When Palin endorsed, her act bumped Trump up ten.
With Kelley the Trump-killer in it again,
he refused to debate,
lost it all, sealed his fate.
A second place loser, all pain and no gain.
Donald Trump was solidly in second place in Iowa, about 5 points behind Ted Cruz. Marco Rubio was way behind. Then, on Jan 19 Sarah Palin endorsed him, an endorsement worth at least ten percentage points. See graph:
Then Donald Trump refused to debate right before the Iowa caucus unless Megyn Kelly was removed as a moderator. Unlike CNN, which caved in to Trump’s demands, Fox News stood their ground and refused to cave in, “on journalistic grounds.” 
The media should never cave in to political pressure. Having skipped the debate, Cruz and Rubio had the leadership fight to themselves, and could shine, all at the expense of Trump. The chart to the left shows the high water mark for Donald Trump.
Between the debate and the Iowa caucus Trump lost all the ground he gained from the Palin endorsement. Ted Cruz held his ground, but the big gainer was Rubio.
It is now a three way race, and this will very likely lead to a brokered convention.
All bets ate off.
I can understand Sarah Palin’s initial endorsement of Donald Trump, with his broad crossover appeal to disenchanted people, then having a chance to win the primaries outright. With his refusal to debate we are almost ensured a brokered convention. Personally I prefer Sarah Palin to enter the race on her own, making it a brokered convention, containing a majority of true conservative delegates.
Len Bilén's blog, a blog about faith, politics and the environment. 