The Sarah Palin campaign song.

Ode to Sarah Palin. The campaign song.

(Best sung to “This ole house” by Stuart Hamblen.)

Verse 1. Sarah Palin is a leader, Sarah Palin is a wife,

Sarah Palin is a mother, And she knows the way of life

She was born in Sandpoint, Idaho, Alaska got her call,

was called Sarah Barracuda as State Champ of basketball

Refrain:

Ain’t no time to linger longer, Ain’t no time to stay behind,

We must step up to the challenge For she is one of a kind.

Ain’t no time to watch destruction, Nor to take our freedoms light.

Ain’t no time for politicking. We are ready to fight the fight.

 

Verse 2. The ecology runs better, Thanks to clean, pure CO2.

Grows more food to feed the hungry, That’s what Climate Change will do.

But Obama, Bernie, Hillary  Think more of One World Rule;

Dream of Carbon Sequestration; They are stubborn as a mule.

Refrain.

Verse 3. Sarah Palin to the rescue, Sarah Palin to our aid,

Sarah Palin to the forefront ‘gainst the cronies being paid.

On our knees we plead for mercy; On our knees we pray for grace.

For the battle is the Lord’s and In His will we’ll run the race.

Refrain.

Verse 4. In this world of evil people She will stand for what is right.

While as Christians we are humbled It is God who leads the fight.

With the Clintons and their Spirits, And Obama and Islam,

And their hate for true religion, It is hard to keep the calm.

Refrain.

Verse 5. Sarah Palin undefeated, Sarah Palin unafraid,

Sarah Palin uncorrupted By the Devil’s best plans laid.

It is time to stand for virtue, It is time to stand for truth.

It is time to vote, be counted So this land regains its youth.

Refrain.

 

 

 

Which is more threatening? The attack in Paris, or Climate Change?

Watching with horror the multiple simultaneous Islamic terrorist attacks on innocent civilians in Paris, France, while Paris was under the highest possible alert for terrorist activities, the French President Hollande among the spectators at a soccer match between France and Germany, and the climate control conference COP21 only two weeks away, the words of President Obama still rings in my ears:

“My definition of leadership would be leading on climate change, an international accord that potentially we’ll get in Paris. My definition of leadership is mobilizing the entire world community to make sure that Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon.”

Obama is also quite proud of his milestones on climate change, particularly after reaching a “historic” deal with China in 2014.

“The historic climate change announcements that we made last year in Beijing have encouraged other countries to step up, as well, increasing the prospects for a stronger global agreement this year,” Obama said in September during a meeting with Chinese President Xi at the White House. This historic agreement means that China is allowed to emit six times more CO2 than U.S.A. by the year 2030.

According to a well-researched article by Bjorn Lomborg, peer-reviewed, entitled “Impact of Current Climate Proposals” the predictions of how a total success in implementing all climate mediation recommendations, the result will be:

This article investigates the temperature reduction impact of major climate policy proposals implemented by 2030, using the standard MAGICC climate model. Even optimistically assuming that promised emission cuts are maintained throughout the century, the impacts are generally small.

  • The impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) is a reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100.
  • The full US promise for the COP21 climate conference in Paris, its so-called Intended Nationally Determined Contribution (INDC) will reduce temperature rise by 0.031°C.
  • The EU 20-20 policy has an impact of 0.026°C, the EU INDC 0.053°C, and China INDC 0.048°C.
  • All climate policies by the US, China, the EU and the rest of the world, implemented from the early 2000s to 2030 and sustained through the century will likely reduce global temperature rise about 0.17°C in 2100.

These impact estimates are robust to different calibrations of climate sensitivity, carbon cycling and different climate scenarios. Current climate policy promises will do little to stabilize the climate and their impact will be undetectable for many decades.

Of particular interest is the impact of the US Clean Power Plan (USCPP) with its reduction in temperature rise by 0.013°C by 2100.

How much is 0.013 degrees? It is about as much as the adiabatic cooling of the atmosphere occurring between the feet and the head of an average sized person.

For this Obama is killing our Coal mining, while still calling the China climate agreement a success, allowing them to burn over half of the coal in the world.

And this is the most urgent danger facing us today?

Obama on leadership, COP21, the pause, warmest year on record, the facts.

Asking Obama about his comments a year ago that America is the indispensable nation and that America leads, CBS 60 minutes interviewer Steve Kroft commented that Vladimir Putin “seems to be challenging that leadership” with his actions in Syria.

Obama’s response was revealing about how he sees the role of the United States as a global leader. “If you think that running your economy into the ground and having to send troops in in order to prop up your only ally is leadership, then we’ve got a different definition of leadership,” Obama replied. “My definition of leadership would be leading on climate change, an international accord that potentially we’ll get in Paris. My definition of leadership is mobilizing the entire world community to make sure that Iran doesn’t get a nuclear weapon. And with respect to the Middle East, we’ve got a 60-country coalition that isn’t suddenly lining up around Russia’s strategy.”

Leadership? Obama seems to have an unique angle on leadership. He claimed in his  April 18 weekly address to the nation, : “2014 was the planet’s warmest year on record.”

This will be one of his main arguments going into the Climate Conference COP21 in Paris in December.

How accurate is this statement?

Besides from the fact that we are not even close to the Minoan warming period 3000 years ago, or the Roman warming period 2000 years ago, not even the Medieval warming period 1000 years ago it is way off the mark on other facts as well. The figure below is from the Greenland Ice Core probings and is one of the best gauges for temperature records the last 10000 years. 2014 was still one of the 1000 coldest. Note also that the inter-glacial maximum temperature was around 6000 years ago and we are well into the bog-building face where normally Carbon would be deposited in the bogs and trigger the next ice-age. Burning Coal slows down the cool-down.

Greenlandgisp-last-10000-new

We are now experiencing an 18 year 8 month pause in the warming occurring since the little ice age. This is an undisputed fact if one looks at the satellite data.

18yr8monthspauseHowever, if one looks at the data generated by the surface stations it looks quite different. There has been a substantial rise in global temperatures since measurements began, and indeed, this century is so far the warmest on record.

ncdc.global.history.0910So, who is right? The official satellite measurements or the official surface temperature measurements?

The satellite measurements are done without any corrections, but the instruments are frequently calibrated to ensure no temperature drifts occur over time.

On the other hand, the United states Historical Climatology Network (USHCN) is the custodian of temperature data from the 48 contiguous states. As temperature stations are dropped and others are added they try to do a homogenization step to present the most probable past temperatures for the 48 states. This leads to temperature adjustments to past readings. They sincerely try to do the best job possible to ensure the adjustments are without bias of any kind. If we look at the next picture they did a near perfect temperature adjustment of past temperatures as a linear function of CO2 concentration.

tempC02(Credit to Tom Heller who did the analysis). This means that all homogenization was performed assuming the temperature adjustments had to conform to the IPCC model.

In other words, by assuming the model is right you adjust the data until they fit the model. Using the adjusted data you then claim this proves the model is right.

Climate science?

Ted Cruz, the Sierra club, cooking and burning, the pause, and the 97% consensus.

During a hearing of a Judiciary subcommittee on Tuesday Oct. 6 regarding regulation and minorities, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, who is running for the Republican nomination on a platform that includes rejection of mainstream climate change political science, seized an opportunity to show off his debating skills and knowledge of facts.

In the video below Cruz is questioning Aaron Mair, president of the Sierra Club, and an epidemiological-spatial analyst with the New York State Department of Health.

Senator Cruz asked if the Sierra club President was familiar with the term “the pause”. After conferring with his technical expert Mr. Mair said it referred to the pause in global warming during the 4o’s.

Sen. Cruz tried to educate Mr Mair it referred to the 18 year pause in global warming as presented by the satellite data. To which Mr. Mair answered “we concur with what 97% of scientists say” and that “the earth is cooking and heating up and warming.”

Senator Cruz wanted to know if the Sierra Club would change their beliefs about man-made global warming if they were shown facts that disproved it. Cruz didn’t get an answer. Just the usual, “we concur with what 97% of scientists say.”

So, Where did that 97% of scientists consensus come from?

The number stems from a 2009 online survey of 10,257 earth scientists, conducted by two researchers at the University of Illinois. The survey results must have disappointed the researchers – in the end, they chose to highlight the views of a subgroup of just 77 scientists, 75 of whom thought humans contributed to climate change.  The ratio 75/77 produces the 97% figure that pundits now tout.

The two researchers started by altogether excluding from their survey the thousands of scientists most likely to think that the Sun, or planetary movements, might have something to do with climate on Earth – out were the solar scientists, space scientists, cosmologists, physicists, meteorologists, astronomers and scientist engineers with specialty control theory and thermodynamics. That left the 10,257 scientists in disciplines like geology, oceanography, paleontology, and geochemistry that were somehow deemed more worthy of being included in the consensus. The two researchers also decided that scientific accomplishment should not be a factor in who could answer – those surveyed were determined by their place of employment (an academic or a governmental institution). Neither was academic qualification a factor – about 1,000 of those surveyed did not have a PhD, some didn’t even have a master’s diploma. The responses were still not satisfactory, so the subgroup was further cull down to those who in the past years had written multiple peer-reviewed papers on climate science. This yielded the 77.

To encourage a high participation among these remaining disciplines, the two researchers decided on a quickie survey that would take less than two minutes to complete, and would be done online, saving the respondents the hassle of mailing a reply. Nevertheless, most didn’t consider the quickie survey worthy of response –just 3146, or 30.7%, answered the two questions on the survey:

1. When compared with pre-1800s levels, do you think that mean global temperatures have generally risen, fallen, or remained relatively constant?

2. Do you think human activity is a significant contributing factor in changing mean global temperatures?

The survey was taken in 1999, after a rapid temperature rise due to an unusually strong el nino, and nearly everybody had switched side from believing in global cooling in the 60’s to global warming, but even with that only 90% thought global temperatures had risen since the little ice age.

The second question is a little misleading for the average person. To a scientist significant means it is measurable outside the margin of error, not that it is major or even large, just that it should not be ignored. We can all agree that human activity such as clear cutting forests and turning the area into asphalt jungles will change the local climate. This is called urban heat islands. Likewise changing forests into agricultural lands tends to heat up the land by up to one degree. Air pollution tends to lower temperatures and is considered bad, adding CO2 tends to increase average global temperatures, the question is by how much and if that is good or bad.

Notice the second question did not deal at all with CO2, nor did it say anything about dominant contributing factor. Yet it is often cited in conjunction with “the 97%”

The other interesting question was: What is “the pause”

As presented by satellite data there has been no significant warming in the last 18 years and 8 months, as is seen in the following picture:18yr8monthspause

And the satellite data keep showing us this even though we are having a rather strong el nino. Without it the temperatures would be in decline.

For a discussion on “the pause” vs. “Warmest year on record” see: https://lenbilen.com/2015/10/12/obama-on-leadership-cop21-the-pause-warmest-year-on-record-the-facts/

See also: https://lenbilen.com/2014/07/01/eleven-signs-of-cooling-a-new-little-ice-age-coming/

Source for “the 97%” : http://sppiblog.org/news/that-97-solution-again

Fair weather Climate alarmists? Protest moves from Boston Commons to Ritz-Carlton. A Limerick

It rained and was cold up in Boston.
For heat, fossil fuel warms Ritz Carlton.
With the protest on the fritz
they went inside to the Ritz
What Climate Change means they are lost on.

In the Boston area, Know Tomorrow’s “Day of Action” with 17 local colleges has been moved from the Boston Common to the Ritz-Carlton Hotel because of the rain and winds, according to Politico. Massachusetts Democratic Sen. Ed Markey is set to speak to students and “implore students to build momentum for Paris and follow in the footsteps of past movements, including women’s suffrage, voting rights, and the movement to end apartheid,” Politico reports.

On 9/11 no hurricanes anywhere on earth, but there are still “Acts of God”.

The climate catastrophe prophets have predicted stronger and more frequent hurricanes. The first week of September is the peak of the hurricane season, and guess what?

No hurricanes in the Atlantic, not even tropical depressions.

In the Eastern Pacific:  Tropical cyclone activity is not expected during the next 48 hours.

In Honolulu, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center says: No tropical cyclones are expected through Sunday evening.

The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) reports:
There are no active tropical warnings in the Northwest Pacific/North Indian Ocean, Central/Eastern Pacific, or Southern Hemisphere at this time.

So, there are no hurricanes , cyclones or typhoons anywhere on earth on the day of 9/11, the day of maximum hurricane activity for 2015.

That doesn’t mean there are no “Acts of God” as defined by our insurance policies anywhere on earth.grand-mosque-lightning

In a near desert land far away from all hurricane threats a strange rainstorm emerged on 9/11.

This occurred in Mecca, in the Grand Mosque no less, a freak thunderstorm toppled a giant crane and killed 107 ‘pilgrims’ and injured 238.

The crane was owned by a German company, but the contract to expand the Grand Mosque to accommodate was run by the Bin Laden Family.

rainbow-over-ground-zero-sept.-10And over Ground Zero a sign right before sunset on Sep 10.

There are still Acts of God.

On President Obama’s visit to Alaska. Check the tree-stumps in the retreating glaciers. A Limerick.

5087-alaska-glacier-thawsPresident Obama is on a mission to Alaska to promote draconian measures to combat Climate Change. What he doesn’t know is that Alaskans see evidence of the Ice Age everywhere, and that warm and cold periods has been with Alaska since time began. He can begin studying the tree-stumps that pop up out of melting glaciers and ask himself – why?

Well, he won’t. A quote from Obama’s speech in Alaska: “If we do nothing, Alaskan temperatures are projected to rise between six and twelve degrees by the end of the century ”

On the other hand, if we do implement his draconian measures, we might lessen the temperature rise by about 0.05 degrees. *

Old tree-stumps in glaciers that shrink.

It once was much warmer – you think.

We can learn from the past

warm and cold will not last.

This doesn’t make sense?  – Seek a shrink.TreestumpsMendenhall

Background:An ancient forest which is thought to have been hidden for at least 1,000 years has been discovered beneath a melting glacier. The trees are between 1000 and 2800 years old.

Logs and stumps can be seen underneath the thawing 37 square mile Mendenhall Glacier in Alaska, with some of the trees still bearing roots and bark.

Remnants of the forest have been protruding from the river of ice, which flows into a lake near the city of Juneau for around five decades.

(Thanks to Janice Moore, Limerick Updated.)

Cut Methane 40-45%? Climate hysteria gone crazy. A Limerick

cowbackpacksA Message that EPA sent.

Cut Methane by 40%.

No more rice, no more beef,

no more milk, no more cheese.

And yet, it will not make a dent.

What is the EPA belching out now?

Let us go over the main contributors to Methane gas generation. methane_sources

The biggest contributor to Methane generation worldwide is Rice paddies, with about 20%. Of this U.S.A. has 1.2% of the worldwide rice production, so if we eliminate domestic rice production we will reduce the our Methane budget by a quarter of one percent, assuming people switch to potatoes and pasta.

Next, also about 20% of the Methane generation are wetlands. These swamps are most cherished by environmentalists, since they are spawning grounds for all kinds of life. No one seriously wants to drain all swamps anymore, so no cuts there.

Third, with about 12% are Ruminants, Methane belching from cows and people eating beans. We could make a dent in this methane production if people totally switched their diet. Maybe a fart-tax would price beef and dairy products out of the market? Don’t forget bean-tax!

Fourth is termites with about 8%. No, Orkin would not be able to handle this. Besides, Orkin uses strong poisons.

Fifth, also about 8% is Biomass burning. Our country is already doing much better than the rest of the world. Much of this burning is sticks and straws and cow-chips for the third world dinner fire.

Sixth is landfills , also about 8%. The largest landfills are already being fitted with methane recovery pipes, which is good. We may recover yet another couple of percent of the Methane budget.

Seventh is coal mining, contributes about 8% world-wide. Obama has promised to obliterate coal mining in the U.S. Unfortunately for him China is consuming over half of the world’s coal, so even if we did away with all coal mining, that would reduce the world-wide Methane budget by less than 2%.

Eighth is gas production, about 8%. The U.S. petroleum industry already burns off the methane, converting it to CO2,  or recovers it as fuel. Not so worldwide. There can be improvements there, but not more than 2% of the worldwide budget.

Next is Methane wells in the ocean bottom and algae blooms in waters over fertilized by nitrates. This is probably under-estimated at 5%. U.S. has done great strides in for example the Chesapeake Bay, but more can be done. We could possibly gain 1% in the Methane budget from ocean cleanup.

The result? No way can we reduce Methane output by 40 – 45% unless we totally change our standard of living, our eating habits and our life-style.

How much reduction in global temperature would it give us? Less than 0.1C!

It turns out that there exists methane-eating bacteria, and they grow better with increased temperature, stripping the coal atom from methane, converting the rest to methyl alcohol and digesting that too. The Arctic, rich in methane eating bacteria may well be a methane sink, not a methane source.

Any takers?

Background: NY Times, Business day:

WASHINGTON — The Obama administration is expected to propose as soon as Tuesday the first-ever federal regulation to cut emissions of methane, a powerful greenhouse gas that contributes to global warming, by the nation’s oil and natural-gas industry, officials familiar with the plan said on Monday.

The proposed rule would call for the reduction of methane emissions by 40 to 45 percent over the next decade from 2012 levels, the officials said. The proposal was widely expected, after the Environmental Protection Agency said in January that it was working on such a plan.

The new rules are part of Mr. Obama’s broad push for regulations meant to cut emissions of planet-warming gases from different sectors of the economy. This month, Mr. Obama unveiled the centerpiece of that plan, a regulation meant to cut emissions of carbon dioxide by 32 percent from 2005 levels by 2030, a move that could transform the way the nation produces and consumes electric power.

The new rules on methane could create a tougher regulatory scheme on the nation’s fossil fuel production, particularly on the way that companies extract, move and store natural gas.

Environmental advocates have long urged the Obama administration to crack down on methane emissions. Most of the greenhouse gas pollution in the United States comes from carbon dioxide, which is produced by burning coal, oil and natural gas. Methane, which leaks from oil and gas wells, accounts for just 9 percent of the nation’s greenhouse gas pollution — but it is over 20 times more potent than carbon dioxide, so even small amounts of it can have a big impact on global warming.

The oil and gas industry has resisted methane regulations, insisting that new rules could stymie a booming natural gas industry and that voluntary industrywide standards are sufficient to prevent methane leaks. Mr. Obama is pressing efforts to cut harmful emissions as he works toward forging a United Nations global warming accord in Paris in December. The aim of the accord is to commit every nation to enact policies to cut greenhouse gases. The United States has already submitted a plan to the United Nations laying out how it will cut domestic greenhouse gas emissions by up to 28 percent from 2005 levels by 2025.

CO2 reductions to solve Climate change? Wrong solution for the world. A Limerick.

Renewable energy: – Clean.

The world is so dirty and mean.

Never mind the expense

and it doesn’t make sense.

CO2 is what makes the world green.

The White House Aug 3 announced a target of 32% reduction in CO2 emission from U.S. power plants by 2030. This is a target that no existing Coal fired power plant can meet, only natural gas fired power plants. He also proposed a 70% reduction in emissions other than CO2, which has its merits.

Obama may yet succeed in his campaign promise: “Under my plan the electricity rates will necessarily skyrocket.”

Obama wants us to have as expensive electricity as Denmark and Germany, the two countries with the most wind and solar power per capita. scatterplot-electricity-cost-vs-installed-renewable-capacity-aus

The chart tells it all. Thirty Cent/ kWh in Denmark.

Us is (was?) an outlier with cheap and abundant fossil fuel and low fuel taxes.

Australia is an outlier, They are paying for implementing a carbon tax.

The President said in his announcement that last year was the warmest on record and that fourteen of the fifteen warmest years occurred in this century.

Another way of looking at the temperature record is: Last year was still one of the 700 coldest in the last 10000 years. See fig:  GISP2 Ice CoreWe have now had over ten years since the last major hurricane hit the U.S. mainland. A new record.

The rise of the oceans is partly because we are still recovering from the last Ice age. One point in Northern Sweden is rising as much as three feet per century. This and normal continental drift explains why many coastlines such as the Eastern Seaboard are sinking.