This admittedly simple climate model takes into account the expected temperature influence for eac component, but it also takes into account that it is impossible to absorb more energy than is available for each component. When saturation occurs, that’s it. For calculations, see here and here
Summary of all greenhouse effect causes for temperature rise from 1980 until 2022:
Effect from water vapor increase: 0.37 C or 1.75 W/m2; 80.9% of total
Effect from rising CO2: 0.04C or 0.19 W/m2; 8.78% of total
Effect from rising Methane: 0.036 C or 0.17 W/m2, 7.86% of total
Effect from rising N2O: 0.0065 C or 0.031 W/m2 1.4% of total
Effect from rising Ozone: 0.0034C or 0.016 W/m2 0.7% of total
Effect from rising HFCs : 0.0015 C or 0.007 W/m2 0.3% of total
TOTAL TEMPERATURE CHANGE 1980 to 2022: 0.4544C or 2.164 W/m2
Summary of all non-greenhouse effect causes for climate change from 1980 to 2022:
Long term warming of the sun: 0.0000005C
Temperature decrease from the Milankovitch cycle: – 0.021 C or 0.1 W/m2
Temperature decrease from changing solar spot activity – 0.021 C or 0.1 W/m2
Temperature rise from decreasing cloud cover of 0.10 C or 0.48 W/m2.
Change from temperature rise of the Arctic 0.1 C or 0.48 W/m2
Pollution aerosols cause a temperature decrease of – 0.1 C or 0.48 W/m2
Temperature increase from greening of the earth 0.0063C or 0.030 W/m2
Temperature decrease from areas of desertification – 0.0015C or 0.007 W/m2.
TOTAL TEMPERATURE RISE FROM OTHER THAN GREENHOUSE GASES FROM 1980 to 2022: 0.0628 C or 0.303 W/m2
TEMPERATURE CHANGE FROM 1980 TO 2022 FROM ALL CAUSES: 0.5172 C or 2.467 W/m2
This is well within the uncertainty band, being at least plus minus 10%, for such a crude calculation, but at least it is better than all climate models (except one) Here is the picture compared with other climate models:
Len Bilén's blog, a blog about faith, politics and the environment. 