Coronavirus death rates and trends for the five worst states versus the five best states. Look at Michigan versus South Dakota.

The trend of the five worst and the five best states of Covid-19 death rates versus percent of population tested:

State death rate trend percentage of population tested

. May 8 May 11 up/down May 8 May 11

Michigan 9.48% 9.64% up 2.4% 3.1%

2. Connecticut 8,87% 8.91% up 3.1% 3.7%

3. New York 7.80% 7.80% __ 5.6% 6.2%

4. Lousiana 7.23% 7.32% up 4.4% 4.9%

5. New Jersey 6.55% 6.71% up 4.4% 4.9%

….

46. Tennessee 1.66% 1.61% down 3.4% 4.0%

47. Nebraska 1.17% 1.16% down 2.0% 2.5%

48. Wyoming 1.08% 1.05% down 2.1% 2.3%

49. Utah 1.03% 1.06% up 4.3% 4.7%

50. South Dakota 0.98% 0.94% down 2.4% 2.7%

Beside from the obvious fact that the five worst states are all run by Democrat Governors and the five best state are all run by Republicans, these are my observations:

The five worst states show a rising death rate, even though the test rate is increasing. The five best state show a falling death rate, which is to be expected as testing is increased.

Michigan has a Detroit problem. The COVID-19 death rate there is over 10%, many got turned away from the few hospitals and were sent home without first being tested. Governor Gretchen Whitmer seems more interested in controlling the healthy population than to protect the vulnerable.

Why Connecticut is second on the list I don’t know, but Hartford County has a problem with a death rate over 10%. It is also next to New York, where the death rate in New York City still is either 7.92% or 10.7% if you include probable deaths.

The problem with New York is that Governor Cuomo ordered nursing home facilities to accept COVID-19 patients, they are not set up to handle highly contagious patients, and so the infection and death rate among the most vulnerable population skyrocketed. One interesting statistics is that two thirds of all New York COVID-19 cases were from people staying home, not going out at all.

The problem with Louisiana is that it let Mardi Gras proceed, people came, did their thing and went back to where they came from, often to under-served areas.

New Jersey is next to New York. Need I say more?

On the other hand, the five best states concentrated their efforts to protect the at risk people, concentrating on hygiene and social distancing rather than trying to micromanage the healthy population. There seems to be no improvement in the outcome by adding testing. In addition the death rate among the five worst states is still rising, whereas the death rate in the five best states is declining.

Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, the state with the best outcome of all states so far did order a clinical test of using the combination Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days and that may be the reason the death rate is less than 1 percent. Unfortunately the FDA is concerned that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are being used inappropriately to treat non-hospitalized patients for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) or to prevent that disease. Quote:” We authorized their temporary use only in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 when clinical trials are not available, or participation is not feasible, through an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). These medicines have a number of side effects, including serious heart rhythm problems that can be life-threatening.”

Here is my suggestion: Issue an executive order opening up a clinical study in the effectiveness of COVID-19 treatment with Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days, and open it up to any qualified Physician or Nurse Practitioner who want to participate. They do the heart test, check for other ailments and report the results to a central data base and a follow up report, and even if it is not a double blind study, once you have a million or so results the FDA can approve the medication. In the meantime over 90% of the patients were getting better, and hopefully nobody had given it to patients with severe preexisting heart conditions. The risk is minimal. It is already approved for Lupus, Rheumatism and Malaria, and the same protocol should apply here.

It is very important the drugs are administered as early as possible. By the time the patient is admitted to a hospital it may be too late. Especially if the patient is already on a ventilator it may do more harm than good.

Why is this study even necessary? This medication is too cheap, it is generic, so no pharmaceutical company is willing to foot the bill on something unprofitable, so it must be done by a university or through a government agency.

It is not that daring a thing to do. Here is a result of a COVID-19 study with more than 6,200 physicians in 30 countries.

The three most commonly prescribed treatments among COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine
Hydroxychloroquine usage among COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the U.S., 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan
Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy among COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
- 75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.
The two most common treatment regimens for Hydroxychloroquine were:
- (38%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 400 mg daily for five days
- (26%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 200mg twice daily for four days
Outside the U.S., Hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the U.S. it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients
Globally, 19% of physicians prescribed or have seen Hydroxychloroquine prophylactically used for high risk patients, and 8% for low risk patients.

And this is a very recent tweet from president Donald Trump, without which frequent and persistent recommendation this drug combination would have already been approved, as it is in at least 12 other countries.

Make a nationwide clinical test of using the combination Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days to treat COVID-19 patients. It will save lives!

The five worst and the five best states of Covid-19 death rates versus percent of population tested:

Michigan 9.48% death rate and 2.4% of population tested

2. Connecticut 8,87% 3.1%

3. New York 7.80% 5.6%

4. Lousiana 7.23% 4.4%

5. New Jersey 6.55% 4.4%

….

46. Tennessee 1.66% 3.4%

47. Nebraska 1.17% 2.0%

48. Wyoming 1.08% 2.1%

49. Utah 1.03% 4.3%

50. South Dakota 0.98% 2.4%

Beside from the obvious fact that the five worst states are all run by Democrat Governors and the five best state are all run by Republicans, these are my observations:

Why Connecticut is second on the list I don’t know, but Hartford County has a problem with a death rate over 10%

The problem with Louisiana is that it let Mardi Gras proceed and people came, did their thing and went back to where they came from, often to under-served areas.

New Jersey is next to New York. Need I say more?

On the other hand, the five best states concentrated their efforts to protect the at risk people, concentrating on hygiene and social distancing rather than trying to micromanage the healthy population. There seem to be no improvement in the outcome by adding testing. In addition the death rate among the five worst states is still rising, whereas the death rate in the five best states is declining.

Governor Kristi Noem of South Dakota, the state with the best outcome so far did order a clinical test of using the combination Hydroxychloroquine + Azithromycin + Zinc for five days and that may be the reason the death rate is less than 1 percent. Unfortunately the FDA is concerned that hydroxychloroquine and chloroquine are being used inappropriately to treat non-hospitalized patients for coronavirus disease (COVID-19) or to prevent that disease. Quote:” We authorized their temporary use only in hospitalized patients with COVID-19 when clinical trials are not available, or participation is not feasible, through an Emergency Use Authorization (EUA). These medicines have a number of side effects, including serious heart rhythm problems that can be life-threatening.”

It is very important the drug is administered as early as possible. By the time the patient is admitted to a hospital it may be too late. Especially if the patient is already on a ventilator it may do more harm than good.

It is not that daring a thing to do. Here is a result of a COVID-19 study with more than 6,200 physicians in 30 countries.

The three most commonly prescribed treatments among COVID-19 treaters are 56% analgesics, 41% Azithromycin, and 33% Hydroxychloroquine
Hydroxychloroquine usage among COVID-19 treaters is 72% in Spain, 49% in Italy, 41% in Brazil, 39% in Mexico, 28% in France, 23% in the U.S., 17% in Germany, 16% in Canada, 13% in the UK and 7% in Japan
Hydroxychloroquine was overall chosen as the most effective therapy among COVID-19 treaters from a list of 15 options (37% of COVID-19 treaters)
- 75% in Spain, 53% Italy, 44% in China, 43% in Brazil, 29% in France, 23% in the U.S. and 13% in the U.K.
The two most common treatment regimens for Hydroxychloroquine were:
- (38%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 400 mg daily for five days
- (26%) 400mg twice daily on day one; 200mg twice daily for four days
Outside the U.S., Hydroxychloroquine was equally used for diagnosed patients with mild to severe symptoms whereas in the U.S. it was most commonly used for high risk diagnosed patients
Globally, 19% of physicians prescribed or have seen Hydroxychloroquine prophylactically used for high risk patients, and 8% for low risk patients.

Sweden was right after all. No lock-down but hygiene, social separation and limited gatherings will work just as well.

As Europe and North America continue suffering their steady economic and social decline as a direct result of imposing “lockdown” on their populations, other countries have taken a different approach to dealing with the coronavirus threat. You wouldn’t know it by listening to western politicians or mainstream media stenographers, there are also non-lockdown countries. They are led by Sweden, Iceland, Belarus, Japan, South Korea and Taiwan. Surprisingly to some, their results have been as good or better than the lockdown countries, but without having to endure the socio-economic chaos we are now witnessing across the world. For this reason alone, Sweden and others like them, have already won the policy debate, as well as the scientific one too.

Unlike many others, Sweden has not enforced any strict mass quarantine measures to contain COVID-19, nor has it closed any of its borders. Rather, Swedish health authorities have issued a series of guidelines for social distancing and other common sense measures covering areas like hygiene, travel, public gatherings, and protecting the elderly and immune compromised. They have kept all preschools, primary and secondary schools open, while closing college and universities who are now doing their work and lectures online. Likewise, many bars and restaurants have remained open, and shoppers do not have to perform the bizarre ritual of queuing around the block standing 2 meters apart in order to buy groceries.

According to the country’s top scientists, they are now well underway to achieving natural herd immunity. It seems this particular Nordic model has already won the debate.

Because Sweden decided to follow real epidemiological science and pursue a common sense strategy of herd immunity, it doesn’t need to “flatten of the curve” because its strategic approach has the added benefit of achieving a much more gradual and wider spread.

This chart proves the point:

How well are the other non-lockdown countries doing?

Iceland has a total case count of 1799 and a death count of 10, all between March 21 and April 20.

Belarus has a total case count of 16705 and a death count of 99, and the death chart looks like this:

Here the daily death count has not risen above 5 per day. in a country of 9.5 million

Japan has a total case count of 14571 and a death count of 474, and the death chart looks like this:

Japan shows a unique pattern: It looked that they had beaten the coronavirus early, but then in April it started up again, but always at manageable levels.

South Korea has a total case count of 10793 and a death count of 250, and the death chart looks like this:

The death count rises, then stays constant for about 2 months and then declines, but slower than the new case count.

Taiwan has a total case count of 432 and a death count of 6, all between March 20 and April 10. And this in a country of 24 million!

Compare this with Belgium, the center of European Union, and roughly the size of Sweden, it has a total case count of 49906 and a death count of 7844, and the death chart looks like this

This chart, representative of a lock-down country shows the same rise, flattop and decline as the charts of the non lock-down countries, but has a much higher death rate.

Quotes from https://www.zerohedge.com/health/why-sweden-has-already-won-debate-covid-19-lockdown-policy

this blog has been updated with values up to July 9: https://lenbilen.com/2020/07/10/sweden-was-right-no-lock-down-but-hygiene-social-separation-and-limited-gatherings-will-work-just-as-well/

HZQ-AZ-Z 5 day cheap cure to early COVID-19 onset is over 90% effective. Why not approve it now?

Remdesivir Just Became The First Drug to Show a ‘Clear-Cut’ Effect in Treating COVID-19

ISSAM AHMED, AFP

30 APRIL 2020

COVID-19 patients on the antiviral remdesivir recovered about 30 percent faster than those on a placebo, the results of a major clinical trial showed Wednesday, as a top US scientist hailed the drug’s “clear-cut” benefit.

This was touted as a major breakthrough by Dr Fauci in a Presidential briefing yesterday, and indeed, it seems to show efficacy. Patients on the drug, made by Gilead Sciences, had a 31 percent faster time to recovery than those on a placebo. “Specifically, the median time to recovery was 11 days for patients treated with remdesivir compared with 15 days for those who received placebo,” it said. The results also suggested that people who were on the drug were less likely to die, although the difference was quite small. The mortality rate was 8.0 percent for the group receiving remdesivir versus 11.6 percent for the placebo group.

On the other hand the FDA issued a warning for using the drug-combination HydroxyChloroQuine + AZithromycin + Zinc. AZ was approved in 1988, HCQ has been approved for malaria in over 50 years, and for Lupus and Rheumatism for decades, and all that requires for prolonged use is that an EKG is taken periodically to check for possible heart arrhythmia. It is an easy 5 day application and it shows good outcome in 91.7% of 1061 patients. Poor outcome was observed by 4,7% and in 0,47% the patient died. The age of those who died was 74 – 95 years old. If they had not taken this medication the death rate for people of that age is 5 – 8%. This is taken from the famous Marseille study.

Sequential CQ / HCQ Research Papers and Reports

January to April 20, 2020

Executive Summary Interpretation of the Data In This Report

The HCQ-AZ combination, when started immediately after diagnosis, appears to be a safe and efficient treatment for COVID-19, with a mortality rate of 0.5%, in elderly patients. It avoids worsening and clears virus persistence and contagious infectivity in most cases.

A cohort of 1061 COVID-19 patients, treated for at least 3 days with the HCQ-AZ combination and a follow-up of at least 9 days was investigated. Endpoints were death, worsening and viral shedding persistence. From March 3rd to April 9th, 2020, 59,655 specimens from 38,617 patients were tested for COVID-19 by PCR. Of the 3,165 positive patients placed in the care of our institute, 1061 previously unpublished patients met the inclusion criteria for a Hydroxychloroquine –Azithromycin trial.

Mean age was 43.6 years old and 492 were male (46.4%), As in other studies, no cardiac toxicity was observed in this study.

A good clinical outcome and virological cure was obtained in 973 patients out of a total pf 1061 patients within 10 days (91.7%).

Mortality was significantly lower in patients who had received > 3 days of HCQ-AZ than in patients treated with other regimens both at IHU and in all Marseille public hospitals

A poor outcome was observed for 46 patients (4.3%); –10 were transferred to intensive care units, 5 patients died (0.47%) (74-95 years old), 31 required 10 days of hospitalization or more.

Among this group, 25 patients are now cured and 16 are still hospitalized (98% of patients cured so far).

Why the different approaches to these two medications?

Most of the rest of the world are jumping on the HCQ-AZ-Z opportunity. Why not US?

Vitamin D – one weapon to combat the coronavirus.

The organization Grassroots health put out the results of 212 people that had the COVID-19 virus, roughly 50 each having a critical or severe or normal or mild outcome. The results were stunning. Nearly all with a high level of vitamin D level in the blood had a mild outcome, as opposed to those with a vitamin D deficiency.

Up to now vitamin D deficiency has mostly been a concern for the people with the following risk factors, but not as a virus fighter.

Osteoporosis or other bone disorder
Previous gastric bypass surgery
Age; vitamin D deficiency is more common in older adults.
Obesity
Lack of exposure to sunlight
Having a darker complexion
Difficulty absorbing fat in your diet

It should be fairly simple and fast to expand this analysis to a larger sample of people that also include people with antibodies to COVID-19 but never showed any symptoms.

If this holds true, we did the exact wrong thing by keeping people indoors in hope to slow the spread. Instead we should have encouraged people to be outdoors as much as possible, still practicing hygiene and social distance, give vitamin D to all over 65 (4000 IU), to all obese and people of dark complexion.

This is by no means the only suggestion, but it is one more weapon in the arsenal to combat this virus.

It is more dangerous to live in a state with a Democrat Governor than it is with a Republican Governor, at least in regard to COVID-19

Taking a snapshot of the COVID-19 cases as of Apr 23 I was curious to see if there were any differences in infection and death rates between states that has a Democrat Governor and those states that has a Republican Governor. And indeed there is, there are nearly three times as many cases (2.89) in states with a Democrat Governor as there are in states with a Republican governor, and the death rate is 62% higher, a more telling statistic.

There could be many reasons for this discrepancy, but here is some food for thought: The indoor environment is where most viruses spread, elevators, staircases, central ventilation, mass transportation just to name a few. This is typical of the urban environment. Living in rural areas on the other hand, much more time is spent outdoors, in sunshine, which kills the virus nearly immediately and fresh air is very good for basic health. Therefore to issue a nationwide ban to stay inside was the wrong thing to do. Cleanliness, social distancing and get outside as much as possible would have been much better. Go out, plant your garden, take your boat out for a weekend spin or visit your cottage in the woods. If you don’t have a cottage just take a walk in the woods and listen to the sounds of spring, but don’t put canned music in your ears. If you don’t have any woods nearby, use any area not crowded. That is one way to eliminate cabin fever.

Here are the statistics, state by state.

Democratic governor Cases Deaths

New York 268,581 20861

New Jersey 100,025 5428

California 39620 1531

Pennsylvania 37053 1685

Illinois 36934 1688

Michigan 35291 2997

Louisiana 25739 1599

Connecticut 23100 1639

Washington 12753 711

Virginia 11594 410

Colorado 11262 552

North Carolina 7854 281

Rhode Island 6256 189

Wisconsin 5052 257

Nevada 4208 189

Kentucky 3481 191

District of Columbia 3361 139

Delaware 3308 92

Minnesota 2942 200

Kansas 2734 113

New Mexico 2379 78

Oregon 2127 83

Maine 937 44

Hawaii 596 12

Montana 442 14

Total: 647,099 40,983 Death rate 6.33%

Republican governor Cases Deaths

Massachusetts 46023 2360

Florida 29648 987

Texas 22393 576

Georgia 21883 881

Maryland 15737 748

Ohio 14694 656

Indiana 13039 706

Tennessee 8266 170

Missouri 6384 243

Alabama 5832 201

Arizona 5769 249

Mississippi 5153 201

South Carolina 4917 150

Iowa 3924 96

Utah 3612 35

Oklahoma 3017 179

Arkansas 2599 45

Nebraska 2124 47

South Dakota 1956 9

Idaho 1836 54

New Hampshire 1670 51

West Virginia 981 31

Vermont 825 43

North Dakota 709 15

Wyoming 453 7

Alaska 337 9

Total: 223,781 8,749 Death rate 3.91%

Does lockdown work to flatten the curve? Look at Sweden versus Great Britain.

Conventional wisdom told us in the Coronavirus pandemic that the only way to stop the hospitals from being overrun and the healthcare system collapsing was to enforce “social separation” between people and shut down the ecnomy, allowing only “essential workers” to go to work. Initially Italy, Spain and France had their hospitals overrun with people and their death rate from COVID19 is over 10%. This made all European countries enforce draconian rules to protect what was left. All countries except Sweden that is. They let people go to work, encouraged working from home, limited gatherings to less than 50 people and practiced “social separation” at restaurants, but kept them open. United Kingdom locked down their country on March 23. How much worse did Sweden fare? They both have about the same number of tests per capita, about 1/2%.

They both seem to have the same rate of increase, and are leveling off

The death rate, a lagging indicator also seem to come down for both countries.

There is one country, Norway, which is similar to Sweden that is doing much better. They took the approach of early testing and contact tracing, and their death rate per person is one quarter of Sweden’s. But the early outbreak occurred in the ski areas and traveling hubs, a younger and fit segment of the population.

Belgium on the other hand has a death rate of over three times as many as Sweden, a country having about the same population as Sweden, and they tested nearly twice as many people! The big difference there was that nearly half of all deaths so far has occurred in nursing homes.

The conclusion: Go back to work, start up the economy again, test and protect the most vulnerable. Most people will get it anyway, and most of them will not even know they had it, and for most of the rest it will be about the same as the regular flu. Give Hydroxychloroquine and Z-pack and Zinc for 5 days to all that want it, including all in the risk zone. It must be under a physician’s supervision, not because of the Hydroxyxhloroquine, that has never killed anyone when taken in approved doses, but the Z-pack can make heart arrhythmia more severe.

Happy Resurrection Sunday!

This is the first day of the week. The Tomb is empty.

The churches are empty.

Let that sink in.We are the church.

The church building is not the church.

More people than ever may hear the message of the glorious resurrection of our Lord and Savior Jesus Christ today than ever in history thanks to the internet.

Read the words Of Gamaliel in Acts 5: “³⁴But a Pharisee named Gamaliel, a teacher of the law, who was honored by all the people, stood up in the Sanhedrin and ordered that the men (apostles) be put outside for a little while. ³⁵Then he addressed the Sanhedrin: “Men of Israel, consider carefully what you intend to do to these men. ³⁶Some time ago Theudas appeared, claiming to be somebody, and about four hundred men rallied to him. He was killed, all his followers were dispersed, and it all came to nothing. ³⁷After him, Judas the Galilean appeared in the days of the census and led a band of people in revolt. He too was killed, and all his followers were scattered. ³⁸Therefore, in the present case I advise you: Leave these men alone! Let them go! For if their purpose or activity is of human origin, it will fail. ³⁹But if it is from God, you will not be able to stop these men; you will only find yourselves fighting against God.”

So it is. The Coronavirus and the forces that unleashed it will be defeated, and the message of Christ will prevail.

Clinical trials take too long. With the COVID-19 virus acting on a time scale of 3 days, not 3 years, allow unlimited trials now!

The medicine suppliers have to go through a lot to get a new drug approved. There are the double blind tests that can take years to verify, and some of the people in the protocol are given placebos that only produce the side-effects, not the potential cure. Some of these people may die as a result, but that the cost of getting a drug approved. The cost can be upwards of 10 million dollars, so as a reward the Medical supplier company gets awarded a patent for the new medicine. This can take many years to develop, and a patent is valid for only 20 years, so a patent extension of up to 5 years is almost routinely granted. After the patent is expired it becomes a generic drug. And another thing, there has to be at least 170000 people suffering from the disease to make it worthwhile.

There is another way. Over 10 years ago my wife got a case of wet macular degeneration in one eye, but it was not the normal type, more like a blood-filled polyp lodging itself under the retina and causing warped vision to say the least.

There was an approved medication at 2000 dollars an injection, the insurance company paid for it, so she tried it, and it did absolutely nothing. But the eye doctor said, he worked with the Amish community, and they are uninsured and cannot afford more than generic drugs. He had had good results for a few to inject Avastin, an approved drug for colon and rectal cancer among other things, and in the amount needed for injection in one eye the cost was only 70 dollars. The trade-off was obvious; 2000 dollars for a drug that the insurance company paid for, but didn’t work versus a 70 dollar medicine that might work, so she let herself be included in the study. And it worked! And the doctor paid for the cost of the medicine himself, he wanted the study to succeed. He was not alone, a few other doctors worked together to find the cure. A few years later the insurance company accepted the treatment, and my wife’s polyp eventually disappeared.

The point of the story? To rely only on approved medications when confronted with cases out of the ordinary, medical science is advancing not only by medical companies seeking new and profitable drugs, or by University research, but by your regular doctor, in consultation with his peers, as they seek to find the best cure for the individual patient.

The Government is always to slow to react. In the case of COVID-19, it works on a time-scale of 3 days, so the best treatment must be administered immediately, not wait for normal approval procedures. So is the case with Hydroxychloroquine, it is approved and generic, no one will make a case study, the side effects are minimal for Lupus or rheumatic patients, of which there are tens of thousands patients and no one has died from it when applied in approved doses, so administer it to anyone that accepts to be in the study now!

The Corona-virus death rate is over-estimated, but by how much? Iceland gives a possible answer.

I have been fascinated with the spread of the coronavirus and the speed of which it has spread to all parts of the world. The question is how bad will it be, how many will die, and what can be done about it. Thanks to the ability to test who are having it, and who will get it, and how many have already died from it, and how many are still in critical care we can now estimate how bad it can be in countries with a good healthcare system, the Nordic Countries will serve as an example.

Let us begin with Sweden. They took a passive approach at first, the healthcare system will take care of the cases as they have always handled the flue. The problem is, that left to itself the coronavirus cases double every 3 days until the whole population is infected except for those with natural immunity. A few days ago even Sweden clamped down and is now implementing separation. Here are the current numbers for Sweden, normalized per million inhabitants

Cases 704, serious or critical 60, deaths 47, testing 0.36%

Denmark took a similar approach, and here are the

Cases 808, serious or critical 48, deaths 32, testing 0.92%

We can see testing makes a difference, cases go up, deaths go down

Finland is very similar, but cases started later:

Cases 393, serious or critical 35, deaths 5, testing 0.6%

Norway took a different approach, they applied early testing, and tracing and testing their contacts. Here are these results:

Cases 1082, serious or critical 16, deaths 14, testing 2.5%.

Going west there is the Faeroe Islands with little more than 50000 inhabitants:

Cases 3745, serious or critical 20, deaths 0, testing 10.2%.

Wow! No deaths at all! But the sample was small.

Of particular interest is Iceland. It is a unique country. Not only do they have excellent health care, they have the DNA genome of nearly every Icelander. They did a very aggressive testing, and here are the results so far:

Cases 4577, serious or critical 4, deaths 18, testing 8.2%.

It turns out that about half of those who tested positive had no symptoms, but were probably carriers. This leads us to the conclusion that testing is important, social separation only works if everyone participates, and if the country has an excellent health care system the total cases will be 5,6% of which 2.8% show no symptoms, critical or serious cases are 0.25%, and deaths are 0.3% of the whole population.

In a country like United States this means that we will have about 80000 deaths total if we test like Norway or Iceland from now on, and about 210000 deaths if we continue with only mitigation and no contact tracing, and let the disease work itself through the whole population.

The lesson from Spain, Italy and Franceis; if the hospitals get overloaded it could be far worse.

The generic drug Hydroxychloroquine combined with one more generic drug could lower those numbers substantially if taken voluntarily by a majority of early diagnosed patients, and even if taken later in the course of the disease. Of course there will always be some that would rather die than taking something that has been recommended by President Trump, but we are a free country, and there should be enough ventilators for them.

Enough people are taking the medicine cocktail now on a right to try basis to give us the answer in about two weeks if we can go back to work and back to normal life, but with changed social separation. The regular flu and pneumonia deaths are way down already.