How well does my climate model check with reality for temperature rise from 1980 to 2022

This admittedly simple climate model takes into account the expected temperature influence for eac component, but it also takes into account that it is impossible to absorb more energy than is available for each component. When saturation occurs, that’s it. For calculations, see here and here

Summary of all greenhouse effect causes for temperature rise from 1980 until 2022:

Effect from water vapor increase: 0.37 C or 1.75 W/m2; 80.9% of total

Effect from rising CO2: 0.04C or 0.19 W/m2; 8.78% of total

Effect from rising Methane: 0.036 C or 0.17 W/m2, 7.86% of total

Effect from rising N2O: 0.0065 C or 0.031 W/m2 1.4% of total

Effect from rising Ozone: 0.0034C or 0.016 W/m2 0.7% of total

Effect from rising HFCs : 0.0015 C or 0.007 W/m2 0.3% of total

TOTAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE 1980 to 2022: 0.4544C or 2.164 W/m2

Summary of all non-greenhouse effect causes for climate change from 1980 to 2022:

Long term warming of the sun: 0.0000005C

Temperature decrease from the Milankovitch cycle: – 0.021 C or 0.1 W/m2

Temperature decrease from changing solar spot activity – 0.021 C or 0.1 W/m2

Temperature rise from decreasing cloud cover of 0.10 C or 0.48 W/m2.

Change from temperature rise of the Arctic 0.1 C or 0.48 W/m2

Pollution aerosols cause a temperature decrease of – 0.1 C or 0.48 W/m2

Temperature increase from greening of the earth 0.0063C or 0.030 W/m2

Temperature decrease from areas of desertification – 0.0015C or 0.007 W/m2.


TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 1980 TO 2022 FROM ALL CAUSES: 0.5172 C or 2.467 W/m2

This is well within the uncertainty band, being at least plus minus 10%, for such a crude calculation, but at least it is better than all climate models (except one) Here is the picture compared with other climate models:

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Retired engineer, graduated from Chalmers Technical University a long time ago with a degree in Technical Physics. Career in Aerospace, Analytical Chemistry, computer chip manufacturing and finally adjunct faculty at Pennsylvania State University, taught just one course in Computer Engineering, the Capstone Course.

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