COVID response for Sweden and Michigan. Which response is better?

Of all the states in America Michigan is the state that is most like Sweden.

Michigan has a population of 10 million, Sweden 10.2 million

Median age in Michigan is 39.8 years, Sweden’s is 41.1 years.

Michigan has the Upper Peninsula, Sweden has Norrland.

Michigan has slightly colder winters and slightly warmer summers than Sweden, but the average temperature is about the same.

Both Michigan and Sweden got hit hard by the corona virus, but their response was quite different.

Sweden never closed the schools for children under 15, Michigan is still debating when to open the schools again after they were shutdown.

Sweden never closed the stores or restaurants completely, Michigan did.

Both Michigan and Sweden closed large events and other gatherings. No sports, and no concerts.

In Sweden wearing masks is not mandatory, only recommended, as long as social distancing and personal hygiene is practiced.

Sweden did what they could to shield the most vulnerable from the injection, in Michigan they moved COVID infected patients from overcrowded nursing homes in the Detroit area to nursing homes upstate with excess capacity.

Michigan recently delayed the partial opening of the state for another two weeks, one more delay of many. In addition the Governor, Gretchen Wittmer issued draconian regulation on what could or could not be done, leading to protests. One protest sign read:

Other regulations were just as ridiculous, you could go out in a row-boat or a sailboat as long as you were no more than two in the boat, but motorboats were verboten. And don’t even dream about visiting your cottage in the woods; horror of horrors!

How did Sweden and Michigan fare? Check these charts and judge for yourselves:

Michigan total cases as of July 14: 78,914 total deaths 6,330 Sweden total cases 76,001, total deaths 5,455

Cases started rising around Jun 15, two weeks after the protests started

The number of deaths daily has stabilized and remained constant for the last month

The new cases are in a rapid decline. Sweden may be close to have achieved herd immunity.

The number of new death are racing to nearly zero.

 

The case for Thorium. 18. Russia has an active Thorium program.

Russia has an active Thorium program This is a self-contained Thorium Nuclear Reactor on a barge. Coolant readily available. Hoist it a couple of cables and the town to be serviced will have all the power it needs. This is especially useful in the Arctic. Russia is trying to establish Arctic domination, both commercially and militarily. They have over 30 ice breakers, some of them nuclear. U.S. has two, only one of which are operational.
Russia is also trying to commercialize hybrid fusion-fission reactors:
Nuclear Engineering International: 29 May 2018

Russia develops a fission-fusion hybrid reactor.
A new fission-fusion hybrid reactor will be assembled at Russia’s Kurchatov Institute by the end of 2018, Peter Khvostenko, scientific adviser of the Kurchatov complex on thermonuclear energy and plasma technologies, announced on 14 May. The physical start-up of the facility is scheduled for 2020.The hybrid reactor combines the principles of thermonuclear and nuclear power – essentially a tokamak fusion reactor and a molten salt fission reactor. Neutrons produced in a small tokamak will be captured in a molten salt blanket located around tokamak. The facility will use Thorium as a fuel, which is cheaper and more abundant than uranium. Moreover, unlike a fusion reactor, a hybrid will not require super high temperatures to generate energy.

  • A new paper describes computer simulations of a hybrid fusion-fission reactor that runs on thorium.
  • Thorium has benefits compared with uranium reaction and has been endorsed by Democratic presidential candidate Andrew Yang.
  • In the reactor, plasma fusion generates neutrons that fuel subsequent fission.

 

Hybrid reactors reduce the impact of the nuclear fuel cycle on the environment. The concept combines conventional fission processes and fusion reactor principles, comprising a fusion reactor core in combination with a subcritical fission reactor. The results of the fusion reaction, which would normally be absorbed by the cooling system of the reactor, would feed into the fission section, and sustain the fission process. Thorium in a molten salt blanket will enable breeding of uranium-233.

Some of the expected advantages include:

  • Utilization of actinides and transmutation from long-lived radioactive waste;
  • An increase in energy recovered from uranium by a large factor;
  • The inherent  safety of the system, which can be shut down rapidly; and
  • High burnup of fissile materials leaving few by-products.

The hybrid fission-fusion reactor is seen as a near-term commercial application of fusion pending further research on pure fusion power systems.

This is very interesting, and I will follow up when I get more information.

July 15, read through the Holy Bible in a year in Power-point, with comments.

Today we read the twelfth chapter of the Apostle Paul’s second letter to the Corinthians and the first three chapters of Job.

July 15: 2 Corinthians 12, Job 1, Job 2, Job 3 (click on the chapter to begin reading)

2 Corinthians 12. Paul described his vision of paradise and his thorn in the flesh (“for when I am weak, then I am strong”.)  The marks of an Apostle are signs, wonders and miracles, and Paul displayed his love for the Church.

Job 1. This is the oldest book in the Bible and predates even the Pentateuch. It is written in old Aramaic.  Job and his Family lived in in Uz, righteous before God. Satan attacked Job’s Character and as a result Job lost his property and his children.

Job 2. Satan Attacked Job’s Health, and then was visited by three friends, keeping him company for a week without saying a word.

Job 3. Job deplored his birth speaking to his his three friends, and they still kept quiet.

The evidence is clear. The rise in COVID cases is due to protests, not reopening the economy

On May 25 George Floyd was murdered by a policeman in broad daylight. What followed was protests, night after night in many cities. Over 500 cities have had protest rallies. The rallies, while mostly peaceful all violate COVID protocol, many protestors do not wear masks, social distancing is not practiced, and loud shouting, breathing hard through your mouth emitting COVID mist is going on for hours.

The incubation time for COVID infection is from 5 to 15 days, the COVID cases should start increase about June 8 or so, it took a few days for the protesters to get organized. The typical age for protesters is 20 to 25 years, so death rates would not necessarily increase, since the risk for death from the coronavirus doubles for every 9 years you age.

On the other hand, if the spike in COVID cases is due to reopening the economy, the death rate should follow the increase in cases by about 10 days.

Let us look at the COVID cases for U.S.A. as of July 13:

As we can see, the U.S.A. was on a slow decline in cases until about June 14, and a much larger decline in death cases until about Jul 8. The rise in cases since June 14 is much larger than the rise in deaths. This means the increase in cases is from protestors, not from opening the economy.

A most interesting case is Florida

From new cases being about 1000 per day, they started increasing on about June 8 and are now over 10,000 a day. Death rates on the other hand have less than doubled.

Another interesting state id Arizona:

From about 300 new cases a day up to June 5, it has  since increased tenfold. The death rate meanwhile has less than tripled, which again means it is the young people that are getting the virus.

There has been about 20 million protestors since the process started. It is impossible to contact trace 20 million people, many of which want to do away with all authority anyway, so we will have to settle for herd immunity. Following the example of Sweden herd immunity should start to manifest itself in a month or so, In New York City it has already started.

In any case, we will probably achieve herd immunity before a vaccine is available.

 

 

The case for Thorium. 17. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors will lessen the need for an expanded national grid.

Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors will lessen the need for an expanded national grid. The National Electric grid is at the breaking point. It needs to be expanded, but neighborhood resistance is great in many areas where they need an expanded grid the most. The grid is also sensitive to terrorism activities.

As we can see the national grid is extensive. It is also under severe strain at peak demand. Wind power will only increase the strain since most wind power is generated where few people live and work. A way to lessen the dependency on the national grid is to sprinkle it with many small to medium sized Thorium Nuclear Power generators. They can be placed on barges in rivers and along the coast where the need is greatest, giving the grid maximum flexibility to respond in  case of an emergency. LFTR’s do not depend on water for their cooling, so they can be placed anywhere, even in extreme arid areas. Since LFTR can be placed very close to urban centers, transmission losses are kept low. (The Texas grid is separately controlled from the rest of the grid.)

July 14, read through the Holy Bible in a year in Power-point, with comments.

Today we read the eleventh chapter of the Apostle Paul’s second letter to the Corinthians and the last three chapters of Esther.

July 14: 2 Corinthians 11, Esther 8, Esther9, Esther 10 (click on the chapter to begin reading)

2 Corinthians 11. Paul showed concern for the Corinthians faithfulness, warned them against false Apostles, “for Satan himself is transformed into an angel of light.” Paul put forward a reluctant boasting about his sufferings for Christ.

Esther 8. With Haman out of the way, the Jews were still in peril, since the edict of the king could not be changed, so Esther pleaded again to the king and a new edict was proclaimed, the the Jews had every right to defend themselves and strike back, and so Esther saved the Jews.

Esther 9. The Jews triumphed, and the first Purim was celebrated.

Esther 10, epilogue about the greatness of Mordecai.

The case for Thorium. 16. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors will work both as Base Load and Load Following power plants.

Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors will work both as Base Load and Load Following power plants. LFTR’s operate at a much higher temperature than conventional power plants and operate at about 45% electricity conversion efficiency, as opposed to 38% or lower for steam generators. In addition, because of the higher operating temperature it is ideal for hydrogen generation. The reactor would use the electricity generation to satisfy the current demand and produce hydrogen during times of low demand. This hydrogen would be temporarily stored and used for electricity production at peak demand. And  hydrogen power produces only water when burned, no CO2  or polluting fumes are generated. With the objective of reducing the cost of hydrogen production,  solid oxide electrolyser cells (SOECs) are especially well suited.  SOECs operate at high temperatures, typically around 800 °C. At these high temperatures a significant amount of the energy required can be provided as thermal energy (heat), and as such is termed High temperature electrolysis.

July 13, read through the Holy Bible in a year in Power-point, with comments.

Today we read the tenth chapter of the Apostle Paul’s second letter to the Corinthians and four chapters of Esther.

July 13: 2 Corinthians 10, Esther 4, Esther5, Esther 6, Esther7 (click on the chapter to begin reading)

2 Corinthians 10. The Apostle Paul reminded the Corinthians that this is a spiritual war “For the weapons of our warfare are not carnal, but mighty through God to the pulling down of strong holds.”  He defined his authority and the limits of his authority; it is all in Christ: “But he that glorieth, let him glory in the Lord.”

Esther 4, Mordecai persuaded Esther to risk her life to save the Jews, and Esther’s response was “If I perish, I perish”

Esther 5, Esther prepared for a banquet with only her, the King and Haman in attendance. Meanwhile Haman’s rage against Mordecai was so great that he had built a seventy-five feet high gallows, on which to hang Mordecai.

Esther 6. As it so happened, the king had a case of insomnia. To become drowsy he had the annals read to him, which told that Mordecai had averted a coup. During the banquet the king wanted to honor somebody, and rather than Haman, Mordecai was honored.

Esther 7. And so it was, Haman was hanged on the gallows he had built for Mordecai.

The case for Thorium. 15. No need for evacuation zones, Liquid Fuel Thorium Reactors can be placed near urban areas.

No need for evacuation zones, can be placed near urban areas. Molten Salt Thorium reactors operate at atmospheric pressure and have a very high negative temperature coefficient, so there is no risk for a boil-over. They are easily made earthquake-safe and no pressure vessel is needed. This will greatly simplify the approval process, no need for elaborate evacuation plans have to be developed. Since the Three Mile Island accident there was a thirty year gap in approvals for new nuclear plants. The “not in my backyard ” mentality reigned supreme, and delay and denial was the rule of the years. But the lawyers still got their share, leading to escalating cost for new nuclear power. In the early days of nuclear power France took the approach of building some of their nuclear plants near the Belgian and German border, so they only had to develop half of an  evacuation plan, leaving the other half to their understanding neighbors. It also leads to placing the nuclear plants where there is the least resistance, not where they are needed the most, adding to the strain on the electric grid. Liquid Fluoride Thorium Reactors have one additional advantage. They do not need access to water, so they can be placed even in desert areas.

July 12, read through the Holy Bible in a year in Power-point, with comments.

Today we read the ninth chapter of the Apostle Paul’s second letter to the Corinthians and two chapters of Esther.

July 12: 2 Corinthians 9, Esther 2, Esther3 (click on the chapter to begin reading)

2 Corinthians 9  Paul gave advice in how to administer the gift, one way being the cheerful (hilarious) giver. Thanks be to God for His unspeakable gift!

Esther 2. The search for a new queen was on and Esther became the new queen. Mordecai, Esther’s cousin, uncovered a conspiracy against the king.

Esther 3. Enter Haman, an Agagite. (There was great animosity between the Agagites and the Jews since the time of king Saul.) He was great in the kingdom, and everybody bowed down to him – except Mordecai. This enraged Haman, so he offered 750 tons of silver to the king’s treasury for being allowed to kill all Jews. Fair enough, deal signed and sealed, (and the king’s seal cannot be undone.)