Category: environment

A new record for ice cover in Antarctica. More CO2, please.

A record is set for Antarctica’s ice (1)

A truth inconvenient, but this will suffice. (2)

To nix the decision

“Curb carbon emission” (3)

CO2 is the gas to grow corn, wheat and rice. (4)

(1)    The total ice cover in Antarctica set a new all time record. According to NOAA’s Sea Ice Extent it turns out day 265 set an all time record, and then day 266 (Sept 22nd) broke that record. Days 265 through 270 are now the 6 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)! 11 of the top 15 extents are now in 2012.

(2)  A) In the Antarctic, at the time of maximum sea ice extents, the “edge” of the sea ice very closely approximates a “crown” around the continent between latitudes 60 south and 62 south. At those latitudes, ANY increase in Antarctic Sea Ice extents will significantly increase energy reflections from the ice, and reduce the absorption of energy from the sun into the newly covered ocean waters. The result – of ANTARCTIC sea ice maximums expanding – is increased heat loss from the earth into space, and decreased global temperatures.

B) In the Arctic, on the other hand, all of the sea ice is now concentrated in a single “Beanie” cap around the north pole. This cap can be very closely approximated as a cap extending from the pole down to latitude 80 degrees (for 4 million km^2 sea ice) or to 81 degrees for today’s 3.4 million km^2 sea ice extents.

However, at those very high latitudes, during the time of minimum sea ice extents at the equinox, more energy is lost from the exposed ocean surface by radiation into space and evaporation (both of which will begin as soon as the sea ice “insulation” is melted out) than is gained by the ocean surface absorbing sunlight. NOTE: This effect, the reverse of the conventional CAGW alarmism about sea ice albedo! – is ONLY true for the far north latitudes. But, then again, those are the only latitudes where sea ice exists at the present minimum, so it is pointless and distracting and wrong to worry about any other latitudes …. FOR ARCTIC SEA ICE.

(3)    Conventional “wisdom” according to IPCC dictates that there is a strong positive feedback between CO2 levels and global temperatures, so that a doubling of CO2 would yield a global temperature increase of between 3 and 5 degree Celsius. If there was no gain in the system, a doubling of CO2 levels would cause a 0.9 degree increase. However, there is a strong negative feedback due to changes in the cloud cover and associated thunderstorms so the net effect is an increase of the global temperature of no more than 0.3 degree C. This can be verified by calculations using a simple observation of the earth’s temperature response to the varying amount of solar influx in the Northern and Southern Hemisphere over a year.

(4)    For every doubling of CO2 levels the trees, plants and grass will increase their growth by 30 to 70% dependent on the species. This effect will level off at about 1200 ppm, so we can use this effect to feed an additional two billion people, or alleviate the starving that is already occurring.

Conclusion: We need more CO2, not less, to help feed the world and  stave off the coming Ice-age for a little longer.

 

Tornadoes and hurricanes at a low thanks to increased CO2 levels? A Limerick.

Tornadoes and hurricanes: At a new low (1) (2)

The CO2 calms them, as far as we know (3)

So the crop yields increase (4)

And the starving will cease. (5)

More CO2, please, let the trees and plants grow. (6)

(1)    Total tornado activity in 2012 is way below normal, See fig.

(2)    The number of days since a major hurricane hit the U.S. mainland is at a record, 2523 days (and counting) since hurricane Wilma hit the Gulf Coast in 2005. This is the longest stretch since hurricane tracking begun.

(3)    This point is controversial. According to IPCC there is a positive feedback between greenhouse gases and temperature increase. This assumption is proven false by the absence of global temperature increase since 2001.

The opposite argument is true. There is a strong negative feedback between increasing CO2 and temperature, so the net effect is that the tropic experience almost no temperature increase, the Northern Hemisphere an increase of 0.4 degrees, and the Southern Hemisphere an increase of about 0.2 degree Celsius for a doubling of the CO2 concentration. This increase is concentrated mostly around the poles causing less of a temperature gradient between the poles and the equator, which give the storms less energy to sustain them.

Total hurricane energy is on a decline since the active years 2005-2006. 2012 is no exception with only one major hurricane (for 12 hours) way out in the Atlantic.

(4)     There is a strong correlation between CO2 concentration and crop yields, with a 30 to 70 % increase for a doubling of CO2.

(5)    Assuming a 50% average increase in yield the world can feed two billion more mouths with a doubling in CO2.

(6)    In addition, when CO2 increases the plants use photosynthesis more efficiently, needing less water to produce a crop making even arid areas able to yield a crop.

 

Forecast of drought in Britain brings record April showers. Time to change climate models?

It is hard to make predictions – especially about the future (Yogi Berra, Niels Bohr, et al.)

The Met Office has caused a storm of controversy after it was revealed their £30million supercomputer designed to predict climate change is one of Britain’s worst polluters.
The massive machine – the UK’s most powerful computer with a whopping 15 million megabytes of memory – was installed in the Met Office’s headquarters in Exeter, Devon.
With a total peak performance approaching 1 PetaFlop — equivalent to over 100,000 PCs and over 30 times more powerful than what was in place before. It is capable of 1,000 billion calculations every second to feed data to 400 scientists and uses 1.2 megawatts of energy to run – enough to power more than 1,000 homes.

So what glorious new and accurate information are they producing now?

Met Office 3-month Outlook
Period: April – June 2012 Issue date: 23.03.12

SUMMARY – PRECIPITATION:
The forecast for average UK rainfall slightly favours drier than average conditions for April-May-June as a whole, and also slightly favours April being the driest of the 3 months. With this forecast, the water resources situation in southern, eastern and central England is likely to deteriorate further during the April-May-June period. The probability that UK precipitation for April-May-June will fall into the driest of our five categories is 20-25% whilst the probability that it will fall into the wettest of our five categories is 10-15% (the 197-2000 climatological probability for each of these categories is 20%).

CONTEXT:
As a legacy of dry weather over many months water resources in much
of southern, eastern and central England remain at very low levels.
Winter rainfall in these areas has typically been about 70% of average,
whilst observations and current forecasts suggest that the final totals for
March will be below average here too. The Environment Agency advises
that, given the current state of soils and groundwater levels in these
areas, drought impacts in the coming months are virtually inevitable.

That was the prediction.

Ho well did they do?

Here is the result for April 2012:

2012 had wettest April for 100 years, Met Office says.

It has been the wettest April in the UK for over 100 years, with some areas seeing three times their usual average, figures from the Met Office show.

 

I am really impressed by their newfound forecasting ability.
So impressed I have written new lyrics to Merle Travis song: Sixteen tons (Popularized by Tennessee Ernie Ford)

Some people say people are made outta mud
Alarmists and warmists, they’re chewing their cud,
Chewing their cud and follow Al Gore
A mind that’s a-weak can you ask for much more?

More than one megawatt, and what did they get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

They came in one mornin’ when the sun didn’t shine
They picked up their papers and continued the grind
They had sixteen conditions, mostly falsified bull
And the straw boss said “Well, a-bless my soul”.

More than one megawatt, and what did they get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

They came in one mornin’, it was drizzelin’ rain
their prognoses had failed them again and again
The boss harshly told them, You will do many more
Do as I tell you, and agree with Al Gore.

More than one megawatt, and what did they get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

The threatenin’ drought, it just didn’t last.
and hidin’ the warming that occurred in the past
Their ol’ man Mann and his hockey stick.
Conditions like that nothing ever will click.

More than one megawatt, and what did they get?
Another prognosis and deeper in debt
Saint Peter don’t you call ’em ’cause you must let ‘em be
They sold their souls to the IPCC.

(Here is an older version of the song:)

Wind farms warming and tilting at windmills. A limerick

Wind farms can cause climate change, according to new research, that shows for the first time the new technology is already pushing up temperatures.

Usually at night the air closer to the ground becomes colder when the sun goes down and the earth cools. But on huge wind farms the motion of the turbines mixes the air higher in the atmosphere that is warmer, pushing up the overall temperature.

Satellite data over a large area in Texas, that is now covered by four of the world’s largest wind farms, found that over a decade the local temperature went up by almost 1 degreeC as more turbines are built. This could have long term effects on wildlife living in the immediate areas of larger wind farms. It could also affect regional weather patterns as warmer areas affect the formation of cloud and even wind speeds.

 

“You just can’t ignore the laws of thermodynamics, and ANY energy conversion will involve waste heat dumped to the environment. The only question is the size of the numbers.”

All the wind farms are warming the earth; this we know.

Electricity gained? Not a whole lot to show.

The green power decrees

heat the earth by degrees.

Their quixotic pursuit has been dealt a big blow.

 

Obama in Oklahoma claims credit for half a pipeline. A Limerick.

Obama as president: he is not fit.

Approves half a pipeline: he is a half-wit.

The way he refuses

With lots of excuses.

His own credibility took yet a hit.

This morning in Cushing, Oklahoma, in front of a stack of steel pipes stored for construction of the most Southern leg of the Keystone XL pipeline, President Obama delivered a short message to a few busloads of loyal supporters, mostly women. Spring break could have something to do with that. There were also a much larger number of protestors kept out of range booing the speech as they listened to a live feed.

The President tried to claim credit for this segment of the pipeline. The trouble is, it was going to start in June anyway since it already had and only needed State and Army Corps of Engineers approval. The stacks of stored pipes bear witness of the imminent start of construction. No presidential approval was needed. The speech contained his usual mantra that we must wean ourselves off dependency on fossil fuels and go green, which in a way contradicts his eagerness to claim credit for something that is being built despite his efforts

The gas-price run-up. Blame the Republicans! So says Obama. A Limerick.

At a campaign event in Coral Gables, Florida, President Obama says Republicans see rising gas prices as a “political opportunity” and they are “licking their chops.”

Obama didn’t stop there. “They greet bad news so enthusiastically,” he added.

“Some politicians, they see this as a political opportunity. I know you’re shocked by that. Last week the lead story in one newspaper said, ‘Gasoline prices are on the rise and Republicans are licking their chops.’ That’s a quote. That’s the lead. Licking their chops. Only in politics do people root for bad news. They greet bad news so enthusiastically,” Obama said.

Where did the quote “Licking their chops” come from? To the best of my research it was an opinion piece in Politico. Enough said.

Maybe not enough. There were four times as many negative news stories about the gas price run-up during the Bush administration as there are now.

 

As blame-shifting goes, is Obama’s the tops?

“Republicans fault, they are licking their chops.”

With gas-prices rising.

Our world view despising:

To hold on to power he pulls all the stops.

Will we pass an energy bill finally? A Limerick.

Gov. Sarah Palin tweeted February 17, 2012:

“SarahPalinUSA: House passes energy bill. Will Pres. Obama & Senate Democrat leadership ignore it while Americans face $4 a gallon gas?

The House on Thursday evening passed a bill that seeks to encourage oil shale development, drilling in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge (ANWR), and offshore drilling in the Atlantic, Pacific and the Gulf of Mexico, as well as force approval of the Keystone XL oil sands pipeline.

The House approved the bill on a mostly party line vote of 237-187.

 

On eight occasions, the current occupant of the White House (Obama) has referred to the Spanish model as an example to follow.

After a leaked Spanish government report, a newspaper in Spain (La Gaceta) confirms that the country’s “green economy” policies — the model for the Obama administration’s “green jobs” efforts — have been a disaster: expensive, ineffective, and unworkable

The official jobless rate in Spain went from 7.9% in May 2007 to 19% in Nov 2009. It now stands at 22.8% (Jan 2012)

The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (Spanish: Partido Socialista Obrero Español [parˈtiðo soθjaˈlista oˈβrero espaˈɲol], PSOE [peˈsoe]) is a social-democratic political party in Spain. Since the General election on 14 March 2004, the PSOE has been the governing party of Spain. The PSOE is a full member of the Party of European Socialists and the Socialist International.

MADRID — Spaniards struggling with high unemployment and a credit squeeze delivered a punishing verdict on almost eight years of Socialist government at the ballot box on Nov 20 2011, turning to the conservative Popular Party in the hopes of alleviating the pain of Europe’s debt crisis. The Popular Party, led by Mariano Rajoy won 186 seats and a governing majority in the 350-seat lower house of Parliament, while the governing Socialists plummeted to 110 seats from 169. It was the Popular Party’s best showing, and the Socialists’ worst, since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

Jan 27 2012 Fitch Ratings has resolved the Negative Rating Watch on six Eurozone sovereigns, downgrading the IDRs for Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain while affirming ratings for Ireland. The Negative Outlook on all six countries indicates a slightly greater than 50% chance of a downgrade over a two-year time horizon.

Oh, and gasoline in Spain is upwards of $5.75 a gallon.

 

Obama: Let’s follow the path set by Spain.

Will the Senators block common sense once again?

Sarah Palin makes sense

She is not on the fence:

Live free! Independence again let’s attain!

Rand Paul at congressional hearing. A limerick.

The wormlight is good for us I have been told.

Soon it’s the only light left to be sold.

Our future seems stark

We’re held in the dark.

With no more of drilling we’re left in the cold.

.

Complain ‘bout the loo-flush was what he did do,

Others chimed in, “ours don’t work well too”

But Paul was unfazed

Eyebrows were raised

For he dared to say: You dumb bureaucrats, Boo!