The March for Science Apr 22 2017. Is it real Science or “Politically Correct Science?”

We’ re marching for Science, Yippee!

Obama is gone. We are free

to explore what is true.

No more models will do.

The Climate has changed, totally!

The Climate doomsayers are out in force are out in force again. Here is a sign

What stands out is the headline “The “Debate” is over”

So, let’s see what facts are in.

CO2 is a strong greenhouse gas, second only to water vapor in affecting the climate on earth. If CO2 were to double from pre-industrial times, which it will have done in 50 years or so, global temperatures on earth will increase about 0.9 degree Celsius from pre-industrial times, if that was the only factor affecting the greenhouse effect. This corresponds to a radiative forcing of  4.9 W/m2. But water vapor is a stronger greenhouse gas than CO2, and, this is important, they are not orthogonal as defined by chemometrics, that means, the responses from water vapor and CO2 are not independent, and they are only partly additive. Check this figure: The bottom line is the absorption of water vapor, the green line is for CO2. The area of interest is between 8 and 20 microns, where CO2 absorbs more than H20 and is at the maximum of outgoing black body emission at 0F. The CO2 concentration is on the order of 400 ppm, the average global H2O concentration at surface level is around 12,500 ppm. Since both H2O and CO2 absorb in the same area, if water vapor concentration is more than 30 times higher, the CO2 con- centration doesn’t matter, it is all absorbed by H2O, and this is the reason there is no hotspot in the equatorial troposphere. All climate models predict there must be one, so there must be something seriously wrong with all climate models.

What does IPCC do with this evidence?

IPCC ignores it, and claim the models are still correct.

This is not science, but politically correct science denial.

We are now in a nineteen year Climate “pause”, where increasing cloud cover with its strong negative feedback cancels out the potential temperature rise of rising CO2.

We are in the bog-building phase of the inter-glacial period, and the long term temperature trend is down, rising CO2 will delay the onset of the next ice age by maybe 2000 years.

The real debate has just started, and this time, let us talk real science, verified by observations, not fear-mongering  political statements.

Published by

lenbilen

Engineer, graduated from Chalmers Technical University a long time ago with a degree in Technical Physics. Career in Aerospace, Analytical Chemistry, and chip manufacturing. Presently adjunct faculty at PSU, teaching one course in Computer Engineering, the Capstone Course.

2 thoughts on “The March for Science Apr 22 2017. Is it real Science or “Politically Correct Science?””

  1. Len, the most common estimate of the forcing from a doubling of CO2 is 3.7 ±0.4 W/m², rather than 4.9 W/m².

    Prof. Wm Happer has found evidence that CO2’s forcing is commonly overestimated by about 40%, which, if correct, would reduce that 3.7 W/m² to about 2.6 W/m².

    Also, we’re no longer “in a nineteen year Climate ‘pause’.” The big 2015-16 El Niño put an end to The Pause in global warming, at least temporarily. A strong La Niña (as sometimes happens after an El Niño) could bring back The Pause, but it is looking more and more like we’ll only get a weak La Niña this time. So, at least for a few years, The Pause in global warming is over. (You could still say “slowdown,” though.)

    1. Thanks, Dave. I used an old estimate from an alarmist.
      The nineteen year pause will reappear later this summer, it has snowed enough over Greenland and the Arctic to make the multi-year ice white. When it was snowing it was up to 20 degrees warmer than normal.

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