James 3. We can tame a horse, put a bridle in his mouth to control him, steer a ship with a small rudder but we can not tame our tongue. There are two types of wisdom, heavenly wisdom, coming from God and earthly wisdom coming from man that can even be demonic. Heavenly wisdom produces peacemakers, earthly wisdom, not so much.
Ezekiel 28 contains a proclamation against and a lamentation for the king of Tyre. It also has a proclamation against Sidon and there is still a future blessing for Israel.
Ezekiel 29 delivers a proclamation against Egypt, the bad news is that Babylonia will plunder Egypt.
The Corona-virus pandemic has now been with us nine months and for the first time the trends ate looking better, giving us hope that the worst is over.
In the beginning the worldwide death rate was 8,65% and it is now down to 1.31%, a reduction of 84.8%. Total deaths worldwide are about 1,200,000 which is still less then the annual TB deaths that amount to 1.6 million, of which 300,000 are HIV positive.
The corresponding numbers for U.S.A : 7.02% death rate at the beginning of the disease. It is now down to 1.04%, an 85.2% decrease. With unrestricted availability to take HCQ+ we can reduce the death rate even further.
Now it is getting interesting. While nearly all industrialized nations shut down their non-essential functions, such as schools, elective surgery, elective medical diagnostics, non food stores, flights, travel, restaurants, non essential government services and the like Sweden took a different approach. They kept their elementary schools open, did not close stores and restaurants, only large gatherings, mandated increased hygiene and to practice social distancing, and then they let the virus rage as a normal flu, and waited for the so called “herd immunity.” Wearing masks were never mandated, only encouraged when social distancing was impossible to maintain. Sweden did their best though to protect the vulnerable.
In the beginning the results were disastrous. The initial death rate was over 21%, it seemed like a failed attempt, but then things started to calm down. In late spring the death rate had settled down to 9.2%, but then came a second wave of cases and everyone was bracing for the worst. But the death rate did not rise, and is now down to 0.24%. (Oct 30)
The rest of Europe (except Belarus) did try to limit the spread of the coronavirus using heavy lockdowns. This limited the spread of the virus for a while, and through the summer it looked like it was the right thing to do, but “herd immunity was never achieved. Now, when the flu season has arrived the cases are rising again, and for the western Europe nations cases are now rising, and so are deaths. In Germany the death rate has increased 14-fold since the summer minimum, in Spain the death rate is increased 80-fold, in France the death rate is increased 30-fold. The United Kingdom death rate is increased 35-fold and the kingdom is ready to issue another draconian lockdown, other countries are also issuing curfews and other restrictions.
The virus will run its course until herd immunity is achieved. Vaccines will finally limit the pandemic. Thanks to President Trump’s “warp speed” initiative, paying private enterprise to produce the vaccine at the same time level 3 testing is underway so the vaccine is available as soon as it is approved, vaccines will be available weeks from now rather than years from now.
This is expensive, but if any of the 6 vaccines succeed, it was worth it, if all fails we are no worse off than if we wreck the economy with another lockdown that only delays the inevitable, herd immunity achieved years from now with more deaths than if we had followed the example of Sweden.
Today we read the second chapter of the letter of James and one chapter of Ezekiel.
October 31: James 2, Ezekiel 27 (click on the chapter to begin reading).
James 2. Do not show favoritism, especially to wealthy or famous people! The chapter goes on to show that faith without works is dead. The example is Abraham. The apostle Paul used the same example to show that Abraham was justified apart from works in Romans 4:2-3 “For if Abraham were justified by works, he hath whereof to glory; but not before God.For what saith the scripture? Abraham believed God, and it was counted unto him for righteousness.” This seeming contradiction is solved in Ephesians 2:8-10 “For by grace are ye saved through faith; and that not of yourselves: it is the gift of God:Not of works, lest any man should boast.For we are his workmanship, created in Christ Jesus unto good works, which God hath before ordained that we should walk in them.”
I am a climate realist, that means I look at the totality of what is happening to the climate with increasing CO2 levels, and what it means for our future.
Climate alarmists and IPCC believe that the thermal response to increasing CO2 is a feedback gain from increasing water vapor that results from higher temperatures, leading to much higher temperatures. Current climate model averages indicate a temperature rise of 4.7 C by 2100 if nothing is done, 4.65 C if U.S keeps all its Paris commitments and 4.53 C if all countries keep their part of the agreement. In all cases, with or without Paris agreement we are headed for a disaster of biblical proportions.
As the chart indicates, implementing all of the Paris agreement will delay the end of mankind as we know it by at most 4 years.
The cost is staggering. The developing countries want at least 100 billion dollars a year to implement the Paris accord, all paid for by the developed countries. The most infuriating thing about that is that China is considered a developing country, and being a developed country The U.S., while reducing their CO2 footprint will be paying China until the year 2030 to further develop their coal burning electric plants until the China CO2 output is six times our output. They had plans to add 65 GW (+6.5%) of coal-burning power plants this year alone to their grid. The china-virus delayed that by a few months, but their intent is still to dominate the world by 2025. They already consume 48% of the world’s output of coal, produce over half of the world’s steel and cement (it takes a lot of reinforced concrete to create multiple islands in the South China Sea).
Myself and quite a few scientists, meteorologists, but mostly engineers believe the feedback loop in nature is far more complicated than what the climate models suggest, in fact, there is a large negative feedback in the system, preventing a temperature runaway, and we have the observations to prove it. The negative feedback manifests itself in 2 ways:
Inorganic feedback, represented by clouds. If there were no clouds, the tropics would average a temperature of 140 F thanks to the greenhouse effect. The clouds reflect back up to 300 W/m2 into space rather than the same energy being absorbed into water or soil. Clouds are highly temperature dependent, especially cumulus and cumulonimbus clouds. The figure below shows temperature at the equator in the Pacific Ocean.
Cumulus clouds are formed in the morning, earlier the warmer it is, and not at all if it is cold, thunderstorms appear when it is warm enough. The figure shows how temperature in the equatorial Pacific rises until about 8:30 a.m, then actually declines between 9 and 12 a.m. even as the sun continues to rise. The feedback, which was positive at low temperatures becomes negative at warmer temperatures, and in the equatorial doldrums, surface temperature has found its equilibrium. No amount of CO2 will change that. Equatorial temperature follows the temperature of the ocean, warmer when there is an el niño, cooler when there is a la niña. Here is a chart of temperature increases since satellite measurements began as a function of latitude.
The tropics follow the ocean temperature closely, no long term rising trend, the extra-tropics are also stable.
Not so at the poles. the temperature record indicate a noticeable warming with large spikes up and down, up to 3 degree Celsius difference from year to year, especially the Arctic. So, how much has the Arctic melted? Here is a chart of Arctic ice cover for 31 May for the last 39 years.
If this trend continues, all ice may melt in 300 to 400 years, faster if there is further warming and nothing else is changing. Let’s take a look at the Arctic above the 80th latitude, an area of about 3,85 million square kilometers, less than 1% of the earth’s surface, but it is there where global warming is most pronounced. Here are two charts from 2016 and 2017.
Starting at summer 2016, the Arctic was melting quite normally, but something else happened that is not shown in the chart. Every 5 years or so, the Arctic suffer a large storm with full hurricane strength during the summer. In 2016 there was no one, but two such storms, and as they happened late in the season when the ice is rotten they result in a large ice loss, making the ice minimum the lowest on record, and the ice volume nearly 4,000 Gigatons (Gt) less than the 30 year normal. Then the temperature from October thru April did run 7 degree Celsius warmer than normal with a spike as high as 20 degrees warmer. Yet today the deficit is down to 2,500 Gt. What happened? It snowed more than normal. In the Arctic, it gets warmer under clouds, warmer still when it snows. Take a look at Greenland and what happened during the freezing season. It snowed and snowed and Greenland accumulated 150 Gt more ice than normal. So, at that point in the season we were a total of 1650 Gt ahead of previous year, and this was with Arctic temperatures being seven degrees warmer than normal during the cold season. The counter-intuitive conclusion is that it may very well be that warmer temperatures produces accumulation of snow and ice, colder temperatures with less snow accumulates less. What happens during the short Arctic summer? With more snow accumulated it takes longer to melt prevous year’s snow, so the temperature stays colder longer. In 2017 the Arctic temperature was running colder than normal every day since May 1. If this melting period ended without melting all snow, multi year ice will accumulate, and if it continued unabated, a new ice age would start.
The second feedback loop is organic. More CO2 means more plant growth. According to NASA there has been a significant greening of the earth, more than 10% since satellite measurements begun. This results in a cooling effect everywhere, except in areas that used to be treeless where they have a warming effect. The net effect is that we can now feed 2 billion more people than before without using more fertilizer. Check this picture from NASA, (now they can publish real science again) showing the increased leaf area extends nearly everywhere.
In addition, more leafs changes the water cycle, increases evapotranspiration, and more trees and vegetation reduces erosion and unwanted runoff. Good news all around.
In short, taking into account the negative feedback occurring the earth will warm up less than 0.5 degrees from now, not at all in the tropics, and less than 3 degrees at the poles. Without the Paris agreement there will be no increase in the death rates in the cities, except from the slight increase of city temperatures due to the urban heat effect. With the Paris agreement we will have to make draconian cuts in our use of electricity, meaning using much less air conditioning and even less heating, and life expectancy will decline.
We need energy. It takes a lot of energy to clean up the planet. Developing nations should be encouraged to use electricity rather than cooking by dried cow-dung. Coal is limited, and we should leave some for our great great grandchildren. Oil and gas should be preserved for aviation, since there is no realistic alternative with a high enough energy density. Therefore I am an advocate for Thorium based nuclear energy, being safer than Uranium based nuclear energy, and, properly implemented will produce about 0.01% of the long term radioactive waste compared to conventional nuclear power plants. And there is a million year supply of Thorium available. Once the electricity power plants have fully switched away from coal and gas, then and only then is it time to switch to electric cars. The case for Thorium generated electric energy can be found here.
Today we read the first chapter of the letter of James and one chapter of Ezekiel.
October 30: James 1, Ezekiel 26 (click on the chapter to begin reading).
James 1 is more than any letter a bridge between the Old and the New Testament. It starts out with a greeting to the twelve tribes scattered abroad. It encourages to meet trials with joy, demands the rich to do good, love God under trials, to be swift to hear and slow to wrath, and above all. be doers and not hearers only of the word, for that is true religion – faith in action.
Ezekiel 26 is a devastating prophecy against Tyre.
Psalm 133, a Song of Ascents, of David. This Psalm has only three verses, and the point of it is that it is good to dwell in unity.
Psalm 134 is the last of the songs of ascents. 3 verses short and to the point. Bless the Lord and He will bless you from Zion.
Ezekiel 23 tells in some length of two harlot sisters, one is Samaria, the other Jerusalem. God will execute judgment on both Jerusalem and Samaria.
Ezekiel 24, God told Ezekiel to put on a cooking pot, fill it with water and the parts from the best animal, boil it dry, let the kettle burn up the meat completely and char the bones. So shall it be done with the city of bloodshed. Ezekiel’s wife died. Put up a stiff upper lip, Ezekiel!
Ezekiel 25 gives prophecies against Ammon, Moab, Edom and Philistia.
Psalm 131, This is the shortest of the songs of ascents, only 3 verses. David showed his contentment in hoping in the Lord.
Psalm 131, This is the longest of the song of ascents, 18 verses. Remember God’s promise to David, to Israel and to the future Messiah.
Ezekiel 21. Babylon was chosen as the sword of God for judgement, a sword against Judah and the Ammonites.
Ezekiel 22. Jerusalem had become a morally, ethically and spiritually bankrupt city, God found no righteous people, much less leaders, so He was going to destroy it, with drought and fire.
Proverbs 19, Proverbs of Solomon. There is wisdom in getting along with others, but do not give in to the wicked ones, a prudent wife is a gift is from the Lord, but a foolish son is his fathers ruin.
Ezekiel 20, Though Israel pleaded with God, He would not listen because of their rebellious idol worship. God through Ezekiel then retold the history of Israel and their idolatry and blasphemy, Israel will be severely punished, but in the end, God will restore Israel. The chapter ends with a prophecy against the South, God will destroy the Southern forests.
Psalm 129, a Song of Ascents. In spite of many afflictions, Israel prevails thanks to the blessing of the Lord.
Psalm 130, a Song of Ascents. “Out of the depths” God helps and forgives. Wait for the Lord in hope, and He will redeem Israel.
Ezekiel 18. “The soul who sins will die”. By this statement an old proverb is refuted. Instead of the fathers sins being visited on the children it is the individual’s responsibility to turn to God and Live.
Ezekiel 19 is a lament about Israel’s princes degraded, and a second lament about the fruitful vine withering.
Len Bilén's blog, a blog about faith, politics and the environment. 