Category: environment

A response to the energy portion of the State of the Union Message.

The Energy State of the Union message.

This is a short interpretation of the President’s State of the Union message as it pertains to energy.

First the speech:

After years of talking about it, we are finally poised to control our own energy future. We produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years. We have doubled the distance our cars will go on a gallon of gas, and the amount of renewable energy we generate from sources like wind and solar – with tens of thousands of good, American jobs to show for it. We produce more natural gas than ever before – and nearly everyone’s energy bill is lower because of it. And over the last four years, our emissions of the dangerous carbon pollution that threatens our planet have actually fallen.

But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change. Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15. Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods – all are now more frequent and intense. We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it’s too late.

The good news is, we can make meaningful progress on this issue while driving strong economic growth. I urge this Congress to pursue a bipartisan, market-based solution to climate change, like the one John McCain and Joe Lieberman worked on together a few years ago. But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will. I will direct my Cabinet to come up with executive actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution, prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change, and speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy.

Four years ago, other countries dominated the clean energy market and the jobs that came with it. We’ve begun to change that. Last year, wind energy added nearly half of all new power capacity in America. So let’s generate even more. Solar energy gets cheaper by the year – so let’s drive costs down even further. As long as countries like China keep going all-in on clean energy, so must we.

In the meantime, the natural gas boom has led to cleaner power and greater energy independence. That’s why my Administration will keep cutting red tape and speeding up new oil and gas permits. But I also want to work with this Congress to encourage the research and technology that helps natural gas burn even cleaner and protects our air and water.

Indeed, much of our new-found energy is drawn from lands and waters that we, the public, own together. So tonight, I propose we use some of our oil and gas revenues to fund an Energy Security Trust that will drive new research and technology to shift our cars and trucks off oil for good. If a non-partisan coalition of CEOs and retired generals and admirals can get behind this idea, then so can we. Let’s take their advice and free our families and businesses from the painful spikes in gas prices we’ve put up with for far too long. I’m also issuing a new goal for America: let’s cut in half the energy wasted by our homes and businesses over the next twenty years. The states with the best ideas to create jobs and lower energy bills by constructing more efficient buildings will receive federal support to help make it happen.

And now for the interpretation:

“After years of talking about it, we are finally poised to control our own energy future. We produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years.”

Thanks to drilling leases approved under the Bush administration we produce more oil at home than we have in 15 years.

“ We have doubled the distance our cars will go on a gallon of gas, and the amount of renewable energy we generate from sources like wind and solar – with tens of thousands of good, American jobs to show for it. “

We are requiring future cars to double the driving distance on a gallon of gas by making them smaller and lighter. We have also doubled the amount of renewable energy from sources like solar and wind – from half a percent to a full percent of our energy need at a cost of over half a million dollar per job created.

“We produce more natural gas than ever before – and nearly everyone’s energy bill is lower because of it.”

Thanks to fracking, done nearly exclusively on private land in spite of the efforts of the EPA we produce more natural gas than ever before driving down the cost of natural gas.

“And over the last four years, our emissions of the dangerous carbon pollution that threatens our planet have actually fallen.”

Over the last four years our emissions of the dangerous carbon dioxide have actually fallen, but because of the increase in carbon dioxide the world can now feed two billion people more. Without this increase there would be mass starvation and death in the developing countries. The goal is population control according to Agenda 21, and increased levels of CO2 interferes with outr plans.

“But for the sake of our children and our future, we must do more to combat climate change.”

Our children are now facing a national debt of more than sixteen trillion dollars, in no small part by tilting at windmills.

“Yes, it’s true that no single event makes a trend. But the fact is, the 12 hottest years on record have all come in the last 15.”

Thanks to the fact that we have put weather stations on airports, on paved surfaces and in places of rapid land use changes, the measured temperatures have shown 12 of the last 15 years have been the hottest on record. It is true that urban heat islands show an increase, but temperature records for weather stations in undisturbed areas show a slight decrease.

 Heat waves, droughts, wildfires, and floods – all are now more frequent and intense.

The raging wildfires of 2012 were less than average.

The crippling drought of 2012 was less severe than the 30’s dust bowl. Remember “The Grapes of Wrath”.

Tornadoes numbered about 30% less than normal and we broke a record for consecutive days without a death from a tornado.

The number of hurricanes and their severity is down.

“We can choose to believe that Superstorm Sandy, and the most severe drought in decades, and the worst wildfires some states have ever seen were all just a freak coincidence. Or we can choose to believe in the overwhelming judgment of science – and act before it’s too late.”

Contrary to popular opinion Superstorm Sandy was an early warning of a new little ice age.

Storms are formed and driven mostly from temperature differences. The worst storm recorded on the Eastern seaboard was not Sandy. The headlines claimed the storm surge that hit the U.S. east coast during Sandy was unprecedented, and was caused by global warming. It is my contention that a more likely scenario is that it is an early warning of global cooling.

There have been two storm surges on the east coast larger than hurricane Sandy’s. They occurred in the years 1635 and 1638. Ship logs from the 1600’s also show storms were more violent during the little Ice Age. It got so cold that in 1658 the Swedish Army crossed the Great Belt in Denmark and sacked Copenhagen. The Great Belt is now nearly always ice-free.

“The good news is, we can make meaningful progress on this issue while driving strong economic growth. I urge this Congress to pursue a bipartisan, market-based solution to climate change, like the one John McCain and Joe Lieberman worked on together a few years ago.”

A few years ago John McCain and Joe Lieberman were hoodwinked into believing the IPCC panel political summaries of impending gloom. They keep scaling back their predictions since we have not have any significant increase in temperature the last 16 years while CO2 concentrations continue to increase.

“But if Congress won’t act soon to protect future generations, I will.”

I will bypass congress and use the EPA to issue crippling regulations.

“ I will direct my Cabinet to come up with executive actions we can take, now and in the future, to reduce pollution,”

I will direct my Cabinet to make new coal-fired power plant unprofitable

 “prepare our communities for the consequences of climate change,”

Our communities will be beaten into submission

 “and speed the transition to more sustainable sources of energy.”

We will continue to tilt at windmills and solar panels controlled by China, but not Nuclear Energy.

“Four years ago, other countries dominated the clean energy market and the jobs that came with it.”

Four years ago Spain went green and the unemployment rate went from 9% to 21% in just a year. It is now 26%

“We’ve begun to change that. Last year, wind energy added nearly half of all new power capacity in America.”

Thanks to making new coal-fired plants almost impossible wind energy contributed nearly half to all  increase in capacity last year – almost enough to allow the economy to grow by half a percent.

“So let’s generate even more. Solar energy gets cheaper by the year – so let’s drive costs down even further.”

Solar energy has long been the most expensive way to produce energy. Without subsidies the cost used to be more than 30 c/kWh. With subsidies we can drive the cost down all the way to 17 c/kWh.

“ As long as countries like China keep going all-in on clean energy, so must we.”

The most drastic step we have done so far is to outsource manufacturing, mostly to China. In so doing we have actually decreased our energy use while China’s is doubled, and China is now using 50% more energy than the U.S. In addition, nearly half of all coal used in the world is burned in China. Not only that, China’s coal is of the soft, brown, dirty coal variety. It is so bad that Beijing now has the highest air pollution in the world. The soot clouds are carried by the prevailing westerly winds up into the Arctic.

“In the meantime, the natural gas boom has led to cleaner power and greater energy independence. That’s why my Administration will keep cutting red tape and speeding up new oil and gas permits.”

My Administration will cut red tape and begin by opening up the Arctic Wildlife Preserve to exploration.

“But I also want to work with this Congress to encourage the research and technology that helps natural gas burn even cleaner and protects our air and water.”

Next to Hydrogen, natural gas is the cleanest burning fuel available

“Indeed, much of our new-found energy is drawn from lands and waters that we, the public, own together.”

A true energy hero, Governor Sarah Palin stood up to the Big Oil companies and instituted an oil depletion tax that was progressive, up to 70%, which she distributed to the people of Alaska rather than increasing the size of Government. Her approval rating peaked at 93%. I would like to duplicate that.

“So tonight, I propose we use some of our oil and gas revenues to fund an Energy Security Trust that will drive new research and technology to shift our cars and trucks off oil for good.”

Nah, instead of that I propose tonight we institute a crippling tax on trucks and cars to finally force them off using gas and diesel fuel.

 “If a non-partisan coalition of CEOs and retired generals and admirals can get behind this idea, then so can we.”

We cannot let a non-partisan coalition of CEOs and retired generals and admirals do this. This is a job for Big Government.

“Let’s take their advice and free our families and businesses from the painful spikes in gas prices we’ve put up with for far too long.”

Let us follow the example of Europe. Their gas prices are about eight dollars a gallon. A spike of another dollar or two would no longer matter,

 “I’m also issuing a new goal for America: let’s cut in half the energy wasted by our homes and businesses over the next twenty years.”

I propose we install smart energy meters and relays that lets us decide if you deserve air conditioning or not, or if you can run the clothes dryer in the afternoon before you go out at night.

 “The states with the best ideas to create jobs and lower energy bills by constructing more efficient buildings will receive federal support to help make it happen.”

Everybody knows that union states have the best ideas to preserve jobs, so let us promote that.

There were other gems in his speech, but this will suffice for now.

Groundhog day, Climate change and Obama’s Inauguration and State of the Union message.

Phil Punxutawneystate-of-the-union_gi_topGroundhog Day is over. Next step in prognostications of questionable value is the President’s State of the Union message. Punxsutawney Phil did not see his shadow this Feb 2. Through the ages he has seen his shadow 87% of the time and prognosticated six more weeks of winter. This year he forecast an early spring. His record is pretty good, he has been right 37% of the time.

As for the President, there has been a lot of ballyhoo about Global Warming/Climate Change/Global Climate Disruption/Climate Challenges – pick your term. Besides Al Gore who recently sold his Current TV channel to Al-Jazeera, a known champion for Mideast oil, few has been more vocal about Carbon Dioxide “pollution” than President Obama.

In his second inaugural speech there was scant mention of the economy, jobs, the impending debt crisis, overbearing regulations and loss of personal freedom. None of these things concern him. He was, however very concerned of climate change and promised a real effort to move towards sustainable energy. This is what he said:

“We will respond to the threat of climate change, knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations. Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms. ”The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult. But America cannot resist this transition; we must lead it. We cannot cede to other nations the technology that will power new jobs and new industries ­ we must claim its promise. ”That is how we will maintain our economic vitality and our national treasure ­ our forests and waterways; our croplands and snowcapped peaks.”

Let us take the statements one by one and see how well we are doing so far. He has had one full term, so the verdict is in.

“We will respond to the threat of climate change

The most drastic step we have done so far is to outsource manufacturing, mostly to China. In so doing we have actually decreased our energy use while China’s is doubled, and China is now using 50% more energy than the U.S. In addition, nearly half of all coal used in the world is burned in China. Not only that, China’s coal is of the soft, brown, dirty coal variety. It is so bad that Beijing now has the highest air pollution in the world. The soot clouds arechina_tmo_2013014 carried  by the prevailing westerly winds up into the Arctic.(More on that later) Another example of less than stellar action was the “cash for clunkers” program, where “nearly new” cars were destroyed to make room for new, more fuel efficient cars. This was a subsidy for the upper and upper middle class, since they were the only ones that could afford to upgrade. The real clunkers are still left on the road, driven by the less fortunate since the cars they had hoped to upgrade to were taken out of circulation, leading to higher prices for used cars. A true lose-lose proposition. And don’t get me started on Karma and Tesla, highly subsidized electrical play-toys for playboys.

“knowing that the failure to do so would betray our children and future generations.”

What we have done so far to betray our children and future generations is putting us in an unsustainable debt and deficit situation. Obama seems determined to follow the example of Spain. They went green, and in one year’s time their unemployment rate went from 9% to over 21%. It is now 26%. Their debt is as bad as that of Greece and we are headed that way. Our debt per person is over 52000 dollars, Greece’ is more like 47000 dollars.

“Some may still deny the overwhelming judgment of science, but none can avoid the devastating impact of raging fires, and crippling drought, and more powerful storms.”

The real threat of climate change is not so much global warming but a possible onset of a new Ice Age. Before you dismiss me as a real whacko, let me assure you that I know CO2 to be a powerful greenhouse gas, second in importance only to water vapor, and without gain or attenuation in the response of the Earth, a doubling of the CO2 levels in the atmosphere would cause a 0.9 degree C warming. As an engineer I look at the impulse response of the earth to a variation in the Sun’s effect on temperatures. There are two overwhelming impulses from the sun. They are called day and night, summer and winter.

Let us first take the tropics, since it doesn’t really have summer and winter, only day and night. In an ideal situation,Atmosphericcirculation70_zps62ce2ee6 where the sun bakes down on the surface with no clouds and the earth radiates back into space, the equilibrium temperature in the tropics would be about 140 degrees F (60C). But it isn’t, since thunderstorms and winds carry away the excessive heat from the equator towards the poles. One could say the tropical thunderstorms are the thermostat of the earth. The tropics have found its temperature. It was about the same as it is now even during the last ice-age. The absorbance spectrum of saturated water vapor covers the whole IR spectrum, so any amount of CO2 makes no difference.

But, you say, what happens at the poles? Glad you asked. The heat is carried towards the poles and comes down as rain or snow or not quite as cold air. Since many temperature stations are located on heat islands such as air ports and urban areas that have suffered significant land use change the most unchanging temperature observable is the melting point of ice.

So let us take a look at ice around the poles. The ice cap over the Antarctic is growing. Between Sep 25 and Sep 29 of antarctic_seaice_color_000last year it hit a new all-time record since measurements begun. Notice the maximum occurred more than 3 months after maximum solar influx – a 96 day delay. The southern icecap is about 700000 km2 larger than the 30 year average nowadays.

Not so the Northern icecap. For a fleeting period around Mar 25 last year it was back to the 30 year average, after that came the most rapid snow melt on record, followed by the most rapid refreezing on record. At the minimum it was about 2.8 million km2 less ice than normal, leading to a flurry of press releases of our imminent demise, and of the polar bears. By the way, the number of polar bears has doubled since its minimum. They do not mind a slightly milder climate. There is now slightly more ice in the Arctic than last year – about 700000 km2 less than the 30 year average.

So, the Arctic ice cap is shrinking, but the Antarctic ice cap is growing. Why is that? The CO2 level is the same in both places. Something else must be the cause.Arctic snow

Let me suggest: Air pollution. We have outsourced our manufacturing of steel, gypsum boards and other high energy uses to countries like China and the third world. China is by far the world’s leading polluter and the soot cloud runs all the way into the Arctic. The tell-tale sign of soot pollution is the soot in arcticmeltingpondthe bottom of the ice-ponds that form in the summer icecap, leading to a much more rapid ice-melt. This masks an inconvenient fact. It is getting colder.

In addition, because of more open water in the fall, evaporation increases and this leads to increased snowfall. Moscow has now the snowiest winter in over 100 years. Alaska broke records last year. The snow cap stretches over much of the northern hemisphere, increasing the reflection of the incoming sunlight, and that means a delayed spring.

What does this mean for us? The summers may or may not get warmer, but the winters will get colder in the temperate zone.

Storms are formed and driven mostly from temperature differences. The worst storm recorded on the Eastern seaboard was not Sandy. The headlines claimed the storm surge that hit the U.S. east coast during Sandy was unprecedented, and was caused by global warming. It is my contention that a more likely scenario is that it is an early warning of global cooling.NE_Storm_Surges

There have been two storm surges on the east coast larger than hurricane Sandy’s. They occurred in the years 1635 and 1638. Ship logs from the 1600’s also show storms were more violent during the little Ice Age. It got so cold that in 1658 the Swedish Army crossed the Great Belt in Denmark and sacked Copenhagen.  The Great Belt is now nearly always ice free.Svenskene_ut_pa_isen_maleri_av_Johan_Philip_Lemke

The raging fires of 2012 was less than average.

The crippling drought of 2012 was less severe than the 30’s dust bowl. Remember “The Grapes of Wrath”.

Tornadoes numbered about 30% less than normal and we broke a new record for consecutive days without a death from a tornado.

The number of hurricanes and their severity is down.

The solution: Increase the amount of CO2 in the air, but reduce the worldwide soot emissions.

”The path towards sustainable energy sources will be long and sometimes difficult. “

I totally agree. The regulatory environment makes it nearly impossible to go forward with such worthwhile projects as geo-thermal, thorium-based nuclear power and the like.

“But America cannot resist this transition; we must lead it. We cannot cede to other nations the technology that will power new jobs and new industries ­ we must claim its promise. “

We have already ceded the initiative in Thorium based nuclear energy to the Chinese, the Russians and the Indians. All three have active developments going including patents. Until recently China controlled 97% of the rare earth metals mining, – a national security threat. See my thorium blog posts: https://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/nuclear-power-and-earthquakes-how-to-make-it-safer-and-better/

https://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/eleven-reasons-to-switch-to-thorium-based-nuclear-power-generation/

https://lenbilen.com/2012/02/15/eleven-more-reasons-to-switch-to-thorium-as-nuclear-fuel/

Nuclear Power. Why we chose Uranium over Thorium and ended up in this mess. Time to clean up.

”That is how we will maintain our economic vitality and our national treasure ­ our forests and waterways; our croplands and snowcapped peaks.”

CO2 is a non-participant in global warming. The earth, mostly through clouds and thunderstorms has wonderful feedback mechanisms, which keep temperatures stable on the warm side. The stabilizing mechanisms grow weaker on the cold side, and normal steady state for the earth is ice age. Increasing amounts of CO2 will delay the onset of the next ice age, and in a small way reduce the severity of storms.

We have not had any statistically significant increase in global temperatures for the last 16 years but the amount of CO2 has increased by more than 10%.

Are there benefits with an increased amount of CO2?

You bet. Thanks to increased CO2 the earth can now feed an additional 2 billion people, people that had otherwise starved to death. For a doubling of CO2, plant yields increase between 40 and 70%. In addition plants use less water to do the CO2 breathing when CO2 increases. This can be seen in the vegetation line growing northward south of Sahara.

It is still not a good idea to use ethanol from corn for fuel. Cutting down the rain forests of Borneo to produce biofuel is even worse. Irrigation is sometimes good, sometimes bad. Irrigating from the rivers feeding to Lake Aral was supremely unwise. That displaced about a million and a half people.

My suggestion is to attack environmental problems regionally, especially when it comes to land use. Central planning, especially about water use and water pollution is sometimes disastrous. The worst we could do is to entrust this to UN. They apply political considerations rather than scientific and rational every time.

To protect ourselves we must take back the energy initiative from China, India and Russia. Let us use scientific facts this time and not again succumb to political rhetoric.

A new record for ice cover in Antarctica. More CO2, please.

A record is set for Antarctica’s ice (1)

A truth inconvenient, but this will suffice. (2)

To nix the decision

“Curb carbon emission” (3)

CO2 is the gas to grow corn, wheat and rice. (4)

(1)    The total ice cover in Antarctica set a new all time record. According to NOAA’s Sea Ice Extent it turns out day 265 set an all time record, and then day 266 (Sept 22nd) broke that record. Days 265 through 270 are now the 6 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)! 11 of the top 15 extents are now in 2012.

(2)  A) In the Antarctic, at the time of maximum sea ice extents, the “edge” of the sea ice very closely approximates a “crown” around the continent between latitudes 60 south and 62 south. At those latitudes, ANY increase in Antarctic Sea Ice extents will significantly increase energy reflections from the ice, and reduce the absorption of energy from the sun into the newly covered ocean waters. The result – of ANTARCTIC sea ice maximums expanding – is increased heat loss from the earth into space, and decreased global temperatures.

B) In the Arctic, on the other hand, all of the sea ice is now concentrated in a single “Beanie” cap around the north pole. This cap can be very closely approximated as a cap extending from the pole down to latitude 80 degrees (for 4 million km^2 sea ice) or to 81 degrees for today’s 3.4 million km^2 sea ice extents.

However, at those very high latitudes, during the time of minimum sea ice extents at the equinox, more energy is lost from the exposed ocean surface by radiation into space and evaporation (both of which will begin as soon as the sea ice “insulation” is melted out) than is gained by the ocean surface absorbing sunlight. NOTE: This effect, the reverse of the conventional CAGW alarmism about sea ice albedo! – is ONLY true for the far north latitudes. But, then again, those are the only latitudes where sea ice exists at the present minimum, so it is pointless and distracting and wrong to worry about any other latitudes …. FOR ARCTIC SEA ICE.

(3)    Conventional “wisdom” according to IPCC dictates that there is a strong positive feedback between CO2 levels and global temperatures, so that a doubling of CO2 would yield a global temperature increase of between 3 and 5 degree Celsius. If there was no gain in the system, a doubling of CO2 levels would cause a 0.9 degree increase. However, there is a strong negative feedback due to changes in the cloud cover and associated thunderstorms so the net effect is an increase of the global temperature of no more than 0.3 degree C. This can be verified by calculations using a simple observation of the earth’s temperature response to the varying amount of solar influx in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere over a year.

(4)    For every doubling of CO2 levels the trees, plants and grass will increase their growth by 30 to 70% dependent on the species. This effect will level off at about 1200 ppm, so we can use this effect to feed an additional two billion people, or alleviate the starving that is already occurring.

Conclusion: We need more CO2, not less, to help feed the world and  stave off the coming Ice-age for a little longer.

 

Tornadoes and hurricanes at a low thanks to increased CO2 levels? A Limerick.

Tornadoes and hurricanes: At a new low (1) (2)

The CO2 calms them, as far as we know (3)

So the crop yields increase (4)

And the starving will cease. (5)

More CO2, please, let the trees and plants grow. (6)

(1)    Total tornado activity in 2012 is way below normal, See fig.

(2)    The number of days since a major hurricane hit the U.S. mainland is at a record, 2523 days (and counting) since hurricane Wilma hit the Gulf Coast in 2005. This is the longest stretch since hurricane tracking begun.

(3)    This point is controversial. According to IPCC there is a positive feedback between greenhouse gases and temperature increase. This assumption is proven false by the absence of global temperature increase since 2001.

The opposite argument is true. There is a strong negative feedback between increasing CO2 and temperature, so the net effect is that the tropic experience almost no temperature increase, the Northern Hemisphere an increase of 0.4 degrees, and the Southern Hemisphere an increase of about 0.2 degree Celsius for a doubling of the CO2 concentration. This increase is concentrated mostly around the poles causing less of a temperature gradient between the poles and the equator, which give the storms less energy to sustain them.

Total hurricane energy is on a decline since the active years 2005-2006. 2012 is no exception with only one major hurricane (for 12 hours) way out in the Atlantic.

(4)     There is a strong correlation between CO2 concentration and crop yields, with a 30 to 70 % increase for a doubling of CO2.

(5)    Assuming a 50% average increase in yield the world can feed two billion more mouths with a doubling in CO2.

(6)    In addition, when CO2 increases the plants use photosynthesis more efficiently, needing less water to produce a crop making even arid areas able to yield a crop.

 

Forecast of drought in Britain brings record April showers. Time to change climate models?

It is hard to make predictions – especially about the future (Yogi Berra, Niels Bohr, et al.)

The Met Office has caused a storm of controversy after it was revealed their £30million supercomputer designed to predict climate change is one of Britain’s worst polluters.
The massive machine – the UK’s most powerful computer with a whopping 15 million megabytes of memory – was installed in the Met Office’s headquarters in Exeter, Devon.
With a total peak performance approaching 1 PetaFlop — equivalent to over 100,000 PCs and over 30 times more powerful than what was in place before. It is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second to feed data to 400 scientists and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.

So what glorious new and accurate information are they producing now?

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12

SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period. The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 197-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

CONTEXT:
As a legacy of dry weather over many months water resources in much
of southern, eastern and central England remain at very low levels.
Winter rainfall in these areas has typically been about 70% of average,
whilst observations and current forecasts suggest that the final totals for
March will be below average here too. The Environment Agency advises
that, given the current state of soils and groundwater levels in these
areas, drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.

That was the prediction.

Ho well did they do?

Here is the result for April 2012:

2012 had wettest April for 100 years, Met Office says.

It has been the wettest April in the UK for over 100 years, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show.

 

I am really impressed by their newfound forecasting ability.
So impressed I have written new lyrics to Merle Travis song: Sixteen tons (Popularized by Tennessee Ernie Ford)

Some people say people are made outta mud
Alarmists and warmists, they’re chewing their cud,
Chewing their cud and follow Al Gore
A mind that’s a-weak can you ask for much more?

More than one megawatt, and what did they get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

They came in one mornin’ when the sun didn’t shine
They picked up their papers and continued the grind
They had sixteen conditions, mostly falsified bull
And the straw boss said “Well, a-bless my soul”.

More than one megawatt, and what did they get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

They came in one mornin’, it was drizzelin’ rain
their prognoses had failed them again and again
The boss harshly told them, You will do many more
Do as I tell you, and agree with Al Gore.

More than one megawatt, and what did they get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

The threatenin’ drought, it just didn’t last.
and hidin’ the warming that occurred in the past
Their ol’ man Mann and his hockey stick.
Conditions like that nothing ever will click.

More than one megawatt, and what did they get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

(Here is an older version of the song:)

Wind farms warming and tilting at windmills. A limerick

Wind farms can cause climate change, according to new research, that shows for the first time the new technology is already pushing up temperatures.

Usually at night the air closer to the ground becomes colder when the sun goes down and the earth cools. But on huge wind farms the motion of the turbines mixes the air higher in the atmosphere that is warmer, pushing up the overall temperature.

Satellite data over a large area in Texas, that is now covered by four of the world’s largest wind farms, found that over a decade the local temperature went up by almost 1 degreeC as more turbines are built. This could have long term effects on wildlife living in the immediate areas of larger wind farms. It could also affect regional weather patterns as warmer areas affect the formation of cloud and even wind speeds.

 

“You just can’t ignore the laws of thermodynamics, and ANY energy conversion will involve waste heat dumped to the environment. The only question is the size of the numbers.”

All the wind farms are warming the earth; this we know.

Electricity gained? Not a whole lot to show.

The green power decrees

heat the earth by degrees.

Their quixotic pursuit has been dealt a big blow.

 

Obama in Oklahoma claims credit for half a pipeline. A Limerick.

Obama as president: he is not fit.

Approves half a pipeline: he is a half-wit.

The way he refuses

With lots of excuses.

His own credibility took yet a hit.

This morning in Cushing, Oklahoma, in front of a stack of steel pipes stored for construction of the most Southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline, President Obama delivered a short message to a few busloads of loyal supporters, mostly women. Spring break could have something to do with that. There were also a much larger number of protestors kept out of range booing the speech as they listened to a live feed.

The President tried to claim credit for this segment of the pipeline. The trouble is, it was going to start in June anyway since it already had and only needed State and Army Corps of Engineers approval. The stacks of stored pipes bear witness of the imminent start of construction. No presidential approval was needed. The speech contained his usual mantra that we must wean ourselves off dependency on fossil fuels and go green, which in a way contradicts his eagerness to claim credit for something that is being built despite his efforts

The gas-price run-up. Blame the Republicans! So says Obama. A Limerick.

At a campaign event in Coral Gables, Florida, President Obama says Republicans see rising gas prices as a “political opportunity” and they are “licking their chops.”

Obama didn’t stop there. “They greet bad news so enthusiastically,” he added.

“Some politicians, they see this as a political opportunity. I know you’re shocked by that. Last week the lead story in one newspaper said, ‘Gasoline prices are on the rise and Republicans are licking their chops.’ That’s a quote. That’s the lead. Licking their chops. Only in politics do people root for bad news. They greet bad news so enthusiastically,” Obama said.

Where did the quote “Licking their chops” come from? To the best of my research it was an opinion piece in Politico. Enough said.

Maybe not enough. There were four times as many negative news stories about the gas price run-up during the Bush administration as there are now.

 

As blame-shifting goes, is Obama’s the tops?

“Republicans fault, they are licking their chops.”

With gas-prices rising.

Our world view despising:

To hold on to power he pulls all the stops.