because of CO2 coupled with water vapor. No hotspot has been found. In fact there is a barely perceptible cold spot where the hotspot was expected. This is because of the great thermostat of the earth called thunderstorms. When the air is hot and humid enough thunderstorms form and this mechanism controls tropical temperatures to be rarely above 95 degrees F. In desert regions it can be substantially hotter, like in northern India, where it is routinely 115 degree F until the monsoons start, when the thunderstorms keep temperatures below 100.
No such control mechanism exists on the cool side. It will get as cold as the solar output dictates, and the coming cooling is inevitable. It will delay the onset of the new little ice age by maybe a few years.
I am an engineer and look at the earth as an organism that responds to impulses. The Sun gives two types of impulses: day and night, and summer and winter. We can take a look at the seasonal response in temperatures and notice the difference between now and when we had 14% less CO2 in the atmosphere. Fairly simple calculations will yield a 0.4 degree F rise for doubling CO2 levels over water, and about 1.2 degree F rise over land. The land increase has much higher variability between coastal and inland climate, but that is a ballpark number. This is not enough to offset the influence from a less active sun. The imbalances manifests itself in shrinking and growing ice and snowcaps. The trend is for increasing ice and snow, which means we are already well into the cooling phase.
To continue to thrive in an ever cooling climate we will have to find additional energy sources. There simply is not enough coal, oil and gas to sustain us in a quality of living to which we are accustomed, unless we expand the base for energy production. The only viable source of energy left would be expansion of nuclear energy. U235 and Plutonium based energy production have serious drawbacks with nuclear waste lasting for millenia.
May I suggest Thorium based Nuclear power. Here are 22 reasons to switch to Thorium based energy production:
The witnesses at the June 18 Subcommittee on Clean Air and Nuclear Safety hearing included four U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Administrators who formerly served in Republican Administrations—all four of whom were invited by Subcommittee Democrats to testify—and Alabama Attorney General Luther Strange. The hearing examined the Obama Administration’s push for intrusive anti-energy regulations that will cause energy prices to “necessarily skyrocket,” destroy millions of good-paying jobs, and reduce incomes for working Americans.
100% did agree
the President lied, so we see
as the warming got cold
we are not to be sold
on his “Carbon Pollution ” decree.
For the record. Here are the global temperatures anomaly record for the last 35 years
As to hurricanes, we are into record territory for no major hurricanes reaching landfall in the U.S.
Kevin Benn of Malmö, Sweden writes with some poetry…
to have an outlet for his frustration at not being able to engage local politicians or journalists in an open discussion about climate science and policy.
LIFE IS A GAS!
Life is a gas – CO2 – (and oxygen, of course) But to say that it drives the climate
Puts proverbial cart before horse.
What Al Gore said in his lecture, Unbacked by observable proof,
Turned out to be pure conjecture –
An inconvenient truth…
The ice-core samples from Vostok
Plotting temperature change over time
Revealed that in fact CO2 change
Lags hundreds of years behind.
Greenland was green when the Vikings
Settled a millennium ago; While Frost Fairs were held on the Thames Six centuries later, or so.
The IPCC used a Mann-made stick
To flatten this bumpy graph
To prove to us all – Q.E.D. –
That this life-giving gas ‘ain’t no larf!’
They say, thanks to human endeavour,
Our carbon footprints expand
Playing all hell with the weather
And flooding both ocean and land.
Once upon a time, CO2
Was a colourless, non-toxic gas;
Now: ”an anthropogenic emission”
On a mission to fry us, en masse.
The bottom line is that this vapour,
In solid or gaseous form,
Will turn the world into a greenhouse
Globally warmer than warm!
Mass production and consumption
Took off at the end of the war.
Despite Kyoto and Cops and Cap’n trade
CO2 levels continue to soar.
Fossil fuels, factories and flying machines
All add their bit to a graph
That rises each year exponentially
When it ought to be falling by half.
The temperature curve, however,
Just will not play the game:
Rise, fall, rise for a century
Then 17 years the same!
Elaborate computer models
Are the IPCC’s crystal ball
None of which have predicted
The recent no-warming-at-all!
Climate Science is now a religion
Where AGW is PC
And the MSM censure everything
Bar the Gospel of IPCC.
So worship the great god Consensus,
Believe what it tells you is Truth;
Or else you’ll be branded Denier
And your views will be taken as proof!
High Priest Strong said at Rio –
Leaving Greens to fill in the gaps –
”Isn’t the only hope for the planet
That the industrialised nations collapse?”
Now that’s hardly a secret agenda;
The Club of Rome endorsed it too:
”All we need is the right major crisis…”
And the scapegoat is – you know who!
So now parties of all creeds and colours
Profess to this climate-smart code:
Nature should be a museum
Back in pre-industrial mode.
The Germans have ‘Energiewende’,
Exchanging nuclear power for coal;
The Brits import timber from Canada
To spruce up their CO2 goals.
The rest of the Greens look to EU
To tax us all off the map
Survivors will catch the Royal Virus,
Prince Philip – jolly old chap!
Meanwhile, in the real world, the future
Has billions of new mouths to feed.
So ‘power plants’ must be provided
To supply them with all that they need.
Electricity and food for all
Means carbon dioxide, you see,
In South America, Africa, Asia…
Rather than just you and me.
Now 400 parts per million
Historically speaking’s quite small
So it’s thanks to a gentle warming
That the planet is greening at all.
For ask any market gardener
What the Greenhouse Effect means to them
And they’ll tell you that king-sized veggies
Crave 1200 ppm.
The more CO2, then, the better;
Photosynthesis thrives on the stuff.
So frack up both oil and shale gas;
Of which there is more than enough.
And let us pray Global Warming
Doesn’t take a turn for the worse
As its cousin, Global Cooling,
Is definitely more of a curse.
For Climate Change is the default –
The null-hypothetical state.
On those that say Man overrides this
The burden of proof is great.
For the climate has always been changing;
Change is here to stay.
As King Canute showed on the seashore,
Man cannot keep Nature at bay!
So, historians, when you review our time
And our hysterical CO2 show,
Remember that Mankind can’t be blamed
For your landscape of ice and snow.
At Nelson Mandela’s memorial service Obama was part of a selfie with the Danish Social Democrat Prime Minister Helle Thorning- Schmidt and the British PM David Cameroun. Their levity seemed out-of-place for the occasion since it occurred early while the eulogies were still going on, boring as they are, but out of respect for the diseased you behave.
Yesterday the European Union held elections to choose a new parliament. It is largely a debating body with no real power, the real power rests with the unelected bureaucrats.
The results for Denmark: The Social Democrat is no longer the largest party represented in EU, they lost out to Dansk Folkeparti, an upstart party critical of EU and the Climate Change program.
David Cameron and the Conservatives in Britain fared even worse, they now have the third largest representation in EU, After UKIP (United Kingdom Independence Party) and Labour. It is clear the European Peoples are thoroughly fed up with the EU bureaucracy, stifling regulations and insane Climate Change policies. As Barack Obama and John Kerry might say: Europe has now joined the flat earth society.
Environmentalists unite! Bring back the clothesline!
Some time ago we moved up to beautiful State College, PA, happy valley, where the thousand hills keep rolling on. It is said to be the best place for mental health in the nation and people seems to be happy, some driving their Toyota Priuses, some of them still displaying their Obama bumper stickers. But one thing is missing. With all these environmentalists around, where are the clothes lines? It turns out they are deemed unsightly, especially by home owners association by-laws.
In the next valley, in another world, the Amish are proudly displaying their Monday wash, their clotheslines are proudly displayed in the front yard. It is a magnificent sight.
They even have boys and girls clotheslines!
Am I missing something? When the EMP pulse comes, either by a solar flare or a nuclear missile, the Amish never made themselves totally dependent on the electric grid. I fact, they shun getting connected to the “English” as they call it. That doesn’t mean they do not use electricity. Their cell phones are recharged via solar panels, and their buggy headlights are of the LED type, which drain only one seventh of the power on their marine batteries (solar recharged, of course).
So, who are the “flat earthers”? Certainly not the Amish. They are good stewards of the environment and obey all the new regulations (albeit grudgingly) from the Chesapeake Bay Commission.
The White House has proposed cutting methane emissions from the dairy industry by 25 percent by 2020. Although U.S. agriculture only accounts for about 9 percent of the country’s greenhouse gas emissions, according to the Environmental Protection Agency, it makes up a sizeable portion of methane emissions — which is a very potent greenhouse gas.
Picture left: The cows are coming home to get milked, well nourished from a healthy grass diet
Picture right: Research cow from Argentina fitted with a methane collecting backpack. This cow is fed feedlot style.
You cannot accuse EPA to be lax;
It works very hard to propose a fart tax.
They are running on fumes:
Tax the bovine perfumes!
Throw all the bums out! Let us give them the axe.
The cause of Climate Change is still up in the air.
Sherlock Holmes: “It is a capital mistake to theorize before one has data. Insensibly one begins to twist facts to suit theories instead of theories to suit facts”. From: “Scandal in Bohemia” by Arthur Conan Doyle.
The very first Earth Day was celebrated April 22 1970, on the 100 year anniversary of the birth of Vladimir Lenin (Владимир Ильич Ленин). True green environmentalists keep telling me it is just a coincidence. I think not.
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The first Earth Day in Philadelphia 1970 featured Ira Einhorn (The Unicorn Killer) as master of Ceremonies. The big environmental scare of the day was the threat of a new Ice Age. The clarion call was: “In the year 2000 temperatures will have fallen 10 degrees”, the culprit was pollution, especially acid rain. The acid rain was so bad in the Adirondacks, Canada, Norway and Sweden that the Rainbow Trout died in droves, and even the oceans were in danger of getting too acid. Regulations were enacted to add Sulfur scrubbers to power stations, waste water was purified, and – wouldn’t you know it, the cooling trend reversed itself and was followed by warming. Since the cooling trend was “obviously man-made” they had to find a similar reason for the sudden warming.
Never mind that around the year 1200 there was at least one farm on South West Greenland that exported, among other things, cheese. How do we know that? They have excavated the ruins of a farm, “Gården under Sanden”, buried under permafrost for five centuries. During these five centuries the Northern Hemisphere experienced what is called “the little ice age” a time when the winters could be so cold that in 1658 the Swedish army, cavalry and artillery crossed the Belts in the southwestern Baltic over ice and sacked Copenhagen.
Picture left: Gården under sanden excavation.
Picture right: The crossing of the Great Belt 1658.
To predict future climate changes many computer models have been developed dealing with how the earth responds to changes in atmospheric conditions, especially how it responds to changes in CO2 levels. Most were developed in the 1970 to 2000 time frame, a time of rapid temperature rise and as such they were all given a large factor for the influence of rising CO2. Since 1998 we have had a cooling trend, so the models cooperate less and less and are given more and more unreliable predictions. It is no wonder then that they all have failed to model the past. None of them have reproduced the medieval warm period or the little ice age. If they cannot agree with the past there is no reason to believe they have any ability to predict the future. The models are particularly bad when it comes to predict cloud cover and what time of day clouds appear and disappear. Below is a chart of a number of climate models and their prediction of cloud cover versus observed data. Note especially to the right where they completely fail to notice the clear skies over Antarctica.
Is there a better way to predict future temperature trends? When you go to the doctor for a physical, at some point and without warning he hits you under the knee with a hammer and watches your reaction. He is observing your impulse response. Can we observe impulse responses for the earth? One obvious case is volcanic eruptions. Sometimes the earth burps a lot of carbon dioxide or methane. But the most interesting response would be how the earth responds to a solar flare with a sudden change in the amount of cosmic radiation hitting the earth. That would give the best indication how the sun and cosmic radiation affects cloud formation. A couple of solar flares lately have been giving us a hint how the cloud cover responds to changes in cosmic radiation, and they are consistent with the latest results from the CLOUD project conducted using the CERN particle accelerator, a confirmation of a theory forwarded by the Danish Physicist Henrik Svensmark. He first presented the theory in 1997 and finally got the results verified and published in 2007, but the prevailing consensus has been slow to accept the theory that the sun as the primary driver of climate change.
We have many reasons to be concerned about the well-being of the earth, but rising levels of CO2 is not one of them. In fact, CO2 is our friend. Rising CO2 levels increases crop yields, makes the impact of land use changes less pronounced and the photosynthesis process more efficient, using less water and allowing us to grow crops on land once deemed unprofitable.
Picture right: The CERN Cloud apparatus in 2009.
James Hansen, a world famous climate science activist/NASA physicist writes in one of his publications, called “Earth’s Energy Imbalance and Implications“. It contains a quote that ties nicely in with Sherlock Holmes observation: The precision achieved by the most advanced generation of radiation budget satellites is indicated by the planetary energy imbalance measured by the ongoing CERES (Clouds and the Earth’s Radiant Energy System) instrument (Loeb et al., 2009), which finds a measured 5-year-mean imbalance of 6.5 W/m2 (Loeb et al., 2009). Because this result is implausible, instrumentation calibration factors were introduced to reduce the imbalance to the imbalance suggested by climate models, 0.85 W/m2 (Loeb et al., 2009). (Picture shows James Hansen arrested outside White House fence during one of his demonstrations.)
There we have it. The observed data does not fit the climate models. Change the observed data! Then use that data to validate the climate models! How convEEnient, as the SNL Churchlady used to say. Shenanigans like this have been exposed in what has been named “Climategate1.0”, followed by “Climategate2.0” This is what happens when politicians take over science and make further funding contingent on obtaining desired results.
Len Bilén's blog, a blog about faith, politics and the environment. 
