2013, the year with the fewest tornadoes on record and no major hurricanes making landfall.

2013, the year with the fewest tornadoes on record and no major hurricanes making landfall.

In their desire to sensationalize natural disasters the typhoon Haiyan/Yolanda is billed by the media as the most powerful typhoon ever. Yet it was only a category 4 typhoon at landfall. The higher speeds were estimated from satellite images. Now, its eye and size was enormous, so the damage from the storm-surge was much larger than the wind damage. Likewise, Super-storm Sandy wasn’t even a hurricane at landfall, but the storm-surge was the third largest recorded on the east coast, the other two occurring during the little ice age.

Likewise, the recent tornado outbreak in the Midwest with 82 tornadoes in one day in November is the fourth largest outbreak on record, but the total number of tornadoes for the year is the fewest ever recorded.

Both are used to advocate the case for global warming, but I maintain that the case for global cooling makes for the stronger case.

The number of strong typhoons in the Pacific is decreasing, (maybe only temporary, the future is hard to predict) see Figure.typhoons

The number of strong hurricanes in the North Atlantic is at 0 for a record time span.

 229a8-daysbtcat3plus2014

The number of tornadoes is at a record low for 2013 (even with the 82 tornadoes of Nov 17 included).

torngraph-big

These figures indicate that we are in a sweet spot as to the frequency of natural disasters. As the temperatures keep falling we will experience even fewer hurricanes and typhoons, but the spring and fall storms may be more severe since the temperature difference between the Arctic and the Tropics is increasing. (The temperature in the tropical doldrums stays more or less constant thanks to the thermostat effect of thunderstorms.)

You don’t believe me? Check out the growth in Antarctic ice and the reversal of the Arctic Ice decrease. (The freezing point of water is a constant, so if if the ice is growing it must get colder.)

antarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2013_day_291_1981-20101icecover_current_new2

The solution to the global cooling? There is no solution. We are at the mercy of the sun, which is entering a 40 or more year cycle of less activity.

We can lessen the impact of the cooling by encouraging CO2 emissions. The increase in CO2 has a very positive effect on the environment, making plants grow better, using less water in the process, and water is often the limiting factor in plant growth. This is already showing up in satellite data proving the planet is getting greener. This is good for both Flora and Fauna. In addition the Spring and Fall storms will be less severe. Oh, and a planet with more vegetation is less prone to erosion. And it staves off starvation for both man and beast. Good news all around.

On the other hand, issues like using prime farmland to produce ethanol from corn, cutting down the rain forests of Borneo to produce bio-fuel, real air pollution, water pollution, mining concerns and recycling still remain, so there is much to do to ensure we leave this earth a better place than we entered it.

The train-wreck that is Obama-care. A Song.

Train-wreck, train-wreck, I despair. Train-wrecked is Obama-care.obamacarestamp

Website broke beyond repair.  It is Obama-scare.

 

I’ll be lost without health-care, Go without I would not dare

My old plans don’t have a prayer, too good to be deemed fair.

 

Cost is more than doubled too. No, Sebelius, that won’t do.

But her attitude comes through: “I do not work for you”.

 

Crony-ism to the sky, Obama gave his reason why:

“No-one is more mad than I.” Wasn’t  that a true reply?

 

Train-wreck, train-wreck, I despair. Train-wrecked is Obama-scare.

Common sense was never there.  But Obama doesn’t care.

A new little ice age is looming! Ten days in new all time record for ice in the Antartics! A Limerick.

NSIDC.org is back in business after the partial government shutdown and published its daily satellite data for ice in the southern hemisphere.

Ten days record ice set down under.

The IPCC torn asunder.

For the Ice does not lie.

Kiss the warming good-bye.

It’s worse than a crime, it’s a blunder.

.

In 2012 NOAA’s South Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent set a new all time record with 11 of the 12 highest levels ever recorded.

These are the top 12 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)!

11 of the top 12 extents are now in 2013!

This must be an inconvenient truth since NOAA isn’t mentioning it.

Day        year       ice extent (million sq. km)

273         2013       19.57088  (Oct 1)

264         2013       19.51394

257         2013       19.51234

270         2013       19.50797

258         2013       19.48591

263         2013       19.48309

269         2013       19.47161

274         2013       19.46862

265         2013       19.46830

260         2013       19.45470

266         2012       19.45418

262         2013       19.45109antarctic_sea_ice_extent_zoomed_2013_day_291_1981-20101

Finally, the ice is melting, three weeks after spring has started in Antarctica, but the icepack is 1.1 million square kilometers (around 6 %) above the 30 year average

Solveig’s song

A week ago I became grandfather again. This time it was a spunky 4 pound 11 ounces little girl with amazing strength and cuter than anything I had seen before, but then again, I am only a grandfather.  My daughter-in law has always been fascinated with the Nordic and the music of Grieg, so they named her Solveig, and she came out singing for her food. So I checked the you-tube for Grieg’s Peer Gynt, specifically Solveig’s Song, and this is what I found.Solveig

The girl, Tomine Eide is an 11 year old Norwegian and this rendition moves me more than any mature, world renown soprano ever could. Listen for yourselves:

Here are the lyrics for Solveig’s song. (The girl is singing in the original Norwegian).

The winter may pass and the spring disappear
The spring disappear
The summer too will vanish and then the year
And then the year
But this I know for certain: you’ll come back again
You’ll come back again
And even as I promised you’ll find me waiting then
You’ll find me waiting then

Oh-oh-oh ….

God help you when wand’ring your way all alone
Your way all alone
God grant to you his strength as you’ll kneel at his throne
As you’ll kneel at his throne
If you are in heaven now waiting for me
In heaven for me
And we shall meet again love and never parted be
And never parted be!

Oh-oh-oh ….

Nine days in all time record territory for Ice in Antarctica so far this year! A Limerick.

(update: Sep 30 came in with the 3:rd highest level ever at 19.50483 million square km of ice in Antarctica. October first NASA shut down so we do not know if October first was in record territory)

.

The Ice is still growing down under.

The IPCC torn asunder.

For the Ice does not lie.

Kiss the warming good-bye.

It’s worse than a crime, it’s a blunder.

.

In 2012 NOAA’s South Hemisphere Sea Ice Extent set a new record with 11 of the 15 highest levels ever recorded.

These are the data so far for 2013 (the Ice Extent is still rising, and it is spring in Antarctica)

The top 10 highest Antarctic Sea Ice Extent’s of all time (in the satellite record)!

9 of the top 10 extents are now in 2013!

This must be an inconvenient truth since NOAA isn’t mentioning it.

Day        year       ice extent (million sq. km)

264         2013       19.51394

257         2013       19.51234

270         2013       19.50797

258         2013       19.48591

263         2013       19.48309

269         2013       19.47161

265         2013       19.46830

260         2013       19.45470

266         2012       19.45418

262         2013       19.45109

The chart:

S_stddev_timeseriesSep30

S_bm_extent_hiresSep30

Learn from the Amish! Phase out the CFL light bulb!

Learn from the Amish! Phase out the CFL light bulb!

The Lord leads in mysterious ways. In 2001 we moved to Lancaster County, Pennsylvania, Leacock Township no less, the township with the highest Amish population anywhere. The soil was worked by horses and mules, the buggies were everywhere and the clotheslines revealed their plain clothes waving in the wind.

007a

( Figure 1. An Amish clothes-line from Kishacoquillas Valley, Pennsylvania)

We had built a house in a development bordering an Amish farm and an Amish homestead. One of the most pleasant sounds is when Amish youth get together for an evening gathering, singing their hymns without instruments and especially without amps. One ethereal evening I sat at our porch listening to their pure voices.

011a

( Figure 2 View from our backyard. Notice the work shop/ horse stall to the right. The second story is a gathering room for church and youth meetings)

They started in the key of F#, and an hour and a half later, their singing ended in the key of F#, beautiful three or 4 part singing from memory all the way, since it was getting dark and they did not use electricity.

Most people think the Amish shun electricity so they can continue to live like they did in the eighteenth century, a time when their forefathers came over to escape religious prosecution. Nothing could be further from the truth. Electricity comes from the grid, and that makes them connected to and dependent on the English, as they call us, and that is to be avoided at all cost. So, telephones are forbidden, but cellphones are o.k.  They do obey all laws, so when the Federal Government mandated the use of headlights for their buggies they complied. They tried the normal gaslights first, but the cotton stockings are sensitive to vibrations, and the old kerosene lamps did not give enough light so they were forced to use automotive headlights. This requires a car battery, and they had to recharge their car batteries all the time, but where to get the electricity to charge them? The English are always happy to charge their batteries for a fee, but the Amish do not like to part with their money, especially not to the English.

What to do? There must be a better light source somewhere, the need is there and the Amish must obey the law. So an enterprising Amishman, Elam S. Beiler turned to Silicon Valley and fitted a white LED light into a car headlight, and the first commercially available LED car headlight was mounted  not on a car but on an Amish buggy. This invention had several advantages. The light is superior, lifetime forever and a battery charge gives 100 hours of light instead of about eight hours. But they still had to pay the English for charging the batteries. The Amish did this while the EPA was busy forcing down CFL lights on the rest of us using the excuse that “carbon pollution” is worse than Mercury  pollution.

Last year we moved to State College, home of the Penn State Lions, a town where the Obama stickers are everywhere on their Priuses, bike paths are everywhere, the backyards are clean and neat, beautiful  parks dot the hills with manicured lawns and flower beds, but we could find no clothes lines. We had built a new home in a zoned neighborhood, no clotheslines allowed, an energy efficient “energy star“ home where every light is of the CFL type, and a light post is mandatory.

This post light was equipped with 3 candelabra style CFL light bulbs, and – you guessed it, they all failed after eight months.

This got me thinking. Could we learn from the Amish?  They still shun grid power, but they are not above taking advantage of opportunities. The Government is promoting solar panels with all kinds of tax credits, and they make sense for the Amish since they are going to use them for charging their car batteries.  So, up comes the solar panels on the top of their work shops, and add a wind generator for cloudy days, and their problem is solved.

amishpanels

(Figure 3. A gathering in a newly built Amish homestead. Notice the solar panels and small windmill on the roof of the outbuilding)

One thing leads to another, and next thing you know is to take a car battery and a headlight into the house and use for lightning. After all, it gives a much better light than a kerosene lamp for less money, so why not use it? Then why not wire up the house with 12 v power and plug in 12 V LED lights?  It surely makes sense for the Amish. They are seeing the light, and are still independent of the power grid.

Does this make sense for us?

001003 (Figure 4 and 5. The experimental post light. The CFL light is now warmed up enough to give an equivalent shine. From left to right : LED, incandescent, CFL)

I am running an experiment with the post light, one light is a 40 W incandescent light,  one is a 9 W CFL light and one is a 4.5 W LED light.  Yesterday, the EPA came out with new guidelines for power plants. They with make it unprofitable to make new coal fired plants, so electricity costs will “necessarily skyrocket “, as then Senator Obama so succinctly put it, so energy conservation is now more important than ever if we are to balance our household budgets.  We could start by allowing drying the wash by the sun again. That would save a few kilowatt-hours per day, but that would also make too much sense.

The EPA has been promoting the CFL lights to conserve energy.  There are many things wrong with the CFL lights. They take a long time to warm up, up to 10 min to give full light output, so they make no sense in a bathroom or a closet where you only spend a few minutes, but during that time you want a full light to read the comics or fix your hair. They also have only so many turn on and off cycles before they fail. When they fail they sometimes explode in the base, break and splat mercury all over the nursery, so you have to deep clean or replace the carpet. They take cold temperatures badly, so they should not be used outdoors (I have 5 outdoor CFL lights thanks to energy star).  You are supposed to recycle your broken CFL lights, but most end up in household trash.U.S. landfills are releasing more than 4 tons of mercury annually into the atmosphere and storm water runoff, according to a study in the Journal of the Air and Waste Management Assn.

Incandescent light has only two problems, high energy use and short life. But they cost less.

LEDs are expensive, but their cost is coming down, and they never die, they just fade with time. The announced lifetime is when their light output is down to 70% of the light it once had. They work everywhere except in unvented fixtures, such as hall lights. If they overheat they fail promptly.

So, which light should I use?

For the post light let us consider the three alternatives

Light type            Price      Lifetime               W            energy/yr            bulbs/yr.              Cost/yr

Incandescent     1.50        2000 hrs               40           175 KWh                2                           $20.50

CFL                      7.00        3000 hrs               9              40 KWh                 1.5                         $14.50

LED                     5.00     15000 hrs                4.5          20 KWh                 0.3                           $6.5

It is clear. The LED light is the winner hand over fist.

Bathroom light

Light type            Price      Lifetime               W            energy/yr            bulbs/yr.              Cost/yr

Incandescent     1.50        2000 hrs               40           15 KWh                 0.2                          $1.80

CFL                       7.00        7000 hrs or          9             3.5 KWh               0.25                        $2.00

.                                            5000 cycles

LED                     15.00     15000 hrs             4.5          1.7 KW                  0.02                        $0.47

Here the clear winner is the LED light. Second place goes to the incandescent light bulb. The CFL light is a poor choice even for economy.

Phase out the CFL lights! Follow the Amish! The Amish are more with it than the EPA!!

What global warming? New record for Antarctic ice Sep 14 2013.

The data is only preliminary, but it tends to indicate the Antarctic ice sheet is hitting a new record this year since measures began, after hitting a record last year Sep 25 – 29. The new record was set Sep 14 2013 at 19.52 million sqkm. the old record was set 19.44 sqkm, set two weeks later in the yearly cycle.  This fig shows the extent of the ice and indicates this year’s ice is above last year and outside the 2 sigma for the 30 year average.

S_stddev_timeseries

The Antarctic ice cap is impressive this year.

 

S_bm_extent_hires

 

 

Shh. Don’t tell anyone. Record ice growth in the arctic. A Limerick.

The ice has come back to the Pole

The sunspots are playing a role.

But the press does not care

to report. They don’t dare.

For he who reports is a mole.

MoS2 Template Master

The early arrival of winter caused some yachts to be frozen in

https://lenbilen.com/2013/08/30/early-winter-in-the-arctic-nw-passage-blocked-yachts-caught-a-limerick/

There is more evidence of the coming “little ice age at:

https://lenbilen.com/2013/08/12/eleven-reasons-we-are-entering-a-new-little-ice-age/

 

Early winter in the Arctic, NW passage blocked. Yachts caught. A Limerick.

The winter came fast to the Arctic.

Some yachters’ reaction? Lethargic.

They believed global warming

and ignored every warning.

Their faith beat their judgment – it’s tragic.

News item from Sail – world.com:

http://www.sail-world.com/USA/North-West-Passage-blocked-with-ice%E2%80%94yachts-caught/113788

The Northwest Passage after decades of so-called global warming has a dramatic 60% more Arctic ice this year than at the same time last year. The future dreams of dozens of adventurous sailors are now threatened. A scattering of yachts attempting the legendary Passage are caught by the ice, which has now become blocked at both ends and the transit season may be ending early.

Check the map:

 Alt_North%20West%20Passageshowing%20ice%20blockages1

And the chart:

 N_stddev_timeseries

In fact, the Arctic has been colder than normal every day this year since May 6:

 meanT_20132

The situation is no better in the Antarctic:

 S_stddev_timeseries

It is clear that this year is a year with increasing ice cover. This is yet another sign of the upcoming little ice age, predicted by the behavior of the Sun.

article-2093264-1180A549000005DC-715_468x290

CO2, is it “Carbon Pollution?” A Limerick.

global_warming_name_changesSo, it happened again. Global warming was the word, then it became climate change, then it was briefly global climate disruption. Since we have not had any global warming at all for the last 17 years and the latest sign is that we will enter a new little ice age, Obama and the EPA are desperately trying to change the alarmists catchphrase again. This time they came up with “carbon pollution.” It is true, chimney sweeps know all about carbon pollution. Chimneys must be swept, or else we may have a chimney fire.  Is that what they mean? It must be, for CO2 is a totally clean gas. It has an effect on humans in large concentrations. Nuclear submarines  try to keep the CO2 levels below 8000 ppm for breathing air , or about 20 times current levels. Recent research indicate levels should be kept lower, maybe being capped at around 1500 ppm (see fig)

CO2-Figure2

The results are interesting. CO2 levels seem to affect initiative and strategic decision making the most. So it is because of all the people full of hot air in congress nothing gets done! However, it is to be noted that this test was performed without allowing for the test subject to accommodate to their new environment. When you climb mountains you have to adjust for weeks before you react normally again. This test is therefore very suspect. While it is true that the people is the subs do not like the air they are forced to breathe, it is not because of CO2, but regular body odor and other pollutants. They get used to it, and their decision making process is not negatively affected except for an occasional cabin fever.

On a serious note, the 17% increase in CO2 the last 30 years has made the earth about 10 % greener, and we can support another one billion people on earth without starvation, increase wildlife and plant life by about the same amount. Why could that be called “carbon pollution?”

Obama, why carbon pollution?

Ban coal is no real solution.

CO2, it is clean,

Makes our earth much more green.

Now that is the green revolution.