economy – Page 4 – Len Bilén's blog, a blog about faith, politics and the environment.

A Coking Coal Limerick.

From Financial Times: The ability of policymakers in Beijing to roil global commodity markets has led to quite a rally in a key steel making ingredient that has caught consumers cold, but promises a profit windfall for the struggling mining industry.

The price of premium hard coking coal has more than doubled in the past six weeks to more than $200 a ton as supplies have dwindled and buyers have scrambled to find cargoes in the spot market.

China is on the march:

The price of the cooking coal spikes.

Is China the cause of the hikes?

They’re preparing for war;

WW III at the door.

The change that Obama wrought. Yikes!

Brexit, secession fever in Britain. A Limerick.

Secession is brewing in Britain

from EU they’ll vote to be quittin’

More than half to secede,

a reliable read.

No wall, yet the handwriting written.

The headlines go from bad to worse for the UK and EU establishment as yet another new poll this weekend, by Opini um, shows “Brexit” leading by a remarkable 19 points (52% chose to leave the EU against 33% choosing to keep the status quo). This result comes after 2 polls Friday night showing a 10-point lead for “leave” which sparked anxiety across markets. This surge in “leave” probability comes despite an additional 1.5 million voters having registered this week (which many expected to increase “remain” support). Further anger towards EU was exposed when former cabinet minister Iain Duncan Smith warned that seven new prisons will need to be built in the UK by 2030 to cope with the rising number of migrant criminals (presumedly due to ‘staying’ in the EU). With market anxiety rising, as One River’s CIO notes, if Brexit happens, gold will soar.

All major parties are campaigning for Britain to stay in the EU. Here is the Green Party reason: Caroline Lucas has called on Green voters to back remaining in the EU on June 23rd, declaring the imminent vote a “climate referendum”.

Lucas, who is a board member of Britain Stronger in Europe and Another Europe is Possible, as well as the Green Party’s only MP, warned a vote for Brexit would undermine efforts to tackle climate change and build a greener economy.

“June 23rd is a climate referendum,” she said. “Leaving the EU could wreck our chances of playing a part in the fight against this existential threat – and hand the country to people who don’t even believe climate change is happening. But by staying as a member of the EU we can build on the progress already made in Paris earlier this year and continue making strides towards a fossil-free future.”

She reiterated her view the EU is in need of sweeping reform, but insisted it remained the “best hope we have when it comes to tackling climate change and protecting our environment”.

President Obama visited Britain recently and advocated strongly for Britain to stay in the EU, warning that if they left they would be at “the back of the queue” for a U.S. trade deal. According to polls taken just before and just after Obama’s visit, that recommendation alone lead to a 3 to 5 point uptick in favor of Brexit.

The fiscal status of all fifty states and Puerto Rico according to party rule.

The Mercatus Center of George Mason University has come out with a study of which states are most fiscally solvent as of fiscal year 2014. These are their rankings of all 50 states and Puerto Rico. The best fiscal status in 2014 is enjoyed by states ruled by a Republican governor, Republican legislature. There are 25 of these with an average score of 0.89

1. Alaska 9.56

2. Nebraska 2.65

3. Wyoming 2.60

4. North Dakota 2.60

5. South Dakota 2.18

6. Florida 1.94

7. Utah 1.19

8. Oklahoma 1.19

9. Tennessee 0.88

11. Ohio 0.56

12. Idaho 0.44

13. Nevada 0.41

15. Alabama 0.28

16. Texas 0.20

17. Indiana 0.17

18. South Carolina – 0.04

21. North Carolina – 0.17

23. Georgia – 0.30

27. Kansas – 0.44

28. Arkansas – 0.50

29. Wisconsin – 0.51

31. Arizona – 0.60

32. Mississippi – 0.65

33. Louisiana – 0.73

35. Michigan – 0.78

Slightly negative for fiscal responsibility is to have a Democrat Governor, Republican Legislature. There are 6 of these with an average score of – 0.16

10. Montana 0.69

14. Missouri 0.34

19. Virginia – 0.04

20. New Hampshire – 0.05

39. Pennsylvania – 0.97

40. West Virginia – 0.99

Now we are getting into real negative territory for fiscal solvency. We start with a Republican Governor, Split Legislature. There are four of those with an average score of – 0.91

25. Iowa – 0.37

34. New Mexico – 0.75

42. Maine – 1.15

46. Kentucky – 1.36

Not quite as bad bad is to have a Democrat Governor, split Legislature. There are four of them with an average 0f – 0.51

22. Colorado – 0.27

24. Washington – 0.31

28. Minnesota – 0.44

42. New York – 1.03

Much worse is to have a Democrat Governor, Democrat Legislature. The seven of them have an average score of – 1.00

30. Oregon – 0.58

36. Vermont – 0.79

37. Rhode Island – 0.90

38. Delaware – 0.92

44. California – 1.07

45. Hawaii – 1.07

50. Connecticut – 1.68

Worst of all is to have a Republican Governor, Democrat Legislature. There are four of those with an average of – 1.36.

41. Maryland – 1.02

47. Illinois – 1.42

48. New Jersey – 1.45

49. Massachusetts – 1.55

And then there is Puerto Rico in a ‘class’ by itself.

51. Puerto Rico – 3.15

This helps to explain why Democrats want the Federal Government to handle everything for them since their states are hopelessly irresponsible with their states affairs, while Republicans as a rule tend to want to have every state handle their own affairs as they see best fit.

One further startling observation is that New Jersey under Governor Chris Christie came in second from last. This helps to explain the reluctance of the more conservative (or fiscally responsible states) to endorse him for President.

On the other hand, Alaska came in first, not in small part due to the heroic efforts of Sarah Palin during her 31.7 month reign as Governor, where she managed to get the Credit Rating for her state to go from AA to AA+ and then raised again to AAA shortly after her resignation. She accomplished more in this short time than most governors do in two terms.

This also helps in part to explain the irrational hatred for Sarah Palin. She did clean up the graft and corruption in Alaska, and they are afraid she would do the same on a national level should she be selected for Vice President.

A terrible jobs report, Obama delusional. A Limerick.

On Thursday President Obama made a visit to Elkhart, Indiana to brag about his economic recovery and cited this as one reason to elect Hillary Clinton in order to preserve his legacy. He also slammed Fox News for reporting otherwise.

Never mind that many living in Elkhart rejected Obama taking credit for the economic progress of hard working businesses in the area, preferring to think it was more due to their solid republican government and their own perseverance. The next day the May jobs report came out, and is the worst we’ve seen on the employment front in five years. Don’t be fooled by a declining unemployment rate, just 38,000 jobs were added last month. Nearly half a million persons gave up their job search and left the work force, as people have been doing for years.The percentage of Americans in the labor force is the smallest since 1978 with 94.71millions of workers out of the labor force.

So if you are one of the millions of workers, ready, willing and able to work but not being able to find any for years, you may feel like this.

If unemployed more than a year,

discouraged, a case less severe.

Do not go ballistic,

you are a statistic.

A loser, a discard, you hear?

This helps to explain the rise of Trump.

The BDI index hit a twentyfourth new all time low of 290 today. The worldwide economic downturn is gaining speed. Update 5.

The Baltic Dry Index has been in new all time low record territory since Dec 14 2015, hitting its nineteenth all time low. Before that the all time low was 509 on Feb. 19 2015. Today, February 3, it hit a value of 303, a 40 percent drop since Dec. 14. In the spring of 2008 it hit a record high of 11793 before dropping to below 700 a couple of months before the financial crash of 2008.

What is the BDI you say?

From the Economist: THE Baltic Dry Index (BDI), which measures the rates for chartering the giant ships that transport iron ore, coal and grain, has long attracted the attention of commentators hoping to take the pulse of world trade. The cost of shifting the basic raw materials that are the ingredients of steel, energy and food supposedly provides a leading indicator of the state of the world economy. If so the forecast would suggest that a storm at sea will shortly make landfall. The index, a composite of rates charged on a variety of important trade routes, has hit an all-time low, after sinking by 65% in the past 13 weeks alone. Even in the depths of the financial crisis shipping rates kept their heads further above water. Why are they so remarkably low now?

That was written Mar. 10 2015. Things are much worse now.

At 303, it stands 40% below its December 14 value, and 97.43% below its all time peak value a few months before the crash of 08.

The worldwide recession is coming, and it will be severe.

Update 1: The BDI index is at 298 on Thursday 2/4, down another 1.65% a new all time low.

Update 2: The BDI index hit 297 on Friday 2/5, a new all time low.

Update 3: The BDI index hit 293 on Monday 2/8. How low can it get?

Update 4: The BDI index hit 291 on Tuesday 2/9. Down, down, down, down, down.

Updqte 5. The BDI index hit 290 on Wednesday 2/10. Can it still go lower? The losses mount.

Baltic Dry Index at a eighteenth all time low. Major trouble ahead. (Update 17).

January 7 2016 the Baltic Dry Index hit an all time low at 445, and has been in new all time low record territory since Dec 14. Before that the all time low was 509 on Feb 19 2015.

What is the BDI you say?

The BDI is a very leading indicator indicating guesses on the amount and price for shipping dry freight worldwide in the future. It is very volatile, as we can see from the chart with a high of nearly twelve thousand in the spring of 2008 and dropping to less than 700 a couple of months before the economic crash of 2008.

The new all time low of 445 signals major trouble ahead.

Update: The BDI index hit a new all time low of 429 on Friday 1/8.

Update 2: The BDI index hit another all time low of 415 on Monday 1/11.

Update 3: The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 402 on Tuesday 1/12.

Update 4: The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 394 on Wednesday 1/13.

Update 5: The BDI index hit a sixth daily all time low of 383 on Thursday 1/14.

Update 6: The BDI index hit a seventh daily all time low of 373 on Friday 1/15.

Update 7: The BDI index hit an eighth daily all time low of 369 on Monday 1/18.

Update 8: The BDI index hit a ninth daily all time low of 363 on Tuesday 1/19.

Update 9: The BDI index hit a tenth daily all time low of 358 on Wednesday 1/20.

Update 10: The BDI index hit an eleventh daily all time low of 355 on Thursday 1/21.

Update 11: The BDI index hit a twelfth daily all time low of 354 on Friday 1/21.

Update 12: After one day when the BDI index held steady the BDI index hit a thirteenth all time low of 345 on Tuesday 1/26.

Update 13: The BDI index continued its decline to levels much below operating cost and is now at 337 another new all time low on Wednesday 1/27.

Update 14: When will it stop? The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 325 on Thursday 1/28.

Update 15: How low can it go? Update 15: How low can it go? The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 317 on Friday 1/29.

Update 16: Down, down, down, down, down. The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 314 on Monday 2/1.

Update 17: The BDI index hit an eighteenth all time low of 310 on Tuesday 2/2.

This is a very strong global recession signal, indicating a future worldwide trading collapse, much worse than in 2008.

Note: It continues to go down. The statistics can be followed at: https://lenbilen.com/2016/02/03/the-bdi-index-hit-a-nineteenth-new-all-time-low-of-303-today-the-worldwide-economic-downturn-is-gaining-speed/

The Sarah Palin campaign song.

Ode to Sarah Palin. The campaign song.

(Best sung to “This ole house” by Stuart Hamblen.)

Verse 1. Sarah Palin is a leader, Sarah Palin is a wife,

Sarah Palin is a mother, And she knows the way of life

She was born in Sandpoint, Idaho, Alaska got her call,

was called Sarah Barracuda as State Champ of basketball

Refrain:

Ain’t no time to linger longer, Ain’t no time to stay behind,

We must step up to the challenge For she is one of a kind.

Ain’t no time to watch destruction, Nor to take our freedoms light.

Ain’t no time for politicking. We are ready to fight the fight.

Verse 2. The ecology runs better, Thanks to clean, pure CO2.

Grows more food to feed the hungry, That’s what Climate Change will do.

But Obama, Bernie, Hillary Think more of One World Rule;

Dream of Carbon Sequestration; They are stubborn as a mule.

Refrain.

Verse 3. Sarah Palin to the rescue, Sarah Palin to our aid,

Sarah Palin to the forefront ‘gainst the cronies being paid.

On our knees we plead for mercy; On our knees we pray for grace.

For the battle is the Lord’s and In His will we’ll run the race.

Refrain.

Verse 4. In this world of evil people She will stand for what is right.

While as Christians we are humbled It is God who leads the fight.

With the Clintons and their Spirits, And Obama and Islam,

And their hate for true religion, It is hard to keep the calm.

Refrain.

Verse 5. Sarah Palin undefeated, Sarah Palin unafraid,

Sarah Palin uncorrupted By the Devil’s best plans laid.

It is time to stand for virtue, It is time to stand for truth.

It is time to vote, be counted So this land regains its youth.

Refrain.

Verse 67 of the Obama Impeachme nt song. Obama to the dustbin of history. nt song.

Verse 67 of the Obama Impeachme

nt song. Obama to the dustbin of history.

At a news conference Monday at the G20 conference in Turkey, Obama was asked if his “reluctance to enter another Middle East war and [his] preference of diplomacy over using the military makes the U.S. weaker and emboldens our enemies.”

Obama responded: “Some of [my critics] seem to think that if I were just more bellicose in expressing what we’re doing, that that would make a difference, because that seems to be the only thing that they’re doing is talking as if they’re tough. Folks want to pop off and have opinions about what they think they would do, present a specific plan. What I’m not interested in doing is posing or pursuing some notion of American leadership or America winning or whatever other slogans they come up with that has no relationship to what is actually gonna work to protect the American people and to protect people in the region.”

What? The best possible interpretation of what he said is that he is delusional. All other interpretations are worse. This leads to verse 67 of the Obama Impeachment song (as if sung by Obama to the tune of “Please release me, let me go”)

I don’t really want to win

Though ISIS wants to do me in.

Christians take it on the chin

I’ll go to the history’s dustbin.

Here is the complete impeachment song: https://lenbilen.com/2015/02/25/the-complete-obama-impeachment-song/

Kim Jong-un takes credit for South Korea’s market fall. A Limerick.

Kim Jong-un is just trying to please

Kill off 80 officials at ease

“I can too, look at me!

Kill their markets with glee.

South Korea will never see peace.”

Background:

A North Korean website for propaganda to the South, called “Woori Minjok Kkiri,” which means getting together between our races, reported: “In economic terms, even a child knows that the economy of South Korea, which depends on foreign capital by 70 percent, will be miserably destroyed to the extent that it will not be able to survive. Indeed, South Korea’s stock market index has dropped more than 50 percent.” – See more at: http://www.businesskorea.co.kr/article/11787/absurd-propaganda-campaign-north-korea-says-south-korea%E2%80%99s-air-tickets-selling-10x#sthash.HO8boEAW.dpuf

Verse 58 of the Obama impeachment song. O.K the Iran gets nukes deal – or the Dollar is finished.

On Tuesday U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry said at a Reuters Newsmaker event:

“If the United States walks away from the nuclear deal with Iran and demands that its allies comply with U.S. sanctions, a loss of confidence in U.S. leadership could threaten the dollar’s position as the world’s reserve currency”

“If we turn around and nix the deal and then tell them, ‘You’re going to have to obey our rules and sanctions anyway,’ that is a recipe, very quickly … for the American dollar to cease to be the reserve currency of the world,”

This is blackmail. Obama gives away 150 Billion dollars to Iran, after which Iran is free to Nix the deal in 35 days and make nuclear bombs in a couple of months after that, – or, he is willing to negotiate away the dollar as well. Given the Obama team’s excellent negotiating skills, breaking every negotiating rules in the book – what could go wrong?

Which leads to is verse 58 of the Obama impeachment song. (Imagine it sung by Obama to the tune of “Please release me, let me go”).

I use blackmail every day

make Congress kneel down and obey.

Unless they do as I say

the Dollar is finished – gone away.

The complete Obama Impeachment song.