European electricity prices are sky- rocketing. The real price for going green and relying on interruptible cheap fossil fuel imports.

It used to be easy. In Europe, especially Denmark and Germany decided to go green with wind and solar power. Last year, Germany finally realized that Northern Europe was too cloudy for efficient solar power, but wind was still valid. They decided to decommission all nuclear power. The real cost of wind and solar power was 5.7 times the average cost of coal, gas hydroelectric and nuclear power. See chart that clearly shows the retail price of electricity versus percentage of renewable energy:

Those were the good old days. This year, with the war in Ukraine raging and with Russian sanctions, and the U.S. again being an energy importing country electricity rates are rising rapidly. These are recent European wholesale rates for electric production (distribution costs, profits and value added tax are then added on top of that)

The price is in Euros, which is now on par with the US dollar. The Swedish and Norwegian electricity pricing is interesting. See chart’

Sweden used to take care of its own energy, and price it low over the whole country. This year they have large regional differences, with retail electricity at about 22 cents/kWh in the two northern regions, and in the Southern two regions it can be as high as 75C/kWh. There are not enough transmission lines from North to South to equal out the pricing, and the transmission lines to Europe are also very limited. Norway on the other hand has a very good transmission line from Southern Norway to the European Continent, so Southern Norway went from having some of the lowest electricity prices in the world to over 50 c per kWh. In Northern Norway there are local grids powered by hydropower, so their cost is still essentially the cost of distribution.

The consumer price for electricity in U.K., Germany and France this winter is expected to exceed $1/kWh and even then there may be blackouts if they get a cold-snap. It is going to be a long cold winter in Europe.

In the COVID-19 fight: Who is the winner? Is it Sweden with herd immunity, or is it Portugal with nearly all people vaccinated? Time will tell.

When the COVID-19 menace entered Europe, Sweden was the only country that didn’t do a complete lock-down, they took the approach to let the pandemic rage and so achieve herd immunity; only protect the most vulnerable as best they could. The initial result seemed catastrophic, but herd immunity was more or less achieved, and the present results are impressive:

As we can see, for Sweden daily cases are down 87% from.previous maximum before vaccines began, and daily deaths did even better, down 96%. The total death rate per million people is 1,480 and the Swedish vaccination rate is 72%

How are the other European nations doing on the same score. They are listed in order of Increase/decrease in case rate, from worst to best

A= ratio of highest case rate before vaccines to current case rate

B= ratio of highest death rate before vaccines to current death rate

C= total deaths per million people this far

D= vaccination rate, at least one dose

Country               A          B               C        D

Norway           269%      50%       182     77%

Latvia               243%    136%    2,086    67%

Slovakia           233%      47%    2,502    47%

Greece             224%      89%   1,643     66%

Finland             183%     83%        223    77%

Romania          176%    213%   2,834    29%

Slovenia           163%      27%    2,393    58%

Netherlands    161%      23%    1,096    77%

Austria              157%     28%     1,305   68%

Ukraine            155%    299%    1,816    29%

Germany          149%     19%     1,175   70%

Bulgaria             141%   119%    3,903   16%

Croatia               140%    68%     2,469   51%

Russia                139%   219%    1,774   43%

Estonia               124%     85%    1,286   62%

Moldova            118%   127%   2,154    14%

Georgia             110%   186%    2,818   28%

Belarus              106%   170%       518   33%

Montenegro     106%   100%   3,545   42%

Serbia                  96%   112%   1,267    47%

Denmark             95%    20%       479    78%

Lithuania             92%    77%    2,399    69%

Chechia               90%     31%   2,953   60%

N. Macedonia    88%     45%    3,536   42%

Hungary              80%     44%   3,378    62%

Albania                72%     30%   1,049    32%

Ireland                 67%    19%    1,119    77%

U.K.                      64%    13%      2,097   74%

Belgium              60%     14%     2,268    75%

Poland                 52%     29%    2,107    54%

Bosnia & H.         51%    65%     3,736    26%

Switzerland        45%       8%     1,301    67%

Italy                      21%      8%     2,204    78%

France                  17%     6%     1,807     76%

Spain                     13%    5%      1,876   82%

Portugal                12%    3%     1,800    89%

Apocalypse in China. Two dams in inner Mongolia burst! Like catastrophic flooding in Europe, blame climate change first!

Two dams collapsed in the Hulunbuir proince on Sunday, July 18.

6,660 people were affected; 53,800 acres of farmland was flooded; 22 bridges, 124 culverts, and 15.6 kilometres of highway were destroyed….Casualties are unknown.

On July 20 was reported heavy rains in the Henan province caused flooding of the Yellow river and its tributaries. The yellow river normally does not even reach the ocean for 3 months of the year!

In Europe flooding occurred in at least 7 countries. It started with heavy rains in the beginning of July, some areas received 4 inches of rain, over three times the normal rainfall for all of July, then on July 14 fell another 4 inches. The dams were already full to the brim, so many areas were flooded.

Here is a very good summary of the events in Europe, and as you expected, climate change is blamed.

What did he mean by “We are now officially in the era of climate change.”

Europe and China have always had floods. In fact, casualties have gone down substantially in the last hundred and fifty years. Here is a chart from Europe:

Dams has always been important since the beginning of industrialization, first as water wheels to provide power, then with electricity the rivers were really exploited to provide hydroelectric power. Flood control was also important, and there is a trade-off, which is more important, electric power or flood prevention? To maximize electric output you want to have the dams filled to the brim at all times, for flood control you want to have the dams at half full, to always be ready to absorb the next rain. The problem is that in so doing the dams only produce 70% of maximum energy. To complicate matters, the last ten years there has been a large investment in wind and solar energy, and when the wind doesn’t blow and the sun doesn’t shine, the hydro-electric power storage will have to fill in the gaps, if we are to have any clean energy at all times.

This was the case in Europe in July. The early rains had filled up the dams to within a foot of maximum, and there had not been any controlled releases to prepare for the additional rains expected. Bureaucrats hate to do controlled releases, they see billions of Kilowatt hours go to waste. The bureaucracy failed, these decisions must be made with no delay, but if politicians rather than technically competent people are to make the decisions, the time delays inherent in any bureaucracy will make disasters like these happen again and again.

Obama loves Spain. It’s hard to explain. A Limerick.

Let’s follow the pattern of Spain (1)

Go green, go in debt, inflict pain.(2)

Too many are jobless (3)

The Socialists clueless (4)

They got voted out to Spain’s gain. (5) (6) (7)

(1) On eight occasions, the current occupant of the White House (Obama) has referred to the Spanish model as an example to follow.

(2) After a leaked Spanish government report, a newspaper in Spain (La Gaceta) confirms that the country’s “green economy” policies — the model for the Obama administration’s “green jobs” efforts — have been a disaster: expensive, ineffective, and unworkable

(3) The official jobless rate in Spain went from 7.9% in May 2007 to 19% in Nov 2009. It now stands at 22.8% (Oct 2011)

(4) The Spanish Socialist Workers’ Party (Spanish: Partido Socialista Obrero Español [parˈtiðo soθjaˈlista oˈβrero espaˈɲol], PSOE [peˈsoe]) is a social-democratic political party in Spain. Since the General election on 14 March 2004, the PSOE has been the governing party of Spain. The PSOE is a full member of the Party of European Socialists and the Socialist International.

(5) MADRID — Spaniards struggling with high unemployment and a credit squeeze delivered a punishing verdict on almost eight years of Socialist government at the ballot box on Nov 20 2011, turning to the conservative Popular Party in the hopes of alleviating the pain of Europe’s debt crisis. The Popular Party, led by Mariano Rajoy won 186 seats and a governing majority in the 350-seat lower house of Parliament, while the governing Socialists plummeted to 110 seats from 169. It was the Popular Party’s best showing, and the Socialists’ worst, since Spain’s return to democracy in the 1970s.

(6) Spain took advantage of strong demand to sell nearly twice as many bonds as initially planned at its final bond auction last year on Dec 15 2011, although market participants expect the country’s borrowing conditions to remain tough next year. The strong response to the auction, which brought much-needed respite to the battered Spanish bond market, helped power the country’s bonds higher, with the yield on bonds due in two years falling to their lowest levels since late October.

(7) Jan 27 2012 Fitch Ratings has resolved the Negative Rating Watch on six Eurozone sovereigns, downgrading the IDRs for Belgium, Cyprus, Italy, Slovenia and Spain while affirming ratings for Ireland. The Negative Outlook on all six countries indicates a slightly greater than 50% chance of a downgrade over a two-year time horizon.



European Muslims vote Socialist.

A poll taken in Western Sweden between 2000 and 2002 (they take thorough samples, analyze them down to the last detail and take their time to release the results; it was done by the University of Gothenburg) shows that 70% of the Muslims voted Social Democrat or had Social Democrat sympathy. Only 4% voted for any of the moderate parties. In Sweden the most conservative party is called the Moderates, kind of like a moderate Democrat in the U.S. In Germany in 2005 nearly 90% of the Turks (99% Muslims) voted either SPD (Social Democrats) or the Green Party. In the Dutch provincial elections in 2006 84% of the Turks voted Social Democratic, 78% of the Moroccans voted Social Democratic, and 12% voted Green-left. The Center right  Party got only 1% of all immigrant votes.

These were the attitudes of all Muslims before Obama entered world stage. One can just imagine what the attitudes would be today. One thing is clear, it is hard to break 100%. This can only be done with taxes.