Tag: BDI

Baltic Dry Index at a eighteenth all time low. Major trouble ahead. (Update 17).

January 7 2016 the Baltic Dry Index hit an all time low at 445, and has been in new all time low record territory since Dec 14.  Before that the all time low was 509 on Feb 19 2015.

What is the BDI you say?

The BDI is a very leading indicator indicating guesses on the amount and price for shipping dry freight worldwide in the future. It is very volatile, as we can see from the chart with a high of nearly twelve thousand in the spring of 2008 and dropping to less than 700 a couple of months before the economic crash of 2008.

The new all time low of 445 signals major trouble ahead.

Update: The BDI index hit a new all time low of 429 on Friday 1/8.

Update 2: The BDI index hit another all time low of 415 on Monday 1/11.

Update 3: The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 402 on Tuesday 1/12.

Update 4: The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 394 on Wednesday 1/13.

Update 5: The BDI index hit a sixth daily all time low of 383 on Thursday 1/14.

Update 6: The BDI index hit a seventh daily all time low of 373 on Friday 1/15.

Update 7: The BDI index hit an eighth daily all time low of 369 on Monday 1/18.

Update 8: The BDI index hit a ninth daily all time low of 363 on Tuesday 1/19.

Update 9: The BDI index hit a tenth daily all time low of 358 on Wednesday 1/20.

Update 10: The BDI index hit an eleventh daily all time low of 355 on Thursday 1/21.

Update 11: The BDI index hit a twelfth daily all time low of 354 on Friday 1/21.

Update 12: After  one day when the BDI index held steady the BDI index hit a thirteenth all time low of 345 on Tuesday 1/26.

Update 13: The BDI index continued its decline to levels much below operating cost and is now at 337 another new all time low on Wednesday 1/27.

Update 14: When will it stop? The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 325 on Thursday 1/28.

Update 15: How low can it go? Update 15: How low can it go? The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 317 on Friday 1/29.

Update 16: Down, down, down, down, down. The BDI index hit yet another all time low of 314 on Monday 2/1.

Update 17: The BDI index hit an eighteenth all time low of 310 on Tuesday 2/2.

This is a very strong global recession signal, indicating a future worldwide trading collapse, much worse than in 2008.

Note: It continues to go down. The statistics can be followed at: https://lenbilen.com/2016/02/03/the-bdi-index-hit-a-nineteenth-new-all-time-low-of-303-today-the-worldwide-economic-downturn-is-gaining-speed/

Trouble ahead. The Baltic Dry Index hit a fourth time all time low. 2/19 at 509.

baltic-dry-index-23This morning (Feb 12) the Baltic Dry Index hit an all time low at 553. The previous low of 554 was set on Aug 6 1985. What is the BDI you say?

The BDI is a very leading indicator signaling future guesses on the amount of shipping of dry freight that are to be conducted in the future. It is very volatile as we can see from these charts with a high of nearly 12000 in the spring of 2008 and dropping to about 700 a couple of months before the crash of 2008.

The new low  of 553 signals major trouble ahead.

A hint is in the Chinese trade balance for Jan 2015.

China Posts Highest Trade Surplus on Record in January.

China reported a USD 60 billion trade surplus in January of 2015 compared with a USD 31.86 billion surplus a year earlier as imports fell at a faster pace than exports.

In January, imports dropped by 19.9 percent toCNY 860 billion year-on-year (approximately USD 140 billion) with imports from US down 9.3 percentExports unexpectedly declined by 3.3 percent to CNY 1.23 trillion (approximately USD 200 billion), but exports to the US rose 4.9 percent.
Since the Lunar New Year typically falls in January or February, the country’s trade figure in early year often considered as volatile, due to companies rushing to fill orders ahead of holidays. What is doubly troubling is that this year the Chinese new year fell in February. Last year it fell in January, so the declines are doubly troubling.
There is trouble ahead.
Update 1: Friday 2/13 it hit 530, a new record low
Update 2: Tuesday 2/17 it hit 522 a new all-time low.
Update 3: Wednesday 2/18 hit 516, a new all time low.
Update 4: Thursday 2/19 hit 509, a fourth new all time low in a row.